J. Justin Hutchens
Thank you, Debbie. I'll give updates on our strategy to deliver profitable organic growth in our senior housing portfolio and execute on value-creating external growth. We had a very exciting and successful year on both fronts.
Starting with organic growth, 2024 marked the third year in a row of double-digit same-store SHOP NOI growth. I'm very happy with the execution of our Ventas OI-driven SHOP platform initiatives and collaborative relationships with our high-performing operators. Our occupancy-led results were delivered by contributions across geographies and asset types.
Total SHOP same-store cash NOI growth was 16%, which is at the high end of the guidance range. Full-year same-store SHOP occupancy grew by 300 basis points versus our initial guidance of $250 million. In the fourth quarter, our US same-store NOI grew 20% and occupancy grew 370 basis points.
We are outperforming our markets in occupancy growth. Our US shop communities in the NIC Top 99 markets grew 350 basis points, beating the NIC benchmark by 140 basis points. These results were broad-based across assisted living and independent living.
Moving forward, we are highly optimistic about our senior housing business across multiple dimensions. The supply and demand dynamics in our sector are exceptionally favorable. Over the next five years, the US will experience an unprecedented surge in the senior population as the baby boomer generation begins turning 80. This 80-plus age group is projected to grow by 28% during this period, driving significant demand for senior housing.
Meanwhile, new construction in our markets remains constrained, with inventory growth at the lowest number on record and new construction starts at an all-time low. These combined factors create an extraordinary net absorption opportunity in the upcoming years, unlike anything we have seen before.
We just finished the first lap of a long race, as supply-demand characteristics are projected to remain compelling over the next several years. Ventas is in a strong position to continue to drive growth in our SHOP portfolio. We have favorable competitive positioning driven by Ventas OI with proprietary data analytics and experiential insights, which underscore portfolio actions and optimizes performance.
Our expanding network of 29 SHOP operators has consistently delivered tremendous growth while capturing market share in their respective regions. We are committed to working closely together with them to capture the immense opportunities ahead. We offer a differentiated approach through collaboration and the aligned goal of delivering exceptional care services and performance.
We continue to execute on our community refresh program, improving the living and working environment of our communities, and therefore, improving competitive positioning. We have completed 228 projects at year-end, including over 150 refreshed employee break rooms and over 4,500 modernized resident units.
We are on pace to complete another 50 refresh projects by the key selling season this year, which should further enhance our ability to drive NOI. Speaking of driving NOI, as previously announced, we are excited to expand our SHOP portfolio by converting 45 large-scale senior housing communities comprising of about 5,700 units from the triple-net structure to SHOP.
This is a great opportunity to reposition low-occupied communities that are located in markets with strong projected net absorption. We have plans to transition these communities to five proven high-performing operators with a strong track record of both transitioning and improving operating performance.
We plan to execute the Ventas OI playbook to drive occupancy, pricing, environmental improvements, and ultimately double the NOI of the 77% occupied portfolio. Assuming this conversion occurs by the end of the year, we project our SHOP footprint to increase by 8% in number of units and our SHOP portfolio to increase to account for over 50% of our enterprise NOI.
Looking forward to 2025, we are excited to continue our multiyear growth trajectory as we embark on our fourth consecutive year of double-digit NOI growth in our same-store SHOP portfolio. Same-store SHOP is expected to grow NOI 11% to 16%. The midpoint of our range is driven by revenue growth of about 8%, average occupancy growth of about 270 basis points, and continued strength in pricing driving RevPOR of around 4.5%. Furthermore, we expect operating expense growth of 5%.
Per usual, the results will be highly dependent on a successful key selling season, and we are assuming a relatively stable inflationary outlook. Once again, we are expecting the US to be the growth engine with continued accelerating occupancy performance with over 300 basis points of growth.
January occupancy is off to a strong start. Summarizing organic SHOP growth, we are coming off a strong year of occupancy-driven results. And we are excited about the opportunities ahead as we continue to unleash the power of our advantage SHOP platform.
Moving on to part two of our strategy. We continue to execute on value-creating external growth focused on senior housing in the fourth quarter and throughout 2024. For the full year, we closed on $1.9 billion of senior housing investments, including $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter alone. These investments fit squarely within our investment criteria, including 78% expected year one NOI yield, low to mid-teens unlevered IRRs, and a significant discount to replacement cost.
This investment activity meaningfully expands our SHOP portfolio with the addition of 52 new communities and markets with strong projected net absorption, and communities that are high-performing with upside including average in-place occupancy of 90%.
Even with this accelerated pace of external growth, we are maintaining our underwriting discipline. In 2024, we reviewed approximately $18 billion of senior housing opportunities, pursuing approximately $5 billion, and ultimately closing on nearly $2 billion. We have a rigorous, data-driven process that ensures we are pursuing the best deal for Ventas and investing within our right market, right asset, right operator framework.
Our experienced team remains focused on executing our external growth plans, and we intend to expand the team. We expect our pipeline will continue to present a large set of compelling investment opportunities, with potential deals coming from a range of owners and a variety of reasons for selling, including debt and fund maturities.
Our investment activity also includes a range of seller profiles with transactions coming from a balanced mix of owner operators, private equity, developers, and other institutional capital. Looking forward to 2025, we expect to keep our external growth momentum, including line of sight on $1 billion of senior housing investments, which are already in advanced stages. And we expect to be weighted in the first half of the year.
Ventas is a senior housing partner of choice with sellers, brokers, and the entire investment community. This remains true even as there may be more competition for assets, as others are seeing the favorable risk reward in senior housing. Our industry experience, platform capabilities to manage scale, data science, and transaction track record should help to propel our growth prospects moving forward.
Our investment team capabilities are second to none, and we are continuously building on our strengths. With that in mind, I'm very excited to announce Alex Russo joining our team as Senior Managing Director of Investments.
During his 18-year career at Lazard, Alex has demonstrated exceptional financial and investment acumen. And I expect he will be an instrumental addition to the team as we continue to execute on our value-creating external growth focused on senior housing.
Now I'll hand the call to Bob.
Robert Probst
Thank you, Justin. I'll share some highlights of our 2024 performance and close with our 2025 outlook. I'll start by saying we are pleased with all we accomplished in 2024. We finished 2024 strong with attributable net income per share of $0.19. 2024 normalized FFO per share of $0.81 in the fourth quarter and $3.19 for the full year represent a 7% year-over-year increase in both periods.
The result exceeded the high end of our full-year normalized FFO guidance range, led by SHOP same-store growth, and execution on our accretive senior housing investment pipeline. Our total company same-store cash NOI grew nearly 8% year over year in 2024, reflecting broad-based property NOI growth across our portfolio, led by 16% growth in SHOP.
Our outpatient medical and research business delivered continued compounding growth of 3% in 2024, in line with our expectations. For the full year, research grew 4.6% and outpatient medical increased 2.6%. As Justin described, we closed on approximately $1.9 billion of senior housing investments funded all equity.
We raised $2.2 billion of total equity in 2024 and year-to-date 2025, including approximately $1.2 billion raised since the third quarter at an average share price of $62.90. We currently have $250 million of unsettled forward equity available to fund senior housing investments in 2025.
Consistent with our strategy, SHOP growth in all equity-funded senior housing investments have further strengthened our balance sheet. At 6.0 times, our Q4 net debt-to-EBITDA is a 90-basis-point improvement year over year, and has now entered our long-term targeted leverage range of 5 to 6 times. We expect continued leverage improvement in 2025 driven by senior housing growth.
We ended 2024 with robust liquidity of nearly $4 billion, which included proceeds from our third-quarter 2024 senior note issuance, which we subsequently used to pay down $1 billion of maturing debt in the first quarter of 2025. Let's conclude with our full-year 2025 outlook.
For 2025, we expect net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.48 per share at the midpoint. We expect normalized FFO to range from $3.35 to $3.46 per share or $3.41 per share at the midpoint, which represents 7% year-over-year growth, in line with the FFO growth we posted in 2024.
The $0.22 normalized FFO per share increase is driven by NOI growth in the SHOP business and accretive senior housing investment activity, partially offset by higher net interest expense, FX, and dilution from a higher share price. Our 2025 total company same-store cash NOI guidance approximates 6.75% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, led by SHOP.
Our guidance includes senior housing investments of approximately $1 billion in 2025, with clear line of sight and weighted to close in the first half of the year. We intend to principally equity fund these investments and have already raised $250 million via equity forwards. For the year, we also expect to raise $200 million through capital recycling efforts.
Specific to increase net interest expense, our midpoint of guidance assumes an increase of $0.08 compared to 2024 from refinancing maturing debt at a high rate and lower cash balances year over year. A more fulsome discussion of our 2025 guidance assumptions can be found in our Q4 supplemental and earnings presentation posted to our website.
To close, we are really pleased with our 2024 performance, are executing on our growth strategy and delivering advantaged growth in normalized FFO per share. The entire Ventas team is determined to continue this momentum in 2025.
With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.
Omotayo Okusanya
Yes, good morning. So my question, actually, is about the medical-office-building side of things. Just looking at the quarter, some occupancy declines, it appears. But in your 2025 guidance, you have pretty strong same-store NOI growth.
So I'm just curious what the kind of trajectory is in that business, whether you're expecting occupancy gains, refilling of some of that space that may have vacated in the year. Or how do we kind of think about the fourth quarter results relative to the '25 guidance?
B. J. Grant
Yeah. Thanks, Tayo, for the question. Really, it started in '24. We actually did more leasing. We had 15% more leasing than the prior year.
And as you cycle through that (technical difficulty) construction. And they start coming online (technical difficulty) start seeing meaningful results in your NOI. If you look at '24, we've -- or '25, we've already done 34% of our leasing plan, which is a terrific start for mid-February. So our plans for '25 assume occupancy gains and the corresponding NOI growth.
Omotayo Okusanya
Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And if I may ask one about the senior housing. Again, everyone is very aware of what's happening in regards to demographic tailwinds and clearly showing up in your results.
Curious at this point, what VOI is telling you guys in regards to, strategically, you should be doing anything different to kind of further kind of capitalize on those demographic tailwind, especially now you're kind of at the point where, again, occupancy is getting higher and things of that sort and demand -- supply-demand fundamentals clearly in your favor?
J. Justin Hutchens
Tayo, it's Justin. Yeah. So the whole basis for Ventas OI is to really help us to focus on markets, assets, and operators. And the data from a market standpoint is extremely helpful because it really underscores all the decisions we make. It's the most important aspect of our investment decisions, disposition decisions, decisions to invest in particular assets.
And the key point, really, is it's hyper locally focused. And that really gives us the comfort and confidence that if we make that investment, we take certain actions that's going to deliver growth opportunity. And it's going to have sustained opportunity to perform well over time. And that's really the power of the platform. It's looking ahead, near, mid, long term, and ensuring that we're well-positioned.
Omotayo Okusanya
All right. Congrats on the quarter and the outlook.
B. J. Grant
Thanks, Tayo.
Operator
Michael Griffin, Citi.
Nick Joseph
Thanks. It's Nick Joseph here with Michael. Just wanted to touch base on the acquisition strategy, targeting more stabilized assets. So I was hoping you could talk about kind of the return profile of those where you can kind of push rate versus the occupancy upside, and what sort of kind of going in yield and stabilized IRRs you could get there?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah, sure. So we find this to be a very unique opportunity right now, where you can invest in high-quality assets that have the combination of delivering yield and growth. I haven't really seen this before. There are opportunities to invest in a variety of different senior housing. We had mentioned we had $18 billion that we started to look at.
We only pursue $5 billion of that. And really, it's because we're being -- we're extremely focused on the criteria that we set forth, which has helped us to ensure that we're getting the combination we're looking for, yield growth and then ultimately, a high-quality, high-performing asset.
So the asset that we're pursuing is, first and foremost, it's high performing. These are market leaders. They're 90% occupied, but that doesn't mean they don't have occupancy upside. We have -- they're in markets that have strong absorption. And there's another 10% occupancy opportunity plus pricing opportunity, which should only improve as scarcity value increases. And that will come as occupancy continues to grow.
We're buying larger communities that have a mix of IO and AL and memory care services. We're in markets that have strong net absorption and a strong affordability. And the unlevered IRRs are low to mid-teens, and that's factoring in, obviously, growth. And we tend to use a constant cap rate. So you can have an assurance that it's growth that's really driving that IRR.
So we like this opportunity. We're continuing with the same investment criteria in '25 that we used last year. We mentioned the $1 billion that we're pursuing, and that's lining up well with that criteria.
Nick Joseph
Thanks. It's very helpful. And then just the impact of that -- those acquisitions, both identified and also potential on 2025. Could it meaningfully move the needle, or is it more kind of future growth that we would see on a per share basis?
Robert Probst
Hey, Nick, it's Bob. Yeah, good news, these acquisitions are accretive from the get-go, all equity funded. Last year, we did nearly $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter. So a lot of the activity last year was fourth quarter weighted. And it was 78% yields is accretive.
So that's certainly part of the 7% year-over-year growth in normalized FFO per share. The line of sight to the new $1 billion will have lesser contribution, obviously, just given timing in the year. But again, we'll continue to strive to do what we did last year.
Nick Joseph
Thank you very much.
Robert Probst
Thank you.
Operator
John Kilichowski, Wells Fargo.
John Kilichowski
Thank you. Maybe just to circle back to that last question and talking about the $1 billion acquisition guide. I'm curious what deal flow looks like at this point right now versus maybe this time last year and the fourth quarter, and then maybe how the competitive environment is changing and the room for you all to drive acquisitions in the second half of '25?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah. Well, first of all, the pipeline is bigger than it was this time last year. And remember, we started last year's guide at $350 million; we ended up $2 billion. This year, we have confidence around $1 billion already. So that in itself kind of demonstrates the pipeline. But we're seeing more activity. We're seeing more competition.
There's certain new players at the table and some that have been around before coming back to the sector again. But it's important that we emphasize why we have a competitive advantage in this asset class, and there's a few reasons.
One is the platform itself. The Ventas OI, the data analytics, the experience, and capital to well-positioned assets, and then making sure that we are picking the right operators. And one of the reasons I'm so proud of the amount of operators we have is because we are picking operators that have track records in their particular asset classes in their markets.
And we have the sale to manage a platform of multiple operators. It's not about how many. It's about delivering within local markets, and we can manage that. So that's a differentiator amongst most of the market that pursues senior housing.
This is a platform that's taken many years to grow. It's even turbocharged, I think, in a recent period as we've re-entered the competitive opportunity within senior housing. And we think we'll do well, and we'll look forward to continuing to execute.
John Kilichowski
Got it. And then maybe if we could just jump to development here. How close are we in the cycle to having development really start to pencil? Like, what would RevPOR growth need to be in your models to get there and then typical delivery times, just so we can sketch out and maybe like a rate neutral environment when we think supply would likely inflect?
J. Justin Hutchens
Right. So it doesn't seem like we're anywhere close, and it varies by market. There's a wide range of rents that we think are needed. It could be -- it's anywhere from 20% to 50% higher depending on the market you're looking at.
We were not seeing development starts. There's not really a big debt financing source for development. And it's on multiple fronts and that the barriers are on multiple fronts, anywhere from land cost, material costs, labor costs, and then just the price that's needed really to justify the spend. And it's a ways off based on what we're seeing now.
John Kilichowski
Thank you.
Operator
Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.
Juan Sanabria
Hi, good morning. Just hoping you could talk a little bit about the R&I business and your views on risk around NIH funding changes as a result of policies by the new administration and the impact or lack thereof of Ventas' assets?
Debra Cafaro
Good morning, Juan. It's Debbie. So I'll just briefly touch on that. As you know, because SHOP is growing at such an accelerated pace within our enterprise, our consolidated research portfolio is about 8% of our total NOI with 18 distinct universities. And the US leads the world in biomedical research, in part, because of funding from the NIH.
And so we generally feel positive about the long-term prospects of biomedical research in the US. And there is, as you note, some noise around the NIH grants at the moment. But at the present time, any changes have been halted, and therefore, the grant recipients should continue to receive their full funding.
And these institutions generally have a very, very, very large research budget, of which NIH funding is a minority portion, and of that, the only proposed changes are to a small portion of that. So that, hopefully, frames it up for you.
Juan Sanabria
Very helpful. Thank you. And then just as my follow-up, maybe if you could provide a little color on the $200 million that -- for capital recycling via dispositions, the strategy there. You talked about maybe selectively selling skilled nursing before. Is that kind of still in the bucket, and what yields we should expect on that $200 million?
Debra Cafaro
Yes, and you've been writing about this. So you know it well, which is we have had a strategy of disposing of the skilled nursing facilities we acquired a year or two ago. And we've done quite a bit of that and have about $150 million pending and would expect that to be the big part of the $200 million to which Bob referred. And we'll recycle that capital into senior housing investments.
Juan Sanabria
Thanks again.
Debra Cafaro
Thank you.
Operator
Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.
Vikram Malhotra
Morning, thanks for the question. Congrats on a strong quarter. Maybe just first on the SHOP side, can you clarify, in your guide, are you baking in sort of a typical seasonal pattern in '25 kind of dipping in 1Q and then from 3Q to 4Q? Or are you baking in something different?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah, sure. So we do consider kind of a historically normal seasonal pattern in our guide. And we have said we're off to a strong start in January. We'll also be the first to admit that we had very strong counter-seasonal results last year. So the new normal could change as demand is picking up.
But it doesn't really change one important fact, and that is that we have a heavy reliance on the key selling season. And obviously, I think we're well-positioned to do well. But that's always the most important season because that's where a lot of the net movement activity happens.
Vikram Malhotra
Got it. So just to clarify, you're baking in typical like occupancy dips and pickups, et cetera, as we go through the year just as you've seen historically?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yes, we (multiple speakers) yeah, historical seasonality in our underwriting.
Vikram Malhotra
And then in the same store or the overall, I guess, SHOP portfolio, can you, A, just give us a bit of a sense of how pricing part evolved around kind of different occupancy bands and perhaps what percent of the portfolio is less than 80% occupied today?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah, sure. So I'll take the second one first. It's about 25%, below 80%. And I'd like to remind people that the US is 84% occupied. So we have a lot of growth opportunity in terms of occupancy within the SHOP portfolio in the US.
Pricing, there's a direct relationship between higher occupancies and higher price. So we'll see the best in being 99% occupied or higher. We have by far and away, could be up to 900 basis points better move-in rents. RevPOR is up 30%, 40% in that range. The next one down, [90, 99], you're seeing exceptional pricing as well.
And it's really that kind of below 90% occupancy category, where we're not pushing pricing as much. So if you think about where we're positioned, 84%; Debbie mentioned 2024 as occupancy led. '25, we're expecting solid occupancy growth again with good pricing support. And as we get into higher occupancies, we fully expect that they will have the opportunity to push pricing more over time.
Vikram Malhotra
Got it. And then just last clarification on the fund business you have. Can you just talk about -- you've talked about the overall deal volume and the pipeline for on balance sheet. But what about the fund and maybe MOBs or life sciences, senior housing? Like, how are you thinking about growing or tapping the fund?
Debra Cafaro
Thanks. Our fund business has been very successful since its inauguration. And we are continuing to grow that. It's been a good performer compared to its benchmarks.
And we would expect to continue to use that vehicle for the benefit of the institutional investors in it as well as Ventas because we are the general partner and an investor in it. So it's a nice additional tool that we have and have used to benefit the overall enterprise and the investors in the fund.
Vikram Malhotra
Great. Thanks, and congrats again.
B. J. Grant
Thank you very much.
Operator
Richard Anderson, Wedbush.
Richard Anderson
Hey, thanks. Good morning. So, Justin, I know the focus from an acquisition standpoint is high-performing, 90%-ish-type occupancy. But you're kind of jumping out of your shoes talking about the Brookdale opportunity that's 77% occupied and doubling the NOI and all that.
I'm just curious why the focus is on sort of lower-risk, if I could call it that, opportunities as opposed to more value-add activity, given we are in such a sweet spot in early stages of this fundamental cycle in senior housing?
Debra Cafaro
Yeah. I mean, good comment. I mean, really, we should be looking at aggregate portfolio composition, just like an investor would look at their aggregate portfolio to look at risk-reward growth, et cetera. And so I'll turn it over to Justin. Clearly, when you can buy things that have great risk-adjusted return as we've been doing, we like that. But let's talk about overall portfolio construction.
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah. And I mean -- and that's exactly right because we have a lot of upside in our existing SHOP portfolio from an occupancy standpoint. And we've taken a lot of actions over the years to make sure we're well-positioned within that portfolio to be ready for really what we're seeing today, which is this growing demand environment.
And like I said, we're only 84% occupied in the US. If you looked at the non-same-store group, half of that's acquisitions; the other half is in the 70% occupancy. And so where do we get those communities? Well, we moved a lot of them from triple-net to SHOP through conversion.
So even without Brookdale, we've already converted around 100 communities, some triple-net SHOP. And that's really been the source for this kind of, if you want to call it, a value-add opportunity, where we can really deploy the Ventas OI playbook to the fullest. And then a nice complement to that are these high-performing acquisitions that we're making that also have really good returns and growth.
Debra Cafaro
Yeah. I mean, the investments meet the unlevered IRR expectations. Low to mid-teens are expected to deliver that. And so that's pretty good for an asset that is well performing already.
Richard Anderson
Okay. And then my second question is -- I think someone asked what percentage of your portfolio is below 80%. You said that's 25%. What percentage is currently running above whatever the pre-disruption occupancy was, the high 80s?
I mean, where do we find proof that you think that the landing point for occupancy in SHOP is something meaningfully greater than the starting point prior to the pandemic and so on? I wonder if you could sort of give some color around that. Thanks.
J. Justin Hutchens
I mean -- yeah. I mean, you can see -- well, the sector is basically there. So you have the industry that's really achieved that in the US. They're back to that pre-pandemic level. We have -- way over half of our portfolio has already done that.
As we've said, we've been kind of moving communities in that we think have -- we're repositioning opportunity to deliver outsized growth for us. So that's part of the makeup of the portfolio. And I think the results we've had over the last few years is demonstrating the growth opportunity. And you're seeing our occupancy grow. You've seen our margin expand and really, just as we said it would.
So we're right in the -- but I'll say this. Debbie said it and I said it, different analogies. If I said it, we just finished like the first lap of a long race. Because we're just now, like really now, getting to the period where demographics become really strong. It happens to be during a period when supply is completely muted.
So it's been pretty good the last few years. We're looking forward to some more strength moving forward and achieving our forecast.
Debra Cafaro
Yeah. Rich, I used the baseball analogy for you.
Richard Anderson
Yeah, you're welcome. I appreciate that. Thank you very much.
Debra Cafaro
Yeah.
Richard Anderson
Appreciate it.
Debra Cafaro
Thanks.
Operator
Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.
Michael Carroll
Yeah, thanks. Justin, can you comment on the reason why Ventas might lose seniors housing transaction? I know on this -- in your prepared remarks, you said that Ventas bidded on $5 billion of deals and closed about $2 billion. So what are the reasons for those misses in 2024? Is it due to price, or is there other reasons that Ventas decides not to move forward with?
J. Justin Hutchens
So there's a couple -- I'm going to start with why we win deals. And when we -- when you look at the $2 billion and the $1 billion that's coming, the obvious -- first thing is we're the highest bidder. The next is that we had a unique opportunity. And a lot of these deals are owner-operator driven, and they'll like to partner with Ventas as their next capital partner over the long term. And so that's helped us to be well-positioned with certain deals that we've won.
We've had kind of quasi-off-market opportunities like that that have driven a lot of the opportunity for us. We have other opportunities where we've transacted with the counterparty before. So they know who they're dealing with on the other side of the table. They know that we deliver on what we say we're going to do. And that really leads to confidence in transacting with us, which helps us to win opportunities.
So generally, if we're not winning a deal, there's obviously a disconnect in terms of what we think the value of the asset is versus the player that bought it. So you get outbid in certain cases. Certain times, we may even expect that will happen because it might be a certain type of asset. But we have insights into the market that others might not have.
So we're liking our success rate. We're usually not shocked if there's a deal that falls out on us. And we usually have a lot of confidence around the deals that are the right fit.
Michael Carroll
Okay. That's helpful. And who are the peers that typically beat you? Obviously, you don't have to name names. But are they like public REITs or private players? I mean, who are the main competition that you, typically, can't complete a deal because they outbid you?
Debra Cafaro
Well, Michael, I mean -- this is Debbie. One of the things that Justin said, which I think is very important, is we may choose not to bid more because we don't value an asset the way maybe someone else does. Part of the secret sauce, of course, is bringing these assets on and adding the OI platform, and knowing what can be delivered under our offices.
And so there are plenty in there that we just choose not to bid more because we don't like the risk-reward proposition. And I would say that's the most common characteristic. There are very few deals, very few, where if we want it, we don't get it. That's a much, much smaller number.
Michael Carroll
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator
Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.
Ronald Kamdem
Hey, I just had two quick ones. Just wondering if you could touch on expenses a little bit. Just give us a sense of what the labor market is looking at, and if that's something that is a concern as we think about going forward.
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah. In the SHOP business, the expense forecast really assumes kind of current inflationary projections. We have 5% all in because that includes wage increases, plus it includes the volume impact of the occupancy. Obviously, the flow-through is very strong, which is great.
Importantly, the hiring opportunity has been very good for operators. We're on a long trend now of having the ability to fill roles. Retention is strong as well. So I'm going to knock on wood and say the labor market for us has been about as good as we've seen in some time.
Ronald Kamdem
Great. That's helpful. And then just on the conversions, I think you talked about you've done 100, and there's this Brookdale. Just as you look at the portfolio, how much more opportunity do you think there is on the next, call it, three to five years and more conversions? I know they're tricky, but trying to figure out what the (inaudible) looks like?
J. Justin Hutchens
That's a good question. And I have to say that the lease portfolio that remains is very strong performing, good coverage, good assets, tenants that are happy with their relative position. There may be some that we can jointly agree to repurpose into a different structure. But I think we've picked most of the opportunities, and now we're really focused on execution.
Ronald Kamdem
Great. That's it for me. Thanks so much.
Debra Cafaro
Thank you.
Operator
John Pawlowski, Green Street.
John Pawlowski
Hey, thanks for the time. My first question is on capital expenditures. The $285 million in FAD CapEx, it's up about 15% year over year. Is that -- this level -- should we expect this level to continue for the next few years?
And is the Brookdale -- reposition in Brookdale included in this figure? Or is that a separate kind of redevelopment CapEx bucket above the FAD CapEx?
Robert Probst
Yeah, I'll take that one. It's Bob. So we were about $250 million in 2024 on FAD CapEx. The guide at $285 million, call it $30 million higher, is really two-thirds more units from all the activity we just talked about, whether it's investments or conversions from triple-net; and one-third just inflation.
It kind of describes the difference. So I would expect as we continue to buy more assets and make conversions, including the Brookdale, that will continue at a higher level. But it's really principally volume-based, more units.
John Pawlowski
Okay. And then, Justin, a follow-up on one data point you threw out that I missed. It was -- you referenced RevPOR being 30% to 40% higher in your higher occupancy tranche properties versus low occupancy. That RevPOR growth rates are 30% to 40% higher. Did I catch that right, or could you expand on that?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yes, good question. It's a RevPOR growth rate. Yeah. So there's -- it demonstrates really what we think is a very exciting opportunity around price in the future as we get our occupancy up over time.
John Pawlowski
Okay, thanks for the time.
Debra Cafaro
Thank you.
Operator
Wes Golladay, Baird.
Wes Golladay
Hey, good morning, everyone. You mentioned competition may be picking up a little bit for senior housing. Are you starting to see any signs of cap rate compression?
J. Justin Hutchens
That's a good question. So we're squarely in the range that we've been targeting all through last year. And so far this year, that 7% to 8% year-one yield and their unlevered IRRs are basically the same. And so we're still finding opportunities that meet that criteria. And it's been so far so good, focusing on those targeted returns.
Debra Cafaro
And as you know, 10-year rates are up over 100 basis points since even September. So that bears on it as well.
Wes Golladay
Yes (multiple speakers)
Debra Cafaro
And that's another area of advantage for us is the access to and pricing of capital.
Wes Golladay
Okay, fair point. One last one for me would be the [sanctuary] portfolio. A few years ago, you talked about having some opportunity with the MOB portfolio. Are you starting to see that kick in this year, or is that more of a 2026 thing?
Peter Bulgarelli
Yeah. Hey, thanks for the question, Wes. This is Pete. Yeah, the EOP portfolio, we're really happy with. We've got 79 assets, and we continue to leverage the Lillibridge playbook and the Lillibridge team. What was really solid in '24 was we had a material impact on tenant satisfaction.
We went from lowest quartile of tenant satisfaction to the third quartile, which is a terrific step-up. We also had great retention last year of 82% TTM. Occupancy was up 210 basis points, and also NOI was up substantially at about 4%. So we expect that to carry through.
Wes Golladay
Okay, thanks for the time.
Operator
Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Austin Wurschmidt
Yeah, just first one on the Brookdale transition. Are you assuming any headwind or benefit to FFO from transitioning those assets to SHOP from triple-net in the back half of this year? And just curious what that assumes in the underlying NOI that you identified in the release. I think it was mid-$50 million range. Thanks.
Debra Cafaro
Yeah. Thanks, Austin.
Robert Probst
Yeah, I'll take that. It's Bob. So the assumption in the plan in the guidance is that for the vast majority of the year, the assets remain under the triple-net lease. That's the way the deal was structured. We can begin to transition them towards the end of the year.
But effectively, think of it as a triple-net segment NOI asset for the vast majority of the year. We'll really start to hopefully see some impact is on CapEx as we start to begin the transitions. So it's really more of a '26 story, to be honest, is the way I would think about it.
Austin Wurschmidt
Understood. I was thinking September, those started the transition. Just high level, Justin, you started last year, 250 basis points of occupancy gains assumed in SHOP revenue guidance, clearly exceeded that. And this year, you're starting at 270 bps of upside.
So I guess, with that comment earlier about historic seasonality assumed in guidance, what gives you that increased confidence this year? And do you still think that if the key selling season delivers and you don't see that seasonal -- historically seasonal pattern occur, could there be similar upside?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah. Your question in itself almost kind of demonstrates the consideration because there's a lot of what-ifs in there, if we outperform the winter and we outperform the summer. And so we're mindful of how much business is obtained during that key selling season. And that really drives a lot of that growth that we're projecting.
So certainly, if all that -- we check all those boxes, you could see more. But there's a lot of the year to play out still. And we'll go focus on executing and see where we can get.
Operator
Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.
Mike Mueller
Quick ones on the four new developments that are underway. I guess, first, for the Atrium project, that's 100% leased. That's being completed this year. Why is the stabilization in 2027? And then just kind of an update for the other three that are still leasing up?
Debra Cafaro
Right. So we kind of think of three projects, basically. And of those three projects, there are two buildings that are very exciting that are in the Charlotte market that are 80% pre-leased. And so that's really driving the stabilization date because we're consolidating them basically. And so one is 100% pre-leased, and the other one, 60% pre-leased.
So those are going well. And we expect to get benefits from that, and they have an incredible really desirable tenants, including Atrium Health, obviously; that's the name. And so that's the update on that. And the other two are kind of coming online and have significant pre-leasing as well. And we're going to continue to try to achieve target leasing.
Mike Mueller
Got it. And maybe if I could squeak one other one in there. You talked a little bit about looking at larger properties with AL, IL, and memory care in there. And I guess, what are the high-level thoughts on entry fee communities today?
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah. So there's -- I mean, if you just step back, you have an 80-plus population that is surging. So everything -- every service offering that's facing that should have opportunity. That includes interest fee communities. We don't invest in those currently.
Clearly, they have a place in the market, and they've done well. So I would expect that there's opportunities there. We're rental focused. And obviously, we've had a lot of growth, and we expect really good opportunities moving ahead.
Mike Mueller
Got it. Thank you.
Debra Cafaro
Thank you.
Operator
Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.
Nick Yulico
Thanks. I just wanted to see if you could give us a bit of a refresher here about how to think about RevPOR growth and senior housing. So you talked about the 7% January rent increases. And then for the year, I think the guidance is 4.5% on RevPOR.
So what's sort of -- the difference there, I imagine it's something on new lease pricing. And how should we think about, I guess, the ability for that dynamic to change?
Debra Cafaro
Yeah. Justin is going to answer that. I mean, generally, it's about -- there's a kind of a two-thirds relationship between the RevPOR and the January increases. But I'll let Justin unpack that a little bit for you.
J. Justin Hutchens
Yeah. Great. It's a great question. It's a big topic because it's not simple. So first of all, in the US, headline number is actually 8% in the US in terms of rent increases. That's similar to what we did -- exactly what we did last year. So we feel good about the US rent increases. The rest of the year, we'll have anniversary rent increases. And usually, that's kind of been in a range of around 6% to 8% or so.
And here's how it works. And so you have a rent increase. The rent increase in January is really only impacting about half the population. There's a percentage of the population that were new move-ins in the fourth quarter and aren't getting an increase. And then you have anniversary increases the rest of the year, so they'll blend in over time.
In assisted living and memory care, you have a level of care revenue. And that level of care revenue is like 20% assisted living, 30% in memory care, grows over time during the length of stay of a resident. When they're replaced with the new resident, that new resident is coming at a lower acuity and therefore, paying a lower level of care charge.
And so you have that's kind of -- that's a drag on your potential RevPOR. Another thing that is an area that of opportunity really for the sector is to see move-in rents actually equal in-house rent increases. And we expect to see the improvement in that metric over time.
But generally, it lags. And so that's how you're getting to that two-thirds result that Debbie is describing. And -- but we think that having said that, there's a lot of opportunity given the affordability of the market, the demand at the doorstep, and the fact that occupancies are going up and scarcity value is being created.
Nick Yulico
Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks. And then just second question is on the guidance. I just want to be clear. I mean, it sounds like there's -- we should think about the acquisitions being funded with equity.
So there is a higher share count in guidance. To be clear, should we be modeling $1 billion of equity raise in guidance? And then, Bob, I don't know if you have a sort of a year-end net debt-to-EBITDA sort of outlook?
Robert Probst
Yeah. So on the latter point, we definitely expect to continue to improve net debt-to-EBITDA. We're now at the high end of the range, and we're going to continue to strive to drive that even further down. So that's -- and that's driven by senior housing, both organically and inorganically.
So yes, check. In terms of the funding, all equity funding, senior housing investments has been a winning formula. And that is our assumption effectively in the model and as I mentioned, part of $250 million raised under forward. So we're in good shape in that regard, and the number on the share count reflects that.
Nick Yulico
All right, thank you.
Debra Cafaro
All right. Well, I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your interest and support of Ventas. And we're going to continue to try to have an excellent year in 2025.
Operator
Thank you so much, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's call. Thank you, all, for joining. You may now disconnect, and have a nice day, everyone. Thank you.
