In This Article:
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after investigating Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX:HVN), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Harvey Norman Holdings:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.093 = AU$661m ÷ (AU$7.9b - AU$796m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
So, Harvey Norman Holdings has an ROCE of 9.3%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 9.3%, it's still a low return by itself.
Check out our latest analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings
In the above chart we have measured Harvey Norman Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Harvey Norman Holdings .
So How Is Harvey Norman Holdings' ROCE Trending?
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Harvey Norman Holdings doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 12% over the last five years. However it looks like Harvey Norman Holdings might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
The Key Takeaway
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Harvey Norman Holdings' reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 49% over the last five years. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.
Harvey Norman Holdings does have some risks though, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Harvey Norman Holdings that you might be interested in.