Yahoo Finance

Elizabeth Boland

Thanks, Stephen, and hello to everybody who is able to join the call. To recap the fourth quarter, overall revenue increased 10% to $674 million, adjusted operating income of $79 million or 11.8% of revenue increased 25% over Q4 of '23, while adjusted EBITDA of $111 million or 16.4% of revenue increased 12% over the prior year. We ended the year with 1,019 centers, having added 7 and closed 16 locations in the fourth quarter.
To break this down a bit further, full-service revenue was $485 million and was up 8% in Q4 on pricing increases, low single-digit enrollment growth and approximately 50 basis points of tailwind from FX. As Stephen mentioned, Q4 occupancy levels across our portfolio of centers that have been opened for more than one year, increased over the prior year and remained relatively consistent from Q3 levels in the low 60s percent utilization.
In the center cohorts we have discussed on prior calls, we continue to increase the number of centers in the top cohorts over the prior year period. In Q4, our top-performing cohort, defined as above 70% occupancy, improved from 36% of these centers in Q4 of '23 to 39% in Q4 of '24. In our bottom cohort of centers, those under 40% occupied now represent 16% of centers, improving from 18% in the prior year period.
Adjusted operating income of $17 million in the Full-Service segment increased $4.5 million over the prior year. Higher enrollment and improved operating leverage, particularly in our US and UK operations helped to drive the growth in earnings.
Turning to backup care. Revenue grew more than $20 million or 15% in the fourth quarter to $157 million. Strong overall use in Q4 drove the better-than-expected revenue growth as well as the adjusted operating income of $53 million in Q4 of '24 or 33% of revenue.
For the year, revenue grew 16% to $610 million, topping our expectations of 14% to 15% growth. Lastly, our revenue in the Educational Advising segment ticked up to $32.5 million in Q4 and delivered operating margin of 29%, modestly higher than the prior year, reflecting improved operating leverage.
Net interest expense in the quarter of $11.5 million was down over the prior year, largely due to incremental interest income on invested cash.
The structural effective of tax rate on adjusted net income was 27.5% in the quarter, roughly in line with the full year effective rate. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. For the full year 2024, we generated $337 million in cash from operations compared to $256 million in 2023.
We made fixed asset investments totaling $95 million in '24 as compared to $91 million in 2023.
And lastly, with the continued cash build and specifically free cash flow generated in Q4, we repurchased roughly $85 million of stock in the quarter, our first repurchase activity since the summer of 2022.
We ended the year with $110 million of cash, a leverage ratio of roughly 2x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and approximately 58.5 million weighted average shares outstanding.
Now moving on to our 2025 outlook. In terms of the top line, we currently expect 2025 revenue to be in the range of $2.85 billion to $2.9 billion. This growth of 6% to 8% includes a 115-basis point year-over-year headwind from the strengthening of the US dollar against our foreign currencies. As a result, we expect constant currency revenue to grow approximately 7% to 9%.
Looking at a segment level. In full service, we expect reported revenue to grow in the range of 4.5% to 6.5%, with constant currency revenue growth of 6% to 8% on enrollment gains and tuition increases, offset by a modest headwind from net center closings.
In Backup Care, we expect reported revenue to increase 11% to 13%, driven by the continued expansion of use. And in net advisory, we expect to grow in the low to mid-single digits. As Stephen previewed, in terms of earnings, we expect 2025 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $3.95 to $4.15 a share.
Turning now to -- specifically to the first quarter of 2025. Our outlook is for total top line growth in the range of 6% to 8% on a reported basis to $660 million to $670 million, reflecting roughly 100 basis points headwind from FX over the prior year. We expect full service to grow reported revenue again, in the range of 4.5% to 6.5% or 6% to 8% in constant currency. Back up to grow 11% to 13% and at advisory in the mid-single digit. In terms of earnings, we expect Q1 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.63 to $0.68 a share.
So with that, Sherry, we are ready to go to Q&A.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

Manav Patnaik

I was hoping you could just break out that 6% to 8% (inaudible). I know you said pricing enrollment and then enclosure. But I was hoping you could just quantify a little bit what the pricing of those (inaudible) basically?

Elizabeth Boland

So Manav, if I heard your question right, this is for the 2025.

Manav Patnaik

Yes, for the 6% to 8% full center guide specifically?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. Sorry, I just was -- you were breaking up a little bit. So yes. Overall, we would be looking at price increase in the 4% to 5% range. Enrollment in the 2.5% to 3.5% range.
And then the net closure effect, if you will, the openings offset by the effect of centers we have closed in the 0.5% or so offsetting those two growth items. And then the foreign exchange is 1.5 points to 150 basis points headwind.

Manav Patnaik

Okay. Got it. Understood. Helpful. And then just like you have before, could you just help us with the margin perhaps for the full year in the three segments?
I know you've done that before for that in the quarter?

Elizabeth Boland

Sure. So this year, we're in the low-ish to mid-single digits for the full service segment, so around 4%. We would be looking to improve that to mid-single digits, 150 basis points or so. That comes from some of the leverage from the enrollment and the pricing to cost, et cetera. So that's full service in that range.
Our backup business for the year, we would expect it to be similar to what we've delivered in 2024. So in that 20%, 25% to 30% range on the higher end of that, similar to what we did this year. There's a little bit of different phasing for that. It would be mid- to high teens for the first quarter specifically. So a little bit of difference versus the full year, but you can see the trend of that this year, next year as well.
And then in the ed advising business, overall, again, some phasing throughout the year, but in the the mid- to high teens operating income for the year.

Operator

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

Keen Fai Tong

You mentioned that the occupancy is currently in the low 60s, consistent with 3Q. Can you provide your latest views on how occupancy rates will trend over the course of 2025?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. I mean our expectation is for -- overall for enrollment growth in the, call it, 2.5% to 3.5% range, maybe a little bit -- a little bit more, we have harder comps in the first half than the second half, modestly, but fairly steady growth through the year, but maybe weighted slightly to the back end.

Keen Fai Tong

And what about the percentage? Would you expect the low 60s to reach mid-60s, to mid- to high 60s.

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. Sorry, George, it would be in the mid-60s, yes. That's where we (inaudible).

Keen Fai Tong

And I know there's seasonality over the course of the year. How would you expect -- I'm assuming the step-up happens in the first half of the year and then step back down in the second half?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes, exactly. It would be -- because the enrollment, we would expect the growth to be fairly consistent, it would be higher in the first half like it was this year and then tapering back in the second half.

Operator

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman

Elizabeth, I thought I heard you say that the number of center closings in would only drag revenues by 0.5 point. Maybe you could mention how many centers that would be. It just sounds low to me because when I think about the pre-COVID years, the many years of center pruning, which was normal, would drag about 1% or 2% a year. So if it's only 0.5% this year, it just seems like you're not pruning even like kind of a normal amount of pre-COVID centers for a year.

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. So I think that the factor there, Andrew, I mean, it's a -- we're trying to quantify the point about it, but I think it's net, of course, of the openings. So that was intended to be a net unit revenue factor. So closings will be higher than that. So call it, if closings are 2% and openings are or 2.25 and openings are 1% and 1.25% then that shapes down to less than 1% net.
We do have -- I think I'll point out one thing, though, about that, which is that the newer -- we are opening centers. We opened 26 centers here in 2024. We would expect a similar number of openings based on what is in the pipeline and in development right now. Those centers open and they are ramping up and delivering sort of a more typical historic ramp profile.
The centers we are closing have been under enrolled there at a revenue level that is already somewhat tapered down. So the effect of it is a headwind on revenue, but perhaps not completely representative of what you might have seen in the past.

Andrew Steinerman

Right. And what was in the fourth quarter, the same question, what was the revenue drag from center closing in the fourth quarter just reported?

Michael Flanagan

Yes, from a gross basis, it was about a 250 basis point headwind from center closing. We've got some new centers. So the net was closer to.

Elizabeth Boland

100 basis points in Q4.

Operator

Jeff Mueler, Baird.

Jeffrey Meuler

Stephen, you mentioned just the disappointment with the underperforming centers and intensifying efforts. Can you go into more detail on what the intensifying efforts part means? Like what are you doing differently going into '25 that you've been doing throughout the COVID recovery just from an operational side to drive that up in full service?

Stephen Kramer

Yes. So I think a lot of it -- Jeff, thank you for the question. I think a lot of it is really focused on continuing to refine the prospect family experience. So again, I think what we have continued to do and are, again, redoubling our efforts on are things like how a prospective family is handled as an inquiry. And so really making sure that we're intensifying the personal touch that those families are receiving through the process.
I think we continue to improve our tour experience and making sure that we are providing greater visibility into the great experience that family will have once they enroll in the center.
And then I would say that we are also improving our ability to leverage the backup care use within our own centers and using more systems to convert backup users into full-time enrollment and really providing them that first experience through a backup use and then ultimately, having them enroll on a permanent basis.
So I would say a lot of it is down to how we're managing that funnel and making sure that the family has as many opportunities to see the great work that happens within our centers and expose them to that so that it can differentiate with other options in the community.

Jeffrey Meuler

Got it. And then just on Backup Care, could you just talk about client budget discussions or annual budget adjustments going into '25 as we think about that as a growth driver versus driving up allowance of the existing use banks and new clients?

Stephen Kramer

Yes, sure. So first of all, just to take a step back, obviously, we're really pleased with how backup performed throughout 2024 growing 16%, which, again, gives us the confidence to guide to 11% to 13% for 2025. I would say specifically related to the renewal season, we had really positive conversations in this third and fourth quarter as it relates to the conversations and discussions we had with our existing client base. . Obviously, they invested more than they had in the prior year.
We got really good signals from our clients through both renewal as well as anecdotal evidence that they are interested in continuing to grow those investments. Again, their focus as is ours, is on continuing to grow the number of unique users, so in terms of the lever that we see as the important one and our employer clients are aligned with, we are looking to broaden the base of users within our client base and only in a really small incremental way grow the number of uses per user.
And so we're not seeing many changes as it relates to the used bank that employers are offering. But instead, they are continuing to allow for a broader set of unique users that ultimately will come with additional use.
So we felt really good about Q3 and (inaudible) in terms of the renewal season, feel good about our ability to continue to drive marketing and other efforts as well as supply against the increased demand.

Operator

Josh Chan, UBS.

Joshua Chan

Stephen, I think you mentioned the return to office potentially being a little bit of a tailwind. How important of a factor is that do you -- would you attribute that factor to explain much of the difference between your current occupancy and your pre-covid occupancy? Just kind of kind of the ballpark, how impactful office might be to you in your mind?

Stephen Kramer

Yes. Look, I think that as we have grown the enrollment across the base of centers, Clearly, there have been a number of factors that have gone into us continuing to be able to increase and improve enrollment. I would say with some of the most suborn of enrollment challenges. So think about the ones that are in the third cohort. There are a selection of those.
And I think I alluded to them in the prepared remarks, which is there is a selection of those in that bottom cohort that are in urban business district. So think about D.C., think about Midtown to downtown Manhattan, think about downtown Seattle, and in those isolated markets, certainly return to office appears to be something that at this point, could have an unlock.
We're starting to see increased inquiries in some of those markets that historically have been particularly stubborn. I wouldn't say it's the key driver in terms of our enrollment progress to date nor going forward, but there are a selection of the centers that certainly will and hopefully will get assisted by return to office policies.

Joshua Chan

Great. In the UK, I think you mentioned a path to breakeven. Does that mean that you expect to fully get to breakeven for the full year? And if so, what are some of the initiatives beyond the ones that kind of led to last year's improvement that you're undertaking this year to drive that kind of result in the UK.

Stephen Kramer

Sure. So I think we had shared in previous calls that we had an expectation of a loss within the full-service segment in the UK of [$15 million] , and it's going to be actually closer to [$10 million] this year, 2024. And certainly, in 2025, our expectation is we're going to be able to get that to breakeven. I think what allowed us to do better in 2024 and start to see the kinds of improvements that we saw was down to enrollment growth. So our team in the UK did a really nice job of growing our enrollment.
They certainly work really diligently on getting better and more efficient staffing. And as a result, we're able to really reduce our reliance on agency third-party staffing accommodations. We will continue to roll all of those efforts forward into this year 2025 and then the only other sort of additional piece of the puzzle for 2025 is that we have an expectation given that the government has announced that for 0 to 3 year olds, there will be increased numbers of hours. So they're going to go from 15 hours of free entitlement to 30 hours of free entitlement. And so our expectation is that, that will create some additional velocity in Q3 and Q4.

Operator

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

Toni Kaplan

I wanted to start out with enrollment trends in third quarter and fourth quarter, you had the low single-digit enrollment and you've guided to about 2.5% to 3.5% for the coming year. And this was all laid out last quarter. So I don't feel like there was a lot new here, but just what do you think has driven this lower enrollment than you had seen previously? -- just thinking about it in the post-COVID period, I guess, enrollment was a lot higher because you were still sort of seeing people come back to center care. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the the enrollment trends?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. Thanks, Toni. I think the parsing it a little bit is helpful in terms of where we are actually seeing the opportunity for enrollment growth. So our best-performing centers, we are over 80% occupied. Those centers are -- they may for a period of time, gain some enrollment.
But ultimately, when you've got a center that's that full, there will always be cycling out of older children into elementary school, et cetera. So maintaining those centers in the same enrollment level means not much enrollment growth from that cohort at all.
The real growth opportunity is in those centers that are sub 70% enrolled, and that's where we have seen good improvement in the middle, sort of the middle cohort that we've characterized as 40% to 70% occupied, mid-single digits. We are in the stage of enrollment in those centers where it's always a little bit difficult to piece the age of children and the availability of spaces together in all cases.
(inaudible) Stephen mentioned it and we talked a little bit earlier, not as in reflecting on where the improvement has been slower, slower than we would have expected, even though the most underperforming centers have have a high percentage of enrollment gain. They're still stubbornly below 40%. And that is, in some cases, it's down to where they are located in a very urban work-centric environment where there has been less opportunity to enroll families who are coming to that area. They've made other choices closer to their home. But it is also -- I think that the environment during the pandemic recovery for families who can afford child care, they've explored other options, and we're needing to grow back an awareness and an interest level in this kind of solution in some of these environments.
So we're serving a population that is higher income has other choices. We are serving generally in urban, near urban environments. And we continue to see, as we've talked about, we continue to see good enrollment at our client centers tend to be more enrolled. Centers that have been open longer tend to be more enrolled. And so those that are under enrolled may have characteristics of being what I just described or even just newer to open or reopen.

Toni Kaplan

Perfect. Then in Backup Care, you mentioned the strength in home care. I was wondering if the financials of that are sort of higher revenue with lower margin or how to think about the profile there? And is that large enough within backup care to move the needle or is it still just a very nascent offering that you're providing?

Elizabeth Boland

So the in-home care is -- it's a really important part of the overall solution. Many families appreciate that alternative. But the majority of our care is actually -- is center-based. It's own centers, primarily at the top group and then our network partners is the next group. So in home care, it's not nascent or incidental.
It's an important portion of our service delivery. And it is -- it's more expensive than providing care within our own centers or a center-based solution, but it's an important part of the overall solution in terms of providing optionality and having to meet the needs of the parent population.
So we see it as continuing to grow that in-home capacity. But along with that, having enough of our own center-based capacity and/or our network partners is certainly we're economics are most optimal, but because the service delivery in the round is critical. We want to have as many care types as we can to serve the needs that the end consumer has.

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Silber

I wanted to shift gears and talk a little bit about labor supply and more specifically, wage inflation. I know we started to see a tick up generally I'm just wondering what you are seeing. And if it does go higher, do you have an opportunity to raise prices maybe midyear to offset any increase going forward.

Stephen Kramer

Yes. So I think that we're comfortable with the estimates that we have at this point. Again, we've made some significant wage investments over the last 4 years. So we feel good about where our employees are being compensated. Again, in addition to wage itself, we obviously invest in benefits and other ways in which we enrich the package for those in our employee.
I would say that in terms of seeing wage inflation that is greater than what we expect, first, we don't expect that, but in the event where that was the case, we always have the opportunity, especially for new families to consider that, although, again, at this point, that's not our expectation.

Jeffrey Silber

Okay. That's really helpful. And you had mentioned the share repurchase in the quarter. I know it's been the first time in a little while. I'm just curious if you can just talk about your thought process behind that.
What drove you to do that this quarter as opposed to using it for other purposes?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. I mean we have been in the last couple of years, both between our investments in our business in Australia and sort of making sure that the overall performance has stabilized. We've been building cash over the course of this year, certainly have visibility to continued cash flow generation in the coming years and thought -- we are as opportunistic as we can be. The plant has been out there, and we've just been, I think, being judicious about capital deployment, but we've got very well-priced debt, and it's a good option for us to be active in that plan at this time.

Operator

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy

So I know you have talked about potential store closings. And I'm curious, where do you think the utilization cohort that's below 40% utilized would be next year around this time?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. So we are -- as mentioned on the call, we are about 16% or so of that group of centers that are in that bottom cohort. Pre-COVID, we always have had centers in a sort of suboptimal performance group. And so getting to somewhere between 16% and probably 5% or so of the portfolio is where we would target at the end of '25 based on -- based on what we would expect enrollment to grow this year. And we do have some continued pruning expected.
We may not be all the way to that 5% threshold but certainly expect to see at least a few points of improvement in the overall cohort group. I think it's a matter of improving those by enrollment gains in the centers that have been most affected. But I think overall, the look there would be that we also will have some centers that are opening and ramping. So I don't want you to think that, that number would ever be getting to 0.

Faiza Alwy

Okay. Okay. Understood. And then just on the full service margin expansion, I know you talked about 150 basis points just coming from enrollment, et cetera. So -- but I'm curious -- I know we talked about the margins within each of these utilization cohorts.
And so could you give us an update on sort of how you think about those margins in the above 70% utilization cohort versus the 40% to 70% at this point?

Elizabeth Boland

Yes. I mean, broadly speaking, the best -- the most enrolled centers, the group that's above 70% is essentially back to pre-COVID operating margin level. So we were in the full service business, we were at 10% or so EBIT margins, and those centers are certainly back to that level even better. They were the better performers. And so doing well.
The middle cohort enrolled in that 40% to 70% are less than that. They're positive, but call it more like our overall average in the mid-single digits range. It's the underperforming group that's 16% we were just talking about that is they are actually losing money.
And so as a group, they lose some level. So we're not quoting -- it's not really that relevant to quote it as a percentage of revenue. They're under enrolled. The revenue isn't that representative of where they would be if they were performing, but they are -- they're losing on a unit basis, they're losing money. So that's where the headwind and the improvement to margins will come from getting those to breakeven and then positive.
And then ultimately, the bigger opportunity really is almost in that middle group of centers where, call it, 45% or so of the centers are in that middle group and have the opportunity to move from mid-single digits back closer to that 10% level.

Stephen Kramer

Okay. Thank you all very much for joining us this evening and wishing you all a great time.

Elizabeth Boland

Thanks, everyone. Take care.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.