Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSE:ATH) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals.

Following the latest upgrade, Athabasca Oil's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be CA$1.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to leap 329% to CA$0.66. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$1.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.58 in 2024. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Athabasca Oil

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of CA$6.56, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Athabasca Oil's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Athabasca Oil.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Athabasca Oil could be a good candidate for more research.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Athabasca Oil going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..