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Q4 2024 Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Tim Argo; Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy & Analysis Officer; Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

Clay Holder; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

Jeff Spector; Analyst; Bank of America

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterward, the company will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, February 6, 2025.
I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MMA, for opening comments.

Thank you, Ian. And good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team participating on the call this morning are Eric Bolton, Brad Hill, Tim Argo, Clay Holder and Rob DelPriore.
Before we begin with prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results.
During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions.
I will now turn the call over to Eric.

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning.
As reported in our earnings release, MAA finished calendar year 2024 in line with our expectations and is in a great position for the recovery cycle for apartment leasing that should be increasingly evident over the course of this year. While we are still working through the impact of record high levels of new supply delivered over the past year, we are encouraged with some of the early recovery trends that we are capturing with lease over lease pricing performance.
While it would take some time for the recovery momentum to build, it seems clear that the tide is starting to turn. And we look forward to a productive spring and summer leasing season when the improving trends will have a more obvious compounding impact on overall portfolio results late this year and into 2026.
Before turning the call over to Brad, I did want to take just a few minutes this morning and tell you why I'm excited and confident about the prospects for MAA's earnings outlook over the emerging recovery cycle. It starts with my confidence in our leadership team.
As we disclosed in December, effective April 1, we plan to execute on the next step in our CEO succession planning program. And Brad, will assume the role of President and CEO. I'll remain active in supporting Brad and our Board as executive Chairman.
Brad and his executive leadership team have an average tenure of 16 years with our company. I know this leadership team well, and I have a lot of confidence in them. Brad and his team have a deep understanding of our strategy and our approach to executing on that strategy, which has delivered sector leading long-term results for shareholder capital.
Beyond my confidence in our leadership team, while our markets have more recently been challenged with a 50-year high record of new supply deliveries, there is increasing evidence that the worst of the pressure from this new supply is poised to materially moderate, especially as we get into the summer leasing season. As we have discussed, we historically have seen the actual delivery and leasing pressure from competing new development peak at roughly 2 years after the start of construction.
Based on our analysis, the volume of new construction started in calendar year 2023 or two years ago dropped 39% from the peak of starts during the extraordinarily low interest rate environment in calendar year 2022. And then start sequentially drop another 50% in calendar year 2024. So, this is expected to result in a significant decline in actual unit deliveries starting this year and into 2026 and 2027.
Given where we are currently with interest rates and construction costs, we continue to see challenges in the market's ability to meaningfully restart and increase in new projects. Taken together, we believe these conditions will manifest in a sharp drop in new supply delivery starting this year and continuing for several years.
In addition to the supply dynamic and the impact of leasing conditions, we believe that our portfolio is uniquely well positioned to capture the benefits from job growth, population growth, and high single family housing costs. This continues to drive a resulting growth in the demand for apartment housing across our markets that will outpace national trends over the long haul.
This strong positioning for the demand side of the equation, coupled with the material drop in new supply this year and beyond, we believe will have a significant impact on market rent growth across the portfolio portfolio for the next few years.
Furthermore, I'm excited about the various new tech initiatives we have underway aimed at driving enhanced services for our residents and more efficiencies within our operating platform. Several new initiatives that we have more recently implemented, coupled with new projects that we'll launch over the coming year, we expect will further increase operating margin and accelerate earnings over the next few years.
And finally, our external growth pipeline is stronger and larger than at any time in our company history. We have several new projects slated to deliver over the emerging recovery cycle with other new sites already lined up, and importantly, the balance sheet is strong and well positioned to continue to support this growth.
So in summary, the experience and proven capabilities of our leadership team, our orientation towards the strongest growth in housing demand markets in the country, the strength of our operating platform with growing efficiencies, and the more robust external growth pipeline we have in place that is supported by a sector leading a strong balance sheet all combined to drive much enthusiasm and confidence in my outlook for MAA over the next few years.
As this will serve as my last earnings call prior to the transition of the CEO role, I'd like to extend my appreciation and thanks to our shareholders and to the analyst community for your trust in our company and our team. It's truly been an honor to serve the public capital markets over the past 30 years here at MAA.
Our culture at MAA is grounded in a strong belief that our stewardship of MAA assets and shareholder capital is at all times focused on creating value for the benefit of our residents, our shareholders, our associates, and the communities where we operate. I'm proud of our associates at MAA. I appreciate their hard work and support, and I look forward to MAA delivering even higher value in the future for those that we serve.
Turn over to Brad now.