Qatar Eyes Wider Mediator Role After Gaza Truce Breakthrough
Fiona MacDonald
6 min read
(Bloomberg) -- Qatar’s success in helping to broker the long-awaited Gaza ceasefire has enhanced its reputation as an international mediator, with officials now considering which other conflicts they could help resolve.
The gas-rich Gulf nation hosted the late-stage indirect talks between Israel and Hamas that culminated in the truce that started Sunday, with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani working round the clock to get the deal over the line. The agreement capped more than a year of often frustrating negotiations, with officials from both former US President Joe Biden’s administration and successor Donald Trump’s team involved in the final push.
Israeli and Hamas officials never came face to face in a highly choreographed set of final meetings in the Qatari capital, underlining the complex nature of the high-stakes engagement. And the task is far from complete: Qatar is working on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement for when the initial truce ends in less than six weeks.
Doha’s lines into Hamas will again be of paramount importance in what will be another highly sensitive negotiation, with a number of questions still to be answered — including who will eventually run the war-ravaged territory and oversee rebuilding.
The Israel-Hamas breakthrough was the product of more than a decade of Qatari efforts to position itself as the Middle East’s indispensable go-between, weathering criticism from its neighbors and beyond for the US-coordinated housing of leaders of Hamas — designated a terrorist organization by the US and others — while maintaining channels to Israel, even though the two countries don’t formally recognize each other.
Qatar was isolated by Arab states including Saudi Arabia for almost four years through 2021, though relations are now cordial. Ongoing and careful handling of relations with even adversarial parties will be critical to maintaining its key role.
Qatar was “pivotal” throughout the negotiation process, “and not just because of its relationship with Hamas,” said Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Its very close relationship with the US, engagement with senior Israeli officials, and its much improved relations with Gulf neighbors Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are what made Doha the integral regional actor.”
In a soft-power play backed by Qatar’s $510 billion sovereign wealth fund, the country is involved as a mediator in more than 10 other ongoing cases of various natures, according to one Qatari official, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. The nation is on the look out for other places it can be of service, said a diplomat briefed on the Gaza talks, also speaking on condition of anonymity.
For example, Qatar sees the potential to work on Afghanistan, where it wants to help improve the humanitarian situation as well as curb Islamic State’s attempts to gain ground there, the diplomat said.
Doha hosted talks between the US and the Taliban in 2020, working with the first Trump administration, and went on to accept evacuees fleeing Afghanistan after the Taliban regained power the following year. Qatar this week facilitated a swap deal that saw two American citizens detained in Afghanistan released, the foreign ministry said.
Qatar also has constructive ties with Iran — with which it shares the world’s biggest gas field. A goal is to leverage that to help ease tensions between Tehran and Washington, the diplomat said. Those reached a zenith during Trump’s first term in office, with the new US president overseeing a strategy dubbed ‘maximum pressure’, walking away from a deal on the Islamic Republic’s atomic activities and imposing heavy economic sanctions.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected last year on a reformist agenda, has indicated a wish to pursue re-engagement with the West over both nuclear development and sanctions. That creates potential for talks to take place, the diplomat said.
Qatar has in the past helped free American prisoners from Iran, and aided negotiations for the release of Ukrainian children taken by Russia following its invasion in 2022. There’s a high probability Ukraine-Russian mediation will start in earnest this year, and countries experienced in the field have the potential to take part as mediators.
In the Arab world, Qatar and Kuwait were the only Gulf states that refused to normalize relations with former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, who was overthrown late year. Doha is now looking to help rebuild war-ravaged Syria, coordinating with Turkey and Saudi Arabia to ensure it doesn’t become a failed state and there’s a smooth transition to a formal government.
Qatar is providing technical support to revive infrastructure in Syria, including its electricity sector, the diplomat said, and will likely invest in reconstruction projects.
Qatar’s success as a mediator “stems from its neutral positioning, lack of historical baggage with many parties, and willingness to engage with groups like Hamas, the Taliban and Western powers simultaneously,” said Abdulaziz Al-Anjari, founder and head of Kuwait-based Reconnaissance Research.
“The more they do it, the more unique they become, and the more difficult others could be seen as reliable mediators,” Al-Anjari said.
‘Blood on Hands’
Qatar had never put such a high-level negotiator as Al Thani at the heart of mediation talks before Gaza, the Qatari official said. The Prime Minister even told the US that for every day there was no deal, he felt he had people’s blood on his hands.
The turning point came late last year, after a frustrated Doha announced it would step back from mediating. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, at the newly-elected president’s behest, flew to the Qatari capital in November to ask why.
Momentum then started to build, according to the diplomat briefed on the talks. Witkoff proceeded to work with Biden’s main Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, to push the Israelis while the Qataris pressured Hamas, ultimately paving the way for a long-delayed agreement announced on Jan. 15. How the US approached the task as a team, before the new administration had come into office, was invaluable in helping close the gaps, according to the Qatari official.
While Qatar’s effectiveness as a mediator has earned it credibility even among adversarial parties, it will need to continue navigating shrewdly, according to Reconnaissance Research CEO Al-Anjari.
“Its ability to maintain its role will depend on how it manages its relationships with rival powers, adapts to shifting geopolitical dynamics, and avoids overreach in a highly volatile region,” he said.
--With assistance from Thomas Hall.
(Updates with ceasefire challenges in fourth paragraph.)
