In This Article:
Participants
Brent Arriaga; Chief Accounting Officer and Corporate Controller; Helix Energy Solutions
Ken Neikirk; Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary; Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc
Scotty Sparks; Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc
Presentation
Operator
Thank you for standing by. My name is Andrea and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q 3 2024 Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc Incorporated Earnings conference call. All lines have been placed in you to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one in your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again, I would now like to turn the call over to Brent Arriaga, Chief Accounting Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Brent Arriaga
Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us today on our third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call participating on this call for Helix. Today are Owen Kratz. Our CEO Scotty sparks our COO Eric staffeldt, our CFO Ken Neikirk, our general counsel, Daniel Stewart, our Vice President commercial and myself. Hopefully, you've had an opportunity to review our press release and the related slide presentation released last night. If you have a copy of these materials, both can be accessed through the investor relations page on our website at www dot helix ESG dotcom. The press release and slides can be accessed under the news and events tab.
Before we begin our prepared remarks, Ken Neikirk will make a statement regarding forward-looking information, Ken.
Ken Neikirk
During this conference call, we anticipate making certain projections and forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and assumptions as of today.
Such forward-looking statements may include projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results, all statements in this conference call or in the associated presentation, other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements and are made under the safe harbor provisions of the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1,995.
Our actual future results may differ materially from our projections and forward-looking statements due to a number and variety of risks, uncertainties, assumptions and factors including those set forth in slide 2 of our presentation and our most recently filed annual report on form 10-K, our quarterly reports on form 10 Q and in our other filings with the SEC, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and we do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. We disclaim any written or oral statements made by any third party regarding the subject matter of this conference call. Also during this call, certain non GAAP financial disclosures may be made in accordance with SEC rules.
The final slide of our presentation provides reconciliations of certain non GAAP measures to comparable GAAP financial measures. These reconciliations along with this presentation, the earnings press release, our annual report on form 10 K and a replay of this broadcast will be available under the for the investor section of our website at www dot helix esg dotcom. Please remember that information on this conference call speaks only as of today. October 24th 2024 and therefore you are advised that any time sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of any replay of this call sky.
Scotty Sparks
Thanks, Ken and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. I hope everyone is doing well this morning, we will review our third quarter and year-to-date results, financial performance and operations. We'll provide our view of the current market and update our guidance for 2024 starting with the presentation slides. Six and seven, provide a high level summary of our results and key highlights for the quarter. The team's offshore and onshore app performed again, producing another well executed quarter revenues for the quarter were $342 million with a gross profit of $66 million with resulting net income of $29.5 million adjusted even though was $88 million for the quarter. And we had positive operating cash flow of $56 million resulting in strong free cash flow of $53 million.
Our cash and liquidity remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of $324 million in liquidity of $ 399 million. Our financial results were negatively impacted by the significant mobilisations for the Q 4,000 located in Nigeria from the Gulf of Mexico and the Q 7,000 transferring from south eastern Australia to the northwest of Australia 105 days in total of account and deferral of revenues and costs impacted the Q3 reporting.
Additionally, we incurred high unexpected weather related downtime of approximately '12 days in shallow water, Abadi due to hurricanes, Francine and Helene. This caused an estimated revenue loss of up to ' $10 million without any significant reduction in our costs resulting in a meaningful hit to our highlights for the quarter include arrival of the Q 4,000 in Nigeria to commence a six month contract plus options. Strong results in robotics with high utilization, performing renewables works in free regions, transit of the Q 7,000 to North West Australia and commencement of a final campaign in the region contracting both the Seam Helix one and Seam Helix two on long term three year contracts with Petrobras contracting the Q 5,000 to shell for a minimum two year 175 days per year commitment plus options in the Gulf of Mexico.
We're excited that these new contracts are over 800 million of backlog in multiple years of committed utilization to our business.
At quarter end, our year-to-date revenues were $ 1 billion with a gross profit of $ 161 million with a resulting net income of $36 million million.
Year-to-date adjusted even if it was 300 sorry, it was $232 million and we had positive operating cash flow of $108 million resulting in positive free cash flow of $98 million. These key financial metrics are all improved over 2023 results over to slide 9, slide nine provides a more detailed review of our segment results and segment utilization.
In the third quarter, we continued to operate globally with minimal operational disruption with operations in Europe, Asia, Pacific, Brazil, Africa, the Gulf of Mexico and the US East Coast.
Our overall third quarter results were in line with expectations driven by our core. One intervention markets globally, strong results of our robotics group and shallow water abandonment improved quarter over quarter despite the impacts of the hurricanes moving to slide. 10, slide '10 provides further detail of our intervention segments. We achieved strong utilization in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and Australia performing very well with a solid overall uptime efficiency of 99% for the quarter.
The Q 7,000 performed extremely well with 100% utilization working in Australia. The vessel is expected to complete working in Australia shortly and then commence the paid transit to Brazil for the shell Decommissioning campaign which has now been extended to a minimum 400 day contract.
We had solid utilization for both units in the Gulf of Mexico with the Q 4,000 completing paid transits in Nigeria for the co minimum six month well campaign that commenced earlier this month.
The accounting for the pay transit impacted Q3 as the mobilization fees were deferred again. We are very pleased with the recently announced long term contracts for both the Seam Helix vessels for Petrobras in Brazil and the Q 5,000 for Shell in the Gulf of Mexico.
Moving to slide 11, slide '11 provides further detail of our robotics business. Robotics had another very strong quarter. The business performed at high standards operating six vessels during the quarter between trenching RV support and site survey work on renewables and oil and gas related projects globally.
All six vessels worked on renewables related projects within the quarter and all vessels had strong utilization with three vessels working on trenching projects.
The GC three in the North Sea enabler trenching in Europe and the sea and Topaz trenching in Taiwan. The Sheila Board along worked on various renewable related projects on the east coast and the IPL was deployed for the quarter on the east coast undertaking renewables related trenching from a client provided vessel, robotics is performing very well and we expect them to have another strong year slide. '12 provides detail of our shallowwater abandonment business.
Key free activities have always reflect seasonal improvements over Q2 for most of the asset classes. However, as noted, the business was impacted by two hurricanes during the quarter leading to less than expected utilization and the shallow water abandonment business continues to experience a sluggish market in 2024.
In Q3, we continued on the larger full field Decommissioning project with the project utilizing the Epic Qed heavy lift barge, some of the dive vessels support vessels and Aris our production facilities segment was negatively impacted by the unplanned, shutting on the Thunder Hawk Field at the end of July with production remaining offline.
In summary, we had a very strong quarter and it could have been even better absent the mobilization of the Q 4,000 and the Q 7,000 and the downtime from the weather in the Gulf of Mexico during Q3.
As previously mentioned, we entered 2025 with our newly contracted well, intervention assets, legacy contracts and entering contracts with improved market rates with a good degree of secured work for the coming years.
We'd like to thank our employees for their efforts, securing a strong backlog and delivering at a high level of execution. And I turn the call over to Brent.
Brent Arriaga
Thanks Scotty, moving to slide '14. It outlines our debt instruments and key balance sheet metrics as of September 13th.
At quarter end, we had cash of $324 million in availability under the A bl of $75 million with resulting liquidity of $ 399 million in August. We extended the terms of our ABL and increased the size of the LC basket. Our abl availability decreased in Q3 due to increases in our LC usage related to our Nigeria contract.
Our funded debt was $ 324 million and we have negative net debt of $9 million at quarter end.
I'll now turn the call over to Eric for a discussion of our outlook for 2024 and beyond.
Thanks, Brent. Our team performed well in the quarter Q3 has historically been our highest quarter but was impacted by the higher transit and mobilization days and weather downtime. Nonetheless, our quarter results were in line with expectations and our year-to-date results improved year over year. As we enter Q4, we do expect seasonal impact to our operations particularly in the North Sea Gulf of Mexico Shelf and APAC region that said we are tightening our guidance of certain key financial metrics from our forecast. Our revenue guidance is $1.3 billion to $1.365 billion .EBITA $ 280 million to $310 million . We have narrowed our ebita guidance. Our new range reflects our year-to-date actual results including the impacts of weather events in the Gulf of Mexico Shelf and unplanned shut ins in our offshore production wells free cash flow. We are increasing our guidance to $120million to $150 million million.
The improved cash flow outlook is driven by expected lower working capital outflow flows in 2024 and the range provided contemplates the variability in capital spending due to some spend possibly shifting to the right into 2025.
We also note that our full year free cash flow guidance includes the $58 million impact from the earn out payment that was made in Q2, excluding that impact of the earn out. Our full year free cash flow range would be $ 178million to $208 million capital spending. We're reducing our forecast to $55million to $ 70 million million. The lower end of the guidance is based on approved amounts moving into 2025.
Our spend continues to be a mix of regulatory maintenance in our vessels and fleet renewal of our robotics. Rovs.
These ranges involve some key assumptions and estimates and any significant variation from these assumptions and estimates could cause us to result results to fall outside these ranges.
Moving on to slide '17 as discussed, our fourth quarter results will be impacted by winter seasonal weather in the northern hemisphere. The variability in our fourth quarter guidance range is dependent on the length and extent of operations working into the winter season, namely in the North Sea well intervention and robotics businesses in our Asia PAC robotics operations and in the Gulf of Mexico for shallow water abandonment.
We commenced our Nigeria work on Q 4,000 in October and our four corner results may be affected by the expected ultimate duration of that contract. And we expect variability on oil and gas production depending on the length of the of our prosy wells into Q4.
Reviewing our balance sheet. Our funded debt stands at $324 million with no significant maturities until 2029. We are still targeting ' $20million to $30 million share purchases in our in our 2024 program with ' $10 million done year-to-date providing some key assumptions for the remainder of the year by segment and region starting in slide '18 first with our well intervention segment. The Gulf of Mexico continues to be a strong market for Helix. The Q 5,000 is contracted through the remainder of the year and we reach your minimum 175 day per year commitment on the Q 5,000. Beginning in 2025 the Q 4,000 completed its transit to West Africa in September and went on hire mid October for its minimum six month contract in Nigeria with deferred mobilization revenue and cost on this project.
Our reporting will depend on application of counting rules to the ultimate duration of the contract or other opportunities that would extend our operations in Nigeria in the UK, North Sea. We are anticipating a return to seasonally adjusted utilization in the winter months and expect the Seawell and well enhancer will be utilized through midpoint Q4 possibility of working later into the winter season provides upside potential within our guidance range.
The Q 7,000 is currently working on its final project of this campaign in Australia which is expected to continue through October followed by a scheduled transit and mobilization for contracted work in Brazil expected to commence in early '25 in Brazil. The CM Helix two is contracted into Mid December with petrobras followed by vessel acceptance and mobilization for its new three year contract. The duration of that period in Q4 provides variability within our guidance range.
The CM Helix one is contract is contracted performing well abandonment work for trident into Q4 of 2025. We expect to benefit from the trident contract extension and petrobras contracts and improved growth in 2025 to our robotics segment continues to benefit from a tight market for both oil and gas and renewable markets are extremely active competing for assets. Our robotic segment is affected by seasonality and activity levels in the North Sea and APAC are to be impacted by seasonality as usual in the winter months. APAC region.
The Grand Canyon Two is providing RV support offshore Malaysia and the CM Topaz is performing renewables trenching offshore Taiwan both expected into December. The potential for further work in December provides upside within our guidance in the North Sea. The Grand Canyon three and the North Sea neighbor are performing trenching projects and are expected to remain utilized for the remainder of the year. The Glomar wave is forecasted to remain on site clearance operations through October in the US. The Salli Borlan is off the US east coast providing wind farm support expected into November and the potential for further work this year on the east coast of or or Gulf of Mexico provide potential upside within our guidance range, moving to production facilities. The HP one is on contract for the balance of 2024 and no expected change. As mentioned earlier in the call, the Thunder Hawk wells are temporarily shut in and we expect our rosy wells will be shut in for approximately 5 to 6 weeks for facilities work to be conducted by the facility owner.
Our forecast takes the shut ins into account but the duration of the shut ins could affect our results going forward.
Continue with shallow water. Continue to anticipate this to be a seasonal business with the decline in investment activity in line with the winter weather arrival in the Gulf of Mexico. Our outlook range includes variability depending on the timing and extent of the winter season.
Shelty commission is a call off business but given customer needs a continued reversion of problems, bankruptcy, long term. We still believe in the in the solid foundation for this market at this time. I'll turn the call back to over for a discussion on beyond 2024 and proposing comments.
Thanks Eric and good morning to everyone. Things are good and I'm pleased with Helix results. Helix generated $88 million in ebitda in Q3. It's third largest quarterly EBITDA since 2014. And that's despite the slow shallowwater abandonment segment and the one offs that were mentioned earlier, Helix is in great shape and positioned well for the future.
Robotics is performing very well with foreseeable growth in the wind farm market for both trenching and site clearance, abandonment and production enhancement demand and well intervention is strong and currently exceeding our capacity to supply shallow water is experiencing a slow down, slow year as previously covered with results more negative than our initial expectations due to the softer market, hurricane disruptions, the carrying costs, we feel we need to keep in place in order to be ready for a rebound in 2025.
As mentioned earlier this year, there was going to be and there has been noise in our second half reported results. As Eric has covered first, the hurricane disruptions impacted the shallow water to a greater extent than typically considered to the extension of work for the Q 7,000 in Australia. Although an overall positive is at a lower legacy margin than the next contracted work in Brazil which will now be deferred to start in early '25.
The 67 days of mobilization of the Q 4,000 to its initial six month contract in Nigeria adds noise to Q3 reporting as the paid mob and de mob or the paid, the paid mode fees and costs were not recognized in Q3 but are advertised over the term of the contract.
The Q 7,038 day transit and mobilization from Southeast Australia to Northwest Australia creates more noise due to the accounting treatment.
Thunderhawk production went offline July 28th and remains offline.
There are always ups and downs in the business. Most of our business segments are executing as expected or better offsetting these onetime impacts. We've tried to capture the net effects and the accounting treatment and our revised guidance. We reiterate the expected improvements in 2025 and we should see 60 to $100 million increase in da for well interventions, continued performance, robotics and a rebound in shallow water during the past quarter. There's been a couple of topics that have dominated the inbound questions from our investors. First, there was an anonymous story on Potential M&A activities at Helix as company policy. We don't comment on rumors and speculations as we've consistently communicated with investors. We recognize that our strong outlook, healthy balance sheet evaluation of strategic growth opportunities and willingness to entertain M&A options will continue to generate market chatter.
Second, there's been a significant messaging of a softer market for 2025 for upstream service providers. Helix has intentionally developed our business line to focus on the downstream segments of oil and gas which are largely driven by Opex rather than capex spending. As a result. We believe that the Helix model is more resilient in the softener market than most capex dependent business models. Helix is also well positioned by having four of our seven major assets already committed on 2 to 3 year contracts.
Our robotics business is primarily focused on the offshore wind market which we feel is well positioned to continue to get stronger for us. A software oil and gas market may actually not be a bad thing for us as we anticipate even stronger free cash flow generation for Helix with good visibility.
The price point for capital allocation for growth may become better and more rational for a full cycle of consideration, accounting noise and give takes aside free cash flow generation for 2024 has been greater than expected and recall that absent the alliance are now paid back in April. Our free cash flow for the year would have been even higher.
There's been noise in the 2024 as predicted, but overall Helix is moving directionally up and expected as we are looking into the 2025 year ahead.
Thanks and back to you, Ken
Ken Neikirk
Excellent operator at this time will take any questions.
Question and Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. At this time. I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star and the number one in your telephone keypad, we will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster.
And your first question comes from the line of Jim Raison with Raymond James. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning everyone. And it seems like you've got pretty good visibility now for well intervention going into next year, given the recent contract signings and, and your mention of the $60million to $ 100 million of incremental even. You've also been talking about the softness this year in shallow water, abandonment business relative to the really strong last year. What kind of visibility do you have going into next year? On the improvement? Like how comfortable are you from, you know, just kind of how things have shaked out this year. How, how comfortable are you with that view on improvement for '25.
Brent Arriaga
We're Jim we're in the middle of our budgeting process right now, but I can tell you that the first pass, which is from our guys, we do a bottom up budgeting. And it is showing improvement over this year. If I am, I'm trying to quantify things for you. We don't have a budget for you yet. But if you remember back when we made the acquisition, the expectations were somewhere around a $ 40million $50 million year, you know, $ 40 millionto $60 million year. Last year was truly an a an anomaly and I, we're, I'd say we're definitely not going to reach that level. But the bidding activity that we're seeing is starting to pick up of the act. Just the general activity this late in the year is actually picking up. So, I would say that it's, it's fair to say that we should be back in the range that we originally predicted as a typical range for this business.
Got it. That would be a pretty nice year over year improvement as well. So, on the free cash flow part, I think a quarter or two ago, you talked about getting, you know, maybe next year north of $200 million . And, and now if you stripped out the year, not, you're, you're basically on track to almost be there this year. How should we think about free cash flow next year in the context of, you know, the incrementals from well intervention and from shallow water and then maybe plus or minus the fact, I think Eric mentioned capex might actually some roll into next year. But like, how are you thinking about cap cash free cash flow next year? And, and then what are you thinking about doing with it?
Brent Arriaga
So I'll take the first part and then pass it back to Owen. Obviously, we're, we are bullish on, on our free cash flow generation as we've talked about, I think overall this year, we're definitely benefiting from some of the you could say the working capital flowback from, from our growth that we experienced back in 2023. And So, so absent any significant working capital fluctuations, we would expect a definitely improvement in our free cash flow. Next year. I think obviously the, the key elements that impact that, you know, we've talked about capex this year in general, we've guided to about $70 million to $80 million of capex per year. I believe we'll probably be in that range. We'll still need to work through that. But we have the ability to manage within that range. I think our taxes will probably be a little bit higher as, as we become a US taxpayer towards the end of the year. But we feel very good about our, our free cash flow generation and I think we've talked about it being in that, that $200 million range for next year and as far as uses for it, I'll turn that back to Owen Kratz
Well, you know, it would be easy for me to recite. What I've said in the past is that we're first going to look for a capital allocation for growth. we're going to main continue our share repurchase program and then the remainder would be a cash build. I would say that you know, growth companies in a cyclical industry should be wary about the expending their cash in up cycles and then look for the opportunity to deploy in down cycles. The recent market dynamics surrounding market sentiment towards a market softening here. Sort of gives you pause and makes you start to think about you know, is there going to be a rationalization and pull back in the pricing of potential growth capital allocation that would have a major effect or an impact on our decision making process. But we're always looking for the best allocation of capital that generates the greatest shareholder returns.
Appreciate the interest guys. Thanks,
Brent Arriaga
Operator. Are there further questions?
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of James schumm from TD Cowen Thank you. Please go ahead.
Okay.
Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions.
You know, you mentioned in shallow water, the the ' $10 million loss of revenues in Q3 without any, you know, it really cost relief there. So just curious is this, you know, will that benefit be deferred and recouped in Q4 or will there be no impact to Q4?
Scotty Sparks
So we won't be recouping any of those monies back. It was a pure hit in Q3. Unfortunately, the the hurricanes that went through were in the path of a lot of our work sites. So in, in that event, in the shallow water, unfortunately, the contract was set that the clients just put us off high. So it was unexpected. As we move into Q4 at the moment, I don't see any hurricanes on the on the horizon. And so hopefully, we're coming out of hurricane season, but we will start entering into the sea in the winter mode. So we will expect that the work will drop off coming here in towards the end of October or into November, depending on when the northerly blows come down into the Gulf of Mexico.
Okay. And then can you, can you give some more color on it looks like you're going to have, you know, shut ins or on the drosy and the, the Thunderhawk fields. Can you help us quantify the EBITA from Drosy and separately Thunderhawk?
Scotty Sparks
So on a, from the rosy standpoint, Jim, we expect it to be shut in here until early to mid November. So it's, you know, let's say 5 to 6 weeks. So it's from that standpoint, it's it's not, not a very significant hit. I think the Thunder Hawk once again, I think right now we're undertaking investigations into that. And so we are in our assumptions, assume no production from that and that is at least a couple of million dollars for the quarter.
Okay, thanks. And then just like a housekeeping one, like what, how many well intervention vessel transit days do you expect in, in Q4?
Scotty Sparks
So in Q4, the, the, you know, we completed the transit and mobilization on the Q 4,000. So we went on hire early to mid October. So there'll be a few days there and then the Q 7,000, once it completes its Australia work, end of October early November essentially will be in transit in mode for the rest of the, of the quarter into Q1.
So, that's
Like 60 days.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Right.
Sorry, I didn't hear you, Scotty. How many
Scotty Sparks
63 days is the current plan?
Great.
Great. Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.
Okay.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of David Smith with Pickering Energy Partners. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Good morning and thank you for taking my question morning and I just wanted to circle back to your remarks about the topics of investor interest. You know, we're, we're also seeing that growing concern about a softening deep water market, potential pricing pressure on the, the the sixth generation fleet. And you gotta think some of that concern has has impacted your stock price with a perception that six gen, you know, rig pricing competition could impact your business next year. So I just wanted to, to ask, am I wrong thinking that less than 20% probably of your heavy well intervention? That's all availability is actually open next year and, and probably less than half is, is open for '20 six.
Scotty Sparks
I'll take that. So the Q 7,000 as, as we know will be on the shell contract for a minimum 400 days with options, the Q 4,000 will be six months with options, sizable options in Nigeria on a good contract, the sh one will be with Triton and then we will transfer over to Petra on a three year contract at much improved rates. And the H two will transfer over here in January from the existing contract with Petrobras to the new three year contracts with Petrobras at much better market rates. So that only really leaves us a bit of time to find on the Q 5,000, which is contracted with Shell for a minimum 175 days and we already have work booked in for that. So I see we have virtually no time left for next year on the Q 5,000, the North Sea vessels, they're spot related assets that we see and we expect that we will warm stack at some point in the winter and then we'll get going again in Q1 and should have a strong summer through, through the summer months and through Q2 and Q3 for both of those assets. Also again, back to seasonal activity is the best way to think of it in the North Sea right now. But the heavy assets are all contracted at good contracts with much improved market rates for 2025.
I I appreciate that. It is remarkable how those vessels have turned up. Certainly a different contracting trajectory than the, the 16th loaders have seen this year. What I wanted to ask if, if you're having real discussions on your '26 availability for the heavy well intervention assets or do you see a likely return toward toward the, the swap market activity
Scotty Sparks
In 2026? So you both the Sh Sels will be contracted up. We'll be working with Shell on the Q 7,000 in Brazil and they have good options and, and showing the high visibility of further work for '26 the Q 5,000 will have its shell back backline contract. So that's in good shape and we'll have to decide whether we leave the Q 4,000 in Africa or come back to the Gulf. But if we do come back to the Gulf, that will be more spot activity.
very much, appreciate it. I will circle back into the queue.
Scotty Sparks
We shall take the Q 5,000 that gives us a good backstop for other contracts and keeping the other clients happy with the Q 4,000.
Absolutely. Appreciate the color.
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Josh Chan with Daniel Energy Partners. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my questions. First, I wanted to just talk about the robotics market as we look at what you guys have been able to achieve over the course of this year and looking forward. So chartered vessel utilization in the mid 90s, Rov and Trening organization in the high 70s. You haven't talked as much into '25 as you have with respect to the Well, intervention market. But I'm just curious, could you talk about the visibility you have for the robotics business today into next year and beyond? How many of the assets are essentially spoken for for next year? Maybe just a little bit more detail around that business?
Scotty Sparks
So currently we have six vessels working in robotics and we expect to, to go to stay with six vessels next year.
I would say we have probably the best visibility we've ever had in trenching. And we, we are undertaking tenders out to 2028 and 2030. We have contracted work through '26 and into '27 for trenching and trenching is the niche part of the robotics business. The market is tight from a renewals perspective. It's also tight from an oil and gas perspective. Nobody over the last few years has built any Rovs. So there's actually a shortage in the market for Rov services both in renewables and oil and gas. So I would expect to see continued similar utilization for robotics and hopefully a better outlook in trenching and increased rates with trenching also.
Okay, thanks. And then I wanted to double back to one of the comments that that Owen made about sort of free cash flow and ultimately what to do with it. I assume it's going to get a lot more interest as we as you guys move forward into next year with just the strength of all of the businesses improving in including the most in well intervention. Just what when you talk about that free cash flow number. First, is there any reason that capex should deviate from what you guys have been spending in the, in the next couple of years? And then second, when you look about when you look around and opportunities to grow, what are the, what are the types of things you would look to potentially add to your to the portfolio? Are there opportunities to convert another maybe an idle asset into an intervention vessel or something of that nature or would it would it be something else in the offshore space? Thanks.
Brent Arriaga
Well, quite a question.
Oh, I'm sorry.
Now, I think as far as the opportunities go, I think there's a we're, we're our visibility is for increasing demand in each one of the niches that we occupy right now. So there is opportunity. Scotty mentioned the growth of the trenching market.
I'm sorry, sorry about that. Anyway, Scotty mentioned the growth in the trenching market. So I do see the potential that in capacity there, the robotics segment, there's a potential that in capacity there in the shallow water abandonment. You know, we're sort of in a wait and see and let the market prove itself of that. It's going to be as strong as we anticipate. But there, there's a potential, one of the strategic reasons why we made the acquisition in the Gulf of Mexico was because we also saw a nascent market in Brazil and Australia.
So, and we're actually tendering for some work in Brazil. So there there could be an opportunity to deploy capital to enter that new market. And then the big one, more intervention capacity right now, you know, I'm not told the market, we're probably we, we were through the downturn, we were probably a vessel and a half, too heavy and now we're probably a vessel and a half. You like there is the opportunity for work right now. But I think you have to look long term through the full cycle. And the pricing expectations on assets in recent years really exploded from where they were three years ago. So I think you have to be patient. But if a if a client comes to us and wants our services and they need a vessel, then for the right contract, we consider it.
Scotty Sparks
And as far as that, as far as managing capex, you know, I think we, we feel comfortable that for our existing assets to be able to manage within that $70million to $80 million range, obviously, there will be variability in there, but I believe we feel comfortable in that range. Of course, that doesn't include any growth opportunities that that, that Owen has addressed.
Understood. Thanks there. I'll turn it back.
Operator
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Greg.
Thank you and thanks for taking my questions.
Scotty, it's good to see that, you know, the Q4 up and running in, in West Africa. You know, you, you, you called out those options on that, unit. What, what kind of sense do you get for the lead time for, for when they need to exercise those options? Just as, as you, continue to plan the, you know, the outlook for the Q4.
Scotty Sparks
I, I think there's a good chance that what portion of the options will be taken, Jim, but I don't think we'll have that firmed up until Q1 of next year.
Okay. Okay, great. And then just as we, as we think about that, you know, the mobilization time from Gulf of Mexico to HFA was about 30 days.
Scotty Sparks
So all up, I think it was about 67 days.
We Had, We had to take the vessel to the dock and do the vessel hardening and security and all that before we actually set off. But we, we did get paid or get paid quite a good number for, for that mobilization to Africa.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And there's a demo too, right?
Scotty Sparks
Yeah, it's a size
Okay. And then on, on the robotic side, you know, I guess maybe I didn't appreciate how, how, I mean, and I guess you'll lay it out pretty clearly. How much of the business is renewable versus can you know, traditional oil energy a any kind of split you guys can talk about in terms of, of revenue of robotics between what that mix is.
Brent Arriaga
Yeah, good morning Greg. On the, on the robotic side, renewables typically is about half of our robotics business, which is about 20% of the company. So you're looking at about 10% overall.
Okay. And, and is that, and, and then like just as I think about robotics, like the, the as I, I guess they're all assets, but between the is it safe to kind of assume like the the the the trenchers are, largely all renewable?
Scotty Sparks
Yes, that's, that's a good assumption.
And we're seeing the trenching market not only expand in Europe, but also in Asia Pacific and the US East Coast as well
Okay.
Alright,
Guys, perfect, super helpful. Thank you very much.
Scotty Sparks
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. And your final question comes from the line of David Smith with Pickering Energy Partners. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks for letting me back in in your presentation. There's that the, the comments about, well, intervention rate increases expected to, to increase '25 even by 60 to 100 million versus '24. I'm sorry if you touched on this and I missed it. But could, could you please talk a little about the, the factors impacting that range?
Scotty Sparks
And so obviously, I think the, the, the big issue has been the, or the big impact is the new contracts that we announced here in the, in the third quarter. I think we talked about rate improvements over what we've realized to date in '24. With those new contracts in Brazil, approximately 40% higher in '25. And with the, the, the shell contract, what we're able to realize is approximately 20% higher rates than what we're, what we're able to deliver this year. So those are the components of it. Also that we've talked about the, the Q 7,000 working in Brazil. From that standpoint, I think that's one where we expect to generate better margins on that vessel than what we, what we're generating today under the contracts in the APAC region.
Yeah, for sure. Thank you. I understand the because of the factors behind the increase. I I was just thinking about that $40 million range of, you know, that, that comment about '25 people are up by 60 to 100 million factors impacting that 40 million range.
Scotty Sparks
So obviously, I think at the end of the day, overall utilization impact on that would, would, would impact that as well. Also the, you could say that mobilization period on the Q 7,000, if it starts early January, obviously, that would be a lot higher than if it starts in March. And so there there are give and takes as far as as when the, the the assets are working, that the, that are built into that assumption of 60 to 100.
Very much appreciate it if I could.
So, '11 more follow up and circling back to the, the question about the Q 4,000, you know, option being an exercise. I, I was curious if you've seen, you know, the interest in the Q 4,000 for, for work in West Africa be beyond the, the firm contract and option. And you know, if so, are there any reasons that you might not keep the Q 4,000 in West Africa for an extended period?
Scotty Sparks
I mean, I I'll take that, but obviously, the other clients in the region are aware that we're there in Nigeria working away now. So it's not often an intervention vessel goes over to, to Nigeria. So there's a good degree of interest with two or three other operators after the Exxon contract. But we have to be mindful of what we want to do in the Gulf of Mexico. We've, we've shall take the Q 5,000 with its backstop contract and we don't want to lose the market share in the Gulf of Mexico with clients that we've had for a long time as well. So it will be a balance and act of how busy the Gulf is compared to the other works on offer to us in, in Nigeria.
This is where I would circle back to my comment that we're a vessel and a half short of the meeting, the demand that we have right now. You know, we, we've taken the Q 4,000 to West Africa. There is a strong market there. We haven't even started to penetrate Angola yet Guyana is on the horizon of needing well intervention assets down there. And, and of course, we're taking an asset out of Australia, which is, there's also demand built up down there. So that's where, that's where it's very easy for me to say that we're, we're a vessel and a half short from being able to meet the demand that we're seeing
Very much. Appreciate it. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. And your final question comes from the line of James Schumm with TD Cowen Thank you. Please go ahead.
Hey guys, thanks for letting me back in. I, I just want to ask like, what is driving the lower EBITA guidance this year? There's a number of things that I could point to, but I just want to see what, how you guys are framing that
In reference to our, our guidance for full year, essentially the fourth quarter or
Yeah, yeah, I mean the, the, the, the '24 EBITA guidance is lowered at the midpoint $5 million . So what's driving that is a three Q weakness, is it, you know, I'll, you know, I'll let you answer. There's some, you know, incremental weakness in Q4. What do you point to.?
So, so obviously, I think overall, we did have some negatives that impacted us in, in the third quarter. What in what was overall still a very strong quarter for us? I think the, you talked about the weather impact there. And, and obviously that, that flows through to, to our overall guidance and of course, the shutting in production. And then I think, you know, overall we still have a fairly wide range for the fourth quarter gym. And, and that really is driven by really the timing of when the the seasonal impact will, will hit our our assets in the Gulf of Mexico and in the North Sea. So, those are the variables. I, I think some of the one offs that, that hit us in, in the Q3 obviously flowed through to, the overall year. We have the ability to, make that back if, if our seasons go, longer than what we're anticipating, but that's all built into the range that we provided the market.
Got it. Thanks Eric. And then just last one for me, Scotty, you mentioned that the, the Rov market is very tight. I was just wondering, could you give, could you give me a sense of like where you see Rov pricing this year and like is it up 10% or, and then what are your expectations for next year?
Scotty Sparks
I think we will see a tightening of the market. The rates have certainly increased over the last '18 months to two years. The tenders that are going out currently still have increases in them. So I'd say if the market stays tight, we should see at least a 10% increase in RV and personnel that go out on the trenching side. We're certainly increasing the rates, the rates have increased, I would say 15% going into next year. And then as some of the tenders that we look to further on even higher, but obviously, we will have some cost creep as we expand out into those years as well. There'll be additional crewing costs and stuff as we go further out,
Right, Okay. That's great. Thank you guys very much.
Thank you.
Operator
There are no questions at this time.
Thanks for joining us today. We very much appreciate your interest and participation and look forward to having you on our fourth quarter, 2024 call in February 2025. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining you. May now disconnect.