Q3 2024 Chord Energy Corp Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Bob Bakanauskas; Vice President, Investor Relations; Chord Energy Corp

Daniel Brown; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Chord Energy Corp

Darrin Henke; Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President; Chord Energy Corp

Richard Robuck; Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer; Chord Energy Corp

Neal Dingmann; Analyst; Truist Securities

Scott Hanold; Analyst; RBC Capital Markets

Noah Hungness; Analyst; Bank of America

Phillips Johnston; Analyst; Capital One

Oliver Wong; Analyst; TPH

David Deckelbaum; Analyst; TD Cowen

Paul Diamond; Analyst; Citi

Noel Parks; Analyst; Tuohy Brothers Investment Research

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Chord Energy third quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, November 7, 2024.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Bob Bakanauskas, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Bob Bakanauskas

Thank you, Dion, and good morning, everyone. This is Bob Bakanauskas. Today, we're reporting our third-quarter 2024 financial and operational results. We are delighted to have you on the call. I'm joined today by Danny Brown, our CEO; Michael Lou, our Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer; Darrin Henke, our COO; Richard Robuck, our CFO; and other members of the team.
Please be advised that our remarks, including the answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those currently disclosed in our earnings release and conference calls. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings release as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.
During this call, we will make reference to non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and on our website. We may also reference our current investor presentation, which you can find on our website. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Danny Brown.

Daniel Brown

Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call. Over the next few minutes, I plan to provide a brief overview of Chord's third quarter performance and resulting return of capital before turning the discussion to our three-year outlook, which Chord released last night. From there, I'll turn it to Darrin who will comment on our operations, including capital efficiency improvements, which support what we think is a compelling outlook.
Darrin will then pass it to Richard for more details on our financial results before we open it up to Q&A. But before that, I wanted to take a few quick moments and make some comments on recent events in North Dakota. In early October, several wildfires spread in the northwest portion of the state, which tragically led to two fatalities as well as damage to property and equipment. We are very thankful that the Chord team is safe. However, our thoughts and prayers are with the affected communities and citizens as they rebuild.
Chord is also grateful for the leadership shown by both the state and MHA Nation during the fires and for the efforts of our field personnel, which proactively shut in various sites and facilities and coordinated with local authorities. The curtailments to our production were short-lived, and we expect the impact of fourth quarter oil volumes to be about 900 barrels of oil per day, which is reflected in our guidance.
Turning to third quarter results. Chord delivered another great quarter with solid operating results, yielding free cash flow above expectations, which supported robust shareholder returns. Specifically, third quarter oil volumes were toward the top end of guidance, driven by strong execution, well performance and lower downtime. Capital was below expectations, reflecting operational efficiencies, lower-than-expected cost as well as timing adjustments to the program.
Operating expenses also came in below expectations as the team continues to improve operating margins. My thanks to our field, development and execution teams for delivering favorable results really across the board, fantastic job by all. This strong performance led to adjusted free cash flow for the quarter of approximately $312 million, and Chord will be returning 75% of this amount to shareholders. Given our base dividend of $1.25 per share and our normal course of share repurchases in the quarter of $146 million, declared a variable dividend of $0.19 per share.
After the base dividend, share repurchases represented 93% of capital return for the quarter, and we bought back over 1.5% of shares outstanding. Given the compelling valuation we see at our current share price, we expect to continue to lean into buybacks in this environment. Additionally, Chord announced the divestiture of the DJ Basin assets acquired via the Enerplus transaction and expects to use net proceeds to fund acquisition opportunities as well as repurchase shares.
We would expect any repurchases related to the DJ sale to be incremental to the normal course return of capital program. Additionally, last night, we issued fourth quarter and updated full year guidance. Net of the divestiture, we increased full year pro forma oil guidance for the second time this year, despite the impact from the fires, mostly reflecting outperformance in the third quarter. We also trimmed full year capital guidance reflecting improved program efficiencies. We are also trending well on operating expenses and are pleased with the progress we're seeing over the last year or so on this front.
Finally, we lowered gas volumes to reflect our latest estimates for our nonoperated Marcellus production.
Turning to our three-year plan. The Chord team has been working diligently to integrate the Enerplus assets, drive synergy capture and enhance our capital efficiency. We are now far enough along with the integration that we feel confident providing a medium-term outlook for our organization, namely holding oil volumes steady at 152,000 to 153,000 barrels per day from 2025 through 2027 with annual capital expenditures of $1.4 billion per year. Our plan reflects the value the team has created through their focus on strong operational performance, continuous improvement, capturing over $200 million of synergies annually and represents the quality and depth of our inventory.
Importantly, this is our current look, and we see further upside to these plans as we work to continue to extend lateral lengths, including incorporating 4-mile wells and push continuous improvement and cost reduction across all aspects of our business. Our strategic actions, coupled with our fantastic operations team, have created what we believe is a valuable and increasingly rare asset. Chord has a substantial yet low decline and high oil cut production base, which is paired with a deep portfolio of highly economic, lower-risk, conservatively spaced and oil-rich inventory.
We feel great about what we've accomplished and have a lot of confidence in our underlying assumptions and operational performance to deliver our plans. As a reminder, in our presentation, we've included some material focused on helping investors better understand how attractive the Williston Basin is from an investment standpoint. We've added a graph contrasting the major Lower 48 basins in terms of average cumulative oil recovery per well versus time.
This is admittedly simplistic as it ignores other factors such as well cost, but it does highlight how productive Williston wells are versus other basins. We think there is a bit of a misconception out there that the Bakken's cost of supply is materially higher than that of other basins. But if you look at the well data and basin-specific productivity measures, you can clearly see the Williston Basin competes quite favorably with other oily basins.
While our team and assets delivered another oil beat in the third quarter, we have had queries recently from folks trying to better understand early production data that may have led to concerns about us meeting our production guidance. I wanted to use this call as an opportunity to help investors understand trends seen in the state-reported data. First, early time production is inherently volatile and impacted by a myriad of factors. These may include midstream issues, large disposal constraints, downtime related to artificial lift installation, testing or a host of other factors that have nothing to do with the wells' inherent productive capacity and expected ultimate recovery.
Second, there's also a variability across the basin on flowback methodology. In some instances, wells are brought online at high IPs and sharper declines. While other instances, you see wells brought online more gradually, resulting in less early time production but improved longer-term performance. As a reminder, Chord has shifted to drilling more widely spaced and longer laterals on average than others in the basin. While we don't initially flow these wells back as hard as some other operators, we believe our wells benefit from lower declines and higher ultimate recovery over time.
This is demonstrated on slide 8, which shows that Chord's 12-month oil (inaudible) are among the best in the basin, while our three-month are more average performers. Note as well that as we move to longer laterals, we are not moving our initial production rates up and lockstep with the increased lateral length. So as the average lateral length of the program increases, when looking at perfect productivity, production will be divided by a greater denominator and will show lower early time well productivity.
This analysis misses two things: One, we see per foot recovery catching up over time due to the lower decline; and two, well costs for the longer laterals are dramatically lower, meaning the resulting returns are significantly higher as we move to 3-mile wells. Slide 8 adjusts for these factors and shows Chord's lateral length adjusted average 2023 and 2024 well productivity relative to drilling and completions cost. By dividing well productivity per foot by drilling and completions cost per foot, it gives a sense as to the overall capital efficiency of the program.
As you can see, 2024 program starts off a little below 2023, but quickly catches up and ultimately surpasses last year due to a higher concentration of 3-mile wells. To sum it up, the longer lateral program is working and delivering greatly improved capital efficiency and returns. We encourage investors to observe our long-term well data in light of our wider spacing, conservative flowback strategy, inherent variability in near-term data and the nature of longer laterals.
And finally, before I turn it over to Darrin, I want to say that we are committed to delivering affordable and reliable energy and to do so in a sustainable and responsible manner. In the spirit of transparency with our stakeholders, we recently published Chord's 2023 sustainability report. Thank you to the team for putting this together as it does a great job discussing our business and highlighting our efforts on emissions reductions, workforce, health and safety, corporate governance, philanthropy and other topics.
We welcome feedback from our stakeholders on our progress and look forward to building upon our ESG efforts to shape an ever stronger future for Chord and the communities we serve. To summarize, I couldn't be more pleased with the state of the business, and we are in a fabulous position to generate substantial value in the coming years. With that, I'll turn it to Darrin.