Q3 2024 Destination XL Group Inc Earnings Call

Participants

Shelly Mokas; Vice President of Financial Reporting and SEC Compliance; Destination XL Group

Harvey Kanter; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Destination XL Group Inc

Peter Stratton; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer; Destination XL Group Inc

Michael Baker; Analyst; D. A. Davidson & Co.

Jeremy Hamblin; Analyst; Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC

Presentation

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Destination XL Group Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Shelly Mokas, Vice President of Financial Reporting, and the SEC Compliance at DXL. Please go ahead, Shelly.

Shelly Mokas

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on Destination XL Group's Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. On our call today are our President and Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Kanter; and our Chief Financial Officer, Peter Stratton. During today's call, we will discuss some non-GAAP metrics to provide investors with useful information about our financial performance. Please refer to our earnings release, which was filed this morning and is available on our Investor Relations website at investor.dxl.com for an explanation and reconciliation of such measures.
Today's discussion also contains certain forward-looking statements concerning the company's sales and earnings guidance long-range strategic plan and other expectations for fiscal 2024. Such forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and that could cause actual results to differ materially from those assumptions mentioned today due to a variety of factors that affect the company. Information regarding risks and uncertainties is detailed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Harvey Kanter. Harvey?

Harvey Kanter

Thank you, Shelly, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate all of you joining us today.
Let me start off by acknowledging that DXL's business continued to be challenged in the third quarter by consumer spending headwinds, which resulted in lower traffic to our stores and lower conversion online. Despite these challenges, we have maintained our disciplined operating regimen, and we have avoided a material erosion in merchandise margin, while keeping our inventory position healthy and controlling our operating expenses.
Now with that high-level overview, as noted, let me set today's more detailed agenda for our review. There are three topics that I will cover in greater detail. First, I'd like to update you on the current environment and our quarterly results. Second, I want to talk a bit about our expectations for the fourth quarter. And third, I'd like to update you on the progress we are making against our long-term strategic initiatives.
Let me get started with the current environment. It's frustrating to be talking about the macro environment once again in Q3, but our customers are still holding very tight to their wallets. We continue to face consumer spending headwinds, and it appears buying new closes has just not been a priority for the big and tall consumer. Customers who are coming in and choosing to spend their hard-earned dollars with us are gravitating towards lower-priced goods and select promotions.
To that end, our third quarter results reflect a continued shift towards more affordable, value-driven options. Both in-store and in our direct channels, customers have been moving away from better and best tiered higher price point brands and are gravitating towards moderate, lower price point national brands and our private brands such as Harbor Bay, our more entry-level opening price point brand. We had some modest success with the promotion during Columbus Day weekend.
But overall, for the quarter, we have been seeing a consumer who is carefully choosing where and how he spends his money. Our competitive research suggests that others in men's apparel are struggling as well. But we do believe based on data we have seen that we are gaining share of wallet at least from other Big and Tall retailers in the space and despite an overall down environment for the category.
I expect many of you saw our press release this morning, which detailed our financial results. Our sales so far in November continued to pace a low- to mid-teens negative comp. Unfortunately, the down cycle and negative trend that we've been speaking to all year is reflected in the continued softness in the Big and Tall consumer demand as our results show.
Let me quickly go through a few specifics on the quarterly results. We'll start with comparable sales, which declined 11.3% for the quarter. Stores were down 9.9%, while direct was down 14.7%. So we are seeing a little their performance in stores and worse performance in direct as compared to the second quarter. The progression in comp sales across the quarter was mixed. In August, we saw the combined comp sales decline of negative 10.4%.
In September, comp sales fell back further to negative 12.2%. And in October, comp sales were negative 11.2%. In stores, the story for Q3 is much the same as Q1 and Q2. Our struggle continues to be primarily related to a lack of traffic, while conversion is up and average transaction value is holding its own. Driving traffic has been impacting our growth now for well over a year, and we do not believe this is unique to DXL. We believe the overall men's category is struggling, and our intel would say it is worst in Big and Tall.
In the digital space, the primary reason for our sales decline was due to a decrease in conversion. We have seen some level of uptick in sales momentum for promotions, but not every promotion has worked and the results are inconsistent. We believe this is an indication of a more discerning and promotionally driven customer, and if we catch them at the time he is looking for greater value and discounts, we've seen an uptick. But this has not happened across the board when we have run promotions.
We have strategically tested several different promotional formats as tactical tools to drive sales, which is only met with limited success. For example, we used a test and control approach with a tiered offer, which effectively means the more you spend, the more you save. We also tested a free $20 offer with different spend threshold and saw mixed results. Ultimately, we know the market continues to be challenged, and our view is that we are still in the grips of a downward cycle and the lower price points and enhanced value are clearly important.
We were encouraged this past weekend with the cold snap and a promotion around sweaters and outerwear, where the consumer responded. We will continue to evaluate selected promotion, which we believe can leverage elastic demand and be executing well on the fundamentals, controlling what we control. We will be ready to meet the customer when the current down cycle breaks and he comes back to shop once again.
I do want to highlight elements that we believe we control and have controlled well despite the challenging environment around us. Our inventory balance at the end of Q3 was $89.1 million as compared to $99.9 million last year or a decrease of over 10%. Despite the weak sales demand, our clearance penetration at 9.2% remains in line with our long-term target of 10% and is down slightly from 9.7% in the third quarter of 2023.
Obviously, our sales results are far less than we planned at the beginning of the year, but I'm very proud of our team's resilience to strategically manage the flow of receipts and manage slower moving inventory with selected markdowns to avoid any buildup in our excess inventory. We still expect to finish the year with less inventory than we had on hand last year and our inventory turns have continued to improve once again in 2024 as compared to 2023.
Shifting over to the assortment, business was down in virtually every category. Both stores and direct channels saw a stronger performance in entry-level priced brands. Our sales mix between private label and designer collections moved up over a full percentage point in favour of our private brands and lower price points. We have struggled a bit competing with some of our national brands who on their very own websites have offered richer discounts and promotions.
In fact, in response to this pressure, we have introduced a new price match guarantee and program to ensure our prices remain competitive. From a category performance, sportswear continues to account for approximately 76%, tailor clothing approximately 20% and footwear 4%.
I'm also happy to report that we opened two more stores in the third quarter, with one in the Phoenix market in Mesa, Arizona and one in the Houston market in Sugarland, Texas. This now brings us to seven new stores opened since the beginning of last year with four more to be opened by the end of the fiscal year. Our primary objective with new stores is to address ease of access, and as we have shared before, 44% of our poll consumers don't shop with us because stores do not exist near them and 35% shop -- do not shop with us because there is no store immediately close by.
Performance in the new stores have been challenging and is similar to what we are seeing in our core business. Traffic has been less than we expected, but we do believe that will turn once again once we get to the other side of this downward cycle.
Now I want to talk to you about our expectations for the fourth quarter. At the end of Q2, we guided the market to a sales range of $470 million to $490 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 6% for the fiscal year. With business continuing to struggle in Q3 and no change in [traffic] get to merge, we are now guiding to the lower end of our sales range with an adjusted EBITDA of approximately 4.5%. We did not expect our business to fall off as sharply as it did this year.
And although our customer has reduced his apparel spend, we have reasons to remain optimistic. Interest rates continue to come down. The election is now behind us and a new administration is preparing to take over in Washington. Our business has struggled due to weak consumer sentiment, and it feels like that sentiment may soon change. We have new initiatives including new loyalty program launching soon, and we have successfully transitioned to a new e-commerce platform. The only limit on what we can do for the entire online customer experience will be our own imagination and creativity to see what we can achieve.
Let me now start to transition to the third topic I want to speak about today, which is our long-term strategic plan. While there is no question that our sales performance has been disappointing and in response, we have had to make some decisions regarding the timing and speed of these initiatives. I do remain incredibly enthusiastic about the progress we've been able to make.
We have been talking for quite a while now about intensifying our marketing efforts, including the new brand campaign. We've also talked about fundamental improvements underway such as switching to a new e-mail provider and launching a new loyalty program. I'd like to give you an update on our segmentation work, how we are using that data to make more informed decisions. And lastly, I want to provide an update on our line with Nordstrom.
So let me now begin with the brand campaign. We do continue to see a lift from the Father's Day brand campaigns, which we tested in three test markets that being Boston, St. Louis, and Detroit. In the test markets, web traffic metrics still look healthy versus the control group and after the campaign ended. While we remain keenly aware of the need to increase brand awareness, it has become increasingly difficult to absorb the upfront brand investment required to build momentum, while market conditions and consumer sentiment has deteriorated.
We have a long-term ambition to deliver brand awareness, but our short-term returns on advertising spend or (technical difficulty) have been challenging. For this reason, we've decided not to move forward with the holiday portion of our brand test. Instead, we are focusing our limited marketing spend on proven, more cost-effective working, marketing tactics and ideas. We will be launching a video campaign albeit not across national broadcast media, but instead primarily in social and the like.
We feel great about what it is and perhaps if we are lucky, consumers will feel compelled to share it, and it will go viral, so to speak, that would be a huge win. We are looking for some leverage points versus direct placement, which has material implications and a long runway to achieve the kind of return we would require, especially at this moment in time. We are also continuing to work on critical foundational elements that are non-negotiate, including e-mail and loyalty.
I'm happy to report that the conversion to our new e-mail provider has stabilized, and we are seeing a slight return to growth in our file. We have aligned with a new loyalty provider and a platform and have further designs in the Evolve Loyalty Program to enhance and drive the strategic priorities of the program. We believe this will better set up DXL for long-term growth and success through a heightened level of loyalty through consumer engagement.
The new program introduces best-in-class loyalty elements such as more compelling benefits based on tier migrations through spend, not through points or loyalty currency. The new program also includes safeguards to control costs. New customers are required to opt into the program, which gives us the ability to measure the performance of loyalty members versus non-loyalty members, gaining critical insight into the incrementality of the program. The new platform and program structure also allows for testing and holdouts for specific offers and promotions, which we can pilot and then scale is successful. We are on track for a launch and go live at the beginning of the new fiscal year.
Let me now switch to our work with customer segmentation. The objective of customer segmentation is to identify naturally occurring consumer segments and leverage that data to better understand how each segment based on underlying needs, attitudes, behaviours, and beliefs can come to life. Our work has uncovered six distinct segments based on consumers' beliefs motivations and behaviours around engagement, shopping, style, retailer, price, and value.
We then utilize this segmentation to data to guide our communication with each different segment, which we believe will fuel meaningfully greater engagement, leading to heightened growth by fostering deeper, more profound relationships with DXL's customers and prospects. The customer segmentation and now defined segment helps us to more -- be more deliberate and efficient in targeting as well as delivering more relevant and purposeful content to drive acquisition and retention through personalization.
Examples include segments such as trend trail brazers, and sharp style seekers, who are the most stylish and fashion forward shopping frequently and placing high importance on the opinion of others. Another segment called Fashionably Guided is looking for shopping help from our sales consultants. Another segment called Comfy Casual plays a comfort first and prefers to shop in line -- excuse me, in stores versus online. It is critical that we understand the differences amongst our customer base so we can lean into appropriate messaging, not just to retain them, but enhance and grow their long-term value and relationship with DXL.
We can better connect to consumers and build stronger relationships by delivering content and messaging tailored to their needs through this deeper understanding of the customer. The last strategic update I want to touch base on is the website replatform. We now have 100% of our site traffic directed to the new platform via commerce tools experience, and we are consistently beating our legacy site metrics.
The first phase, which went live in early June, migrated our homepage and several other static content pages to our new platform with commerce tools. Two weeks ago, the second phase of the project went live. This is a very significant milestone in our replatform as it represents the bulk of the website. It is all our catalogue pages, all our product digital pages and a new site search experience from a best-in-class vendor for retail search and merchandise functionality. We are all very excited about the potential of this new platform.
It leads heavily on natural language processing and artificial intelligence to deliver better responses to customer search queries on our site. It also has the power to incorporate many more data vectors into product sortation and discovery such as regional popularity variations and store inventory near the customer's location. The final phase of the replatform project, which is expected to be completed in early 2025, covers the shopping cart or bag, checkouts accounts and transition to our new loyalty platform.
Just a few features that are arguably the most important part of the online journey because they represent the places where customers need to trust us the most with their log interventions, with their personal information, their credit card numbers and their loyalty certificates. This phase will also see us add on another best-and-best vendor to handle user authentication, bringing that part of the site experience up to the most modern standards. Our new online business with Nordstroms has continued to ramp up as we work to get more product live as fresh fall merchandise is received from our vendors.
An official marketing plan has developed collaboratively by the Nordstrom and vehicle teams. This comprehensive marketing plan will guide our execution for the rest of 2024 and ramp into 2025. Tactics include e-mail and seller pages, personalized DXL brand, content, men's department landing pages, programmatic marketing and in-store training education for sales, staff, and their personal stylists. We now offer 37 brands and over 1,400 styles to choose from.
Our assortment continues to expand with new arrivals added daily as fresh inventory flows in. And in the next month, we will be adding an additional 500 styles to the mix. Overall, the progress at Nordstrom's marketplace has been slow and steady, and we believe will continue to grow over the next few years.
Lastly, I wanted to revisit one of the topics we are frequently asked about and that is the adoption of the GLP-1 and other weight loss drugs. We continue to monitor GLP-1 adoption as it is imperative we stay ahead of the trend to mitigate any possible downside and more importantly, capitalize on any upside that may arise from greater penetration of these drugs in our segment. But we do not know the exact percentage of DXL customers using GLP-1 drugs.
It has been widely reported that as much as 8% of the US population is currently actively on weight loss medications. Anecdotally, we hear in some stores a small subset of our customers are curtailing their spending because they're on a weight loss journey. However, we do not see any material migration in our data to suggest something more demonstrative is evolving. As we've stated before, it is not at all uncommon for our customers to fluctuate their waste line.
What we have seen from many customers is that when his weight fluctuates, it often necessitates augmenting or even fully replacing his wardrobe. We have not observed a more discernible impact on our business, but this conversation continues to be something we are very careful and watching closely. We still have a thesis that over time, GLP-1 drugs will drive change and DXL will be ready to meet the needs of the Big and Tall customer when he is ready.
And with that, I'm now going to ask Peter to run through the third quarter financials before I come back for some closing thoughts. Peter?