Is Radico Khaitan Limited (NSE:RADICO) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At The Intrinsic Value

Thomas Auclair

Updated Mon, Jun 25, 2018, 7:14 PM

I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Radico Khaitan Limited (NSE:RADICO) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not June 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Radico Khaitan by following the link below. View out our latest analysis for Radico Khaitan

The model

I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. Where possible I use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past five years, but capped at a reasonable level. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.

5-year cash flow estimate

2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹2.43k	₹2.46k	₹2.05k	₹2.53k	₹2.70k
Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Extrapolated @ (6.84%)
Present Value Discounted @ 13.55%	₹2.14k	₹1.91k	₹1.40k	₹1.52k	₹1.43k

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= ₹8.41b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 7.7%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 13.5%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF₂₀₂₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹2.70b × (1 + 7.7%) ÷ (13.5% – 7.7%) = ₹50.03b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)⁵ = ₹50.03b ÷ ( 1 + 13.5%)⁵ = ₹26.51b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹34.92b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of ₹262.18. Compared to the current share price of ₹392.3, the stock is quite expensive and not available at a discount at this time.

NSEI:RADICO Intrinsic Value June 26th 18

Important assumptions

I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Radico Khaitan as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 13.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For RADICO, I’ve put together three pertinent aspects you should further research:

Financial Health: Does RADICO have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does RADICO’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of RADICO? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every IN stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.

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