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Q4 2024 XP Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Andre Parize; Investor Relations Officer; XP Inc

Thiago Maffra; Chief Executive Officer; XP Inc

Victor Mansur; Chief Financial Officer; XP Inc

Thiago Batista; Analyst; UBS

Eduardo Rosman; Analyst; BTG Pactual

Gustavo Schroden; Analyst; Citi

Tito Labarta; Analyst; Goldman Sachs

Antonio Ruette; Analyst; Bank of America

Neha Argawal; Analyst; HSBC

Daniel Vaz; Analyst; Safra

Renato Meloni; Analyst; Autonomous Research

Presentation

Andre Parize

Good evening, everyone. I'm Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer, XP Inc. It's a pleasure to be here with you today.
On behalf of the company, I would like to thank you all for the interest and welcome you to our 2024 earnings call. This year was a record setting of results, and today, it will be presented by our CEO, Thiago Maffra, and our CFO, Victor Mansur, who will both be available for the Q&A session right after the presentation.
If you want to ask a question, you can raise your hand on the Zoom too, and we will attend you on a first come first serve basis. We also have the option of simultaneous translation to Portuguese. There is a button below if you want to turn it on translation.
And before we begin our presentation, please refer to our legal disclaimers on page 2, on which we clarify forward-looking statements and additional information on forward-looking statements can also be found on the SEC filings section of the IR website.
So now I'll turn it over to Thiago Maffra, Good evening, Maffra.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you, Andre. Good evening to all. I appreciate everyone joining us for our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. It's a pleasure to be here tonight. Let's explore and discuss our quarterly results as well as our strategy in place to accomplish our goals.
2024 was a positive year for us. Our results were aligned with our plan, bringing confidence that our ecosystem is complete and able to navigate through different weathers. This year, we also dedicated to increase our ability to deliver higher quality service to our clients, better segmentation, innovative products, sales team extension, and all of it with strict cost control. Our business is supported by our more intelligent and sophisticated tech platform, creating opportunities to grow the secondary trading, and as a result, we delivered higher profitability to our shareholders.
As part of our culture, we celebrate our people commitment, highlighting partners with more than 10 years working at XP. And last month, I completed 10 years in XP like many other partners. So it was special to see all the transformation we had during the last decade, and imagine how many new growth opportunities we still have for the next one.
Now, I will share with you the main highlights we accomplished during the year; starting with client assets that we achieved BRL1.22 trillion, posting a 9% growth year over year. We also reached 18,200 advisers, representing 5% growth year over year. And client base achieved 4.7 million with 3% growth year over year.
In 2024, gross revenues posted BRL18 billion, with a solid 15% growth year over year. We also delivered sound EBT growth of year over year, reaching BRL5 billion. I'm happy to announce that we achieved the highest quarterly adjusted net income since our IPO, posting BRL1.2 billion in fourth quarter '24 and a total of BRL4.5 billion for the full year, which represented 17% expansion year over year.
On the balance sheet and profitability, we achieved 28.7% ROTE in 2024, with 376 bps expansion versus 2023, and our ROE market 23% -- 163 bps expansion. This ratio year-end was 17.7%, a comfortable level when considering the payment of BRL2 billion in dividends. Our secured loan book growth and effects of higher interest rate curve in the end of the year. We will bring more details on this topic during the presentation.
Regarding the adjusted diluted EPS, we posted 16% growth during the year. And looking ahead, EPS should grow faster than net income when we take into consideration the share buyback program we opened last year. Our set of results confirm that we are in the right direction to deliver our 2026 guidance. We will see more details on the next slides.
Let's see how our business evolved since we presented our guidance in December 2023. We will go deeper in each pillar on the next slides.
Since our total revenues reached BRL18 billion during the year, representing 15% growth, to reach the top of the guidance is necessary to post 22% CAGR. And to reach the bottom is necessary to post 12% CAGR. When we take EBT margin in consideration, we posted 256 bps (sic - see slide 6, "283 bps") expansion, reaching 29% in the year. It corroborates that our plan is on track to achieve our target range of 30% to 34% in 2026.
Now, on the right hand of the slide, there is a comparison from final year, 2024, with [third] quarter '23, which was the reference that we set our targets for 2026. Analyzing the three pillars that comprehend total gross revenues, we see that core investments and new verticals are within the growth range and corporate and SMB is above. As a conclusion, gross revenues present CAGR of 17%.
The same idea is related to EBT margin with a sound expansion during the period of 283 bps at 29%, what reinforce our confidence to achieve our goals.
Moving to the next slide. Now, in Retail Investments. During 2024, the number one question to XP was net new money. And we have been addressing the question, demonstrating our capacity in delivering around BRL20 billion per quarter in Retail. This quarter, we posted the BRL20 billion in Retail, with 67% growth year over year despite the challenging macro environment.
Comparing total net new money when corporate is included, we posted BRL26 billion, representing 37% growth year over year. And when we compare the full year, we presented BRL103 billion in net new money, with a 45% growth.
Considering only Retail, excluding Modal's acquisition, it was a 33% growth year over year with BRL81 billion. Our target remains the same for 2025, net new money around BRL20 billion per quarter in Retail. We understand that our true differentials set us apart from peers and will contribute to our continuous growth for the next years.
Moving to the next slide, we will go deeper in our main levers starting with our complete product platform offering sophisticated instruments to our clients according to their objectives. I'm happy to share our current fixed income capacity.
XP is a fixed income powerhouse in Brazil, being the largest market maker for all fixed income instruments. It became a relevant growth engine in our ecosystem. It was built not so long ago.
Actually, we doubled AUC size in the last three years. It is a big question if fixed income will perform as last year. But as you can see in the slide, traded volume to client assets ratio is steady during the years. AUC kept growing at a fast pace. And as a result, fixed income, daily average traded volume, sky rocket reaching 40,000 trades in 2024.
To achieve these sorts of level we have to consider the powerful combination of the largest well-trained sales team in the country, diversified and innovative product offering and risk management accuracy.
Moving to the next slide, we see our new distribution channel model. Since 2021, we built a multichannel distribution channel in two main categories. The first one, B2B which comprehends IFAs, Wealth Managers and RIAs. And the second one, B2C, that contemplates Internal Advisers, Self-direct Model, and Private Bank. Those categories have demonstrated to be complementary, addressing client needs and support our commercial trust posting continuously AUC growth.
Important to highlight that the new distribution channels we launched during the last years already represents 60% of total net new money.
As you can see on the right hand of the slide, our proprietary tools provide more intelligence to support advisers with daily chips. We do this by providing data so advisers can manage clients' portfolios according to their objectives and simulate new strategies and performance. On the back of these new technologies and servicing model, we have our IFA channel ready to accelerate even more in 2025, becoming adhering to this new concept to manage clients' portfolios, improving loyalty and satisfaction.
The adherence to these tools and practices, it's very important. And one of the many examples that makes this clear is when we see that advisers who became adherent to our new commercial behavior, increase their daily activities by 11x. This shows a powerful combination of tools and a new mindset in relationship with our clients.
On the next slide, we develop a segmentation with accurate value proposition. As we can see in the slide, we have from digital to private, other part of our better understanding of this new segmentation is based in five different dimensions.
Number one, focusing what clients are looking for in the relationship with XP, from transaction banking for digital clients to integrated solutions for private clients. Number two, advisory model with three different approaches, objective based, financial planning and wealth planning. Number three, investment options with proper pricing sophistication and access depending on the client segment. Number four, banking experience also with differentiated pricing and products such as different credit cards, matching our clients' expectations. And last, client support with increasingly higher personalization and benefits, for example, faster SLAs and participation in events and experiences.
Additionally, we are also preparing new initiatives to launch during the year with this rationale. One of them, it's a new credit card experience that we expect to result in higher cross-sell and share of wallet. We already saw that the new segmentation started to translate into better results. One from many examples is our Private Bank, which is performing much better in terms of inflows and client satisfaction than in the previous years. We are excited with the last month's performance and expecting a solid 2025.
Now moving to the next slide, we have financial planning. As we saw before, financial planning is an important pillar in our strategy. We are the only institution serving clients with a complete financing program to clients with BRL300,000 and up, not only client-based satisfaction increases but also their loyalty.
As for results, we can see on the right hand of the slide that clients with financial planning program increased 2x insurance conversion, increased retirement plans conversion from 30% to 41%, and last but not least, increase our client net new money by 43%. And and we are just in the beginning, more to be done in the next years.
Moving on to the next slide, we will see more details in retail initiatives. Now let's move to our cross-sell initiatives. You can see that credit card grew 11% year over year, marking BRL13.1 billion in TPV during fourth quarter 2014. When compare the full year, credit card grew 17%. When we look to our total penetration, we still see a good opportunity to increase our credit card client base, since we have only 29% penetration out of the eligible clients and the larger banks are running around 50%. We are excited about our new launches during the year, and we expect credit card revenue to grow around 20%.
Life insurance written premium, presented 37% growth year over year in the fourth quarter and 44% growth for the full year of 2024. This is other growth avenue for the next years since our penetration is about 2%, and other players present close to 17% penetration in this product. When we compare life insurance revenues, it grew 27% in the year, which means that we are starting to reap the benefits from our own insurance company.
This is because it takes three years on average to see the positive impact in this business. The first two years are more concentrated, commissions and provisions. And for 2025, we expect an even higher revenue growth pace than the one we saw in 2024, which was 41%.
On Retirement Plans, our client assets keep growing double digit posting 10% year over year in fourth quarter and marked BRL81 billion. XP has 5% market share, and the market leader, 27%. As I said, in recent quarters, we are launching initiatives as cash back sales force expansion to keep gaining relevance in this offering during the next years. As we keep seeing more inflows, we believe we could grow retirement plans revenue by a double-digit rate in 2025.
Retail Credit NII posted 79% growth year over year, marking BRL81 million in revenues this quarter. Since our lending in this concept is backed with client investments at collateral, our ECL to loans is lower than 1%, and which represents one of the lowest levels in the Brazilian industry. We expect this revenue to grow around mid-teens for the year.
On the concept of other new products, compounded by FX, global investments, digital account and consortium. They presented 103% growth year over year with revenues marking BRL213 million this quarter. It demonstrates how many opportunities we still have to capture true cross-sell in our retail client base. Not long ago, it was close to zero. And looking ahead, this concept to cross the BRL1 billion mark per year.
And moving to Corporate and SMB. As we have been talking about our complete ecosystem, wholesale is an important part of our growth engine. 2024 was a record-setting year for this segment.
Now let's see how it performed on different divisions. Starting with DCM, it was a strong year, posting 31% growth in volumes compared to fourth quarter '23, marking BRL9.3 billion, coupled with market share gains, achieving 13%. As a result, we were a top ranked in DCM, agribusiness credit notes and real estate funds. It is possible to gain even further market share, since XP is the largest investment platform in Brazil with dominance in secondary trading.
In corporate credit, secular trading XP represents more than 50% of the local market. Regarding XP institutional broker dealer, it's some other highlights. Giving attribution, power, and quality in execution, we are gaining market share continuously during the last years. In the end of 2024, XP posted 16% market share, which is getting closer and closer to the market leader.
Other relevant growth avenue is corporate security. Few years ago, it was a completely different story. Now our capacity origin warehouse and distribute corporate credit is in a new level. XP is a relevant player and more important than only size is the benefit of our unique loop to recycle our expanded loan book to our retail and institutional clients. Our turnover on it is 2x or 3x per quarter.
This quarter, our corporate securities book increased BRL9 billion, mainly high-graded names, marking BRL32 billion. It means that we distributed a large portion of the this book last quarter and we also originated a larger one. Our competitiveness is supported by relevance as the largest corporate credit broker in the country.
On derivates, we keep our offering while increasing penetration in OTC derivatives. And this was a quarter quarter that we kept our 4th ranking position compared to 10th two years ago. As we presented last quarter, XP is the leader in interest rate swaps, a true differential of our ecosystem.
On FX, XP also sustained 15th ranking position from for 41st, four years ago when we started. When we look to Issuer Service and corporate, total revenues posted 45% growth. And lending institutional concept is included, there three business grew 16% year over year. We are confident that our strengths, we will excel the challenging scenario, marking another solid growth in 2025.
Moving to the next slide, we will see XP growth potential. We acknowledge that our business evolved in a complete ecosystem. And more and more, we have received questions regarding our growth potential. Therefore, I would like to share with you our rationale that supports our plan for the year.
It's important to bear in mind that XP business model benefits from a natural growth from total AUC. Today, as we speak, roughly, 65% of total assets are allocated in fixed income directly or through funds, which corroborates to expect growth close to accelerate for these client assets. Additionally, we incorporated net new money, then a combination of both translates to a potential double-digit growth in AUC, and consequently, should support revenues growth.
Regarding new verticals, as I presented earlier, we are confident that we are at the very beginning of the potential cross-sell penetration. During the year, we grew 32%, and we expect to keep growing at this fast pace in the next years.
Another concept which supports our growth is related to float from our clients. By design, the performance will be at Selic Rate pace, pointing again to a double-digit growth.
Next pillar is the Issuer Service focuses on DCM. It is true that in 2024, Brazilian industry had the all-time high DCM volumes, and it's too soon to refer that's not going to be also a solid year for DCM in 2025. Just in case if the total DCM volumes for 2025 materialized in lower levels than last year, our plan is due to expand our market share and benefit from a new level of Brazilian industry, which is way higher than years ago.
Our distribution power is the most important differential to participate in many issuance mandates. Coupled with that, is our lower cost of capital, which Victor will present more details ahead.
Finally, corporate revenues go hand in hand with Issuer Services, providing derivatives and credit to our clients. XP is becoming more relevant in wholesale business since our recycling results in higher distribution capacity to our retail and institutional channels.
So even considering institutional revenues with lower pace as part of this concept, both should post double-digit growth. Just as a reminder, we already expected a softer primary offerings volume in DCM for the first quarter '25 due to the seasonality, but this should be offset by a higher activity in the corporate bond secondary market, while compounding all these factors that I just mentioned, the end game should be to revenues growing more than 10% during 2025.
Now I will hand it over to Victor, so he can discuss this quarter financials. Thank you.