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Q1 2025 Wingstop Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Kristen Thomas; Investor Relations; Wingstop Inc

Michael Skipworth; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Wingstop Inc

Alex Kaleida; Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President; Wingstop Inc

Jeffrey Bernstein; Analyst; Barclays

David Tarantino; Analyst; Baird

Danilo Gargiulo; Analyst; Bernstein

Brian Harbour; Analyst; Morgan Stanley

Andrew Charles; Analyst; TD Cowen

Chris O'Cull; Analyst; Stifel

Andy Barish; Analyst; Jefferies

Sara Senatore; Analyst; Bank of America

Christine Cho; Analyst; Goldman Sachs

Presentation

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Wingstop fiscal first-quarter and 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
On the call today are Michael Skipworth, President and Chief Executive Officer; Alex Kaleida, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Kristen Thomas, Senior Manager of Investor Relations. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kristen. Please go ahead

Kristen Thomas

Thank you, and welcome to the fiscal first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call for Wingstop. Our results were published earlier this morning and are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.wingstop.com. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from what we currently expect.
Our SEC filings describe various risks that could affect our future operating results and financial conditions. We use certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. Presentation of such information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are contained in our earnings release. Lastly, for the Q&A session, we ask that you please each keep to one question and a follow-up to allow as many participants as possible to ask a question. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Michael.

Michael Skipworth

Thank you, Kristen, and good morning, everyone. The start to 2025 has been one that has been underscored by uncertainty. Despite increased uncertain across the consumer landscape, our Q1 results showcase the resiliency of the Wingstop brand and the staying power of our long-term strategies.
I want to start by thanking our team members, brand partners, and supplier partners for their tremendous efforts that position us to deliver these strong results while continuing to serve our guests that high-quality indulgent flavor they've come to appreciate with Wingstop. It is moments like this that demonstrate the excitement and enthusiasm for Wingstop's potential.
My comments today will be divided into two parts. First, discussing the current macro environment. And then I want to provide a couple of progress updates on our strategy and the long-term opportunity for Wingstop, which I believe is and will continue to be the best story in the restaurant industry.
As you have seen in the consumer data and have heard from several other companies that have reported, 2025 has proven to present a dramatically different macro operating environment that we experienced in the last couple of years. Consumer sentiment has dropped to its second lowest level since 1952, even surpassing pandemic levels.
While I believe it is impossible to know with certainty, this current macro environment feels similar to consumer pullbacks we have seen before. Indicators we see in our business show pockets where the consumer has an elevated level of concern as they face the macroeconomic uncertainty. That being said, we don't believe what we are seeing is broad-based, but rather concentrated among certain geographies, which suggests to us more of a near-term issue.
During our 21 consecutive years of same-store sales growth, we have navigated similar periods of temporary consumer pullback in years such as 2017, 2020 and 2022. We experienced the consumer navigating a more challenging macro and elevated anxiety levels that created unpredictability with consumer spending.
In a macro environment like today or even in those prior examples, we believe the consumer can show a near-term reaction to reserve cash and reprioritize spending. That being said, we've navigated these situations effectively in our past and as evidenced by the strength of our model, delivering industry-leading returns for our brand partners.
In our first quarter, we are lapping two consecutive years of over 20% same-store sales growth. I'm proud to report that we were able to deliver same-store growth inclusive of transaction growth on these incredibly difficult labs. Our comp of 0.5% includes impacts from the California fires, more severe winter weather events in the Southeast, and the macro backdrop we're now operating in. However, we have not slowed our pace of development, which is on an accelerated pace this year.
We opened a record 126 units in the first quarter. Digital sales increased to 72%, adjusted EBITDA increased 18.4% to $59.5 million. These strong results are a demonstration of the success and staying power of our strategies. Despite the headwinds confronting us and many others, we remain focused on executing on our long-term strategy and the incredible opportunity that is in front of us, scaling AUVs to $3 million and expanding our footprint to over 10,000 restaurants globally.
We will continue to execute our proven strategies which consist of scale and brand awareness, driving menu innovation, expanding our delivery channels, leveraging data-driven marketing and enhancing our digital transformation. It is clear to us the impact our strategies are having on our business.
The underlying fundamentals of our business remains strong. Our guest scores and survey data showcase that brand love is at an all-time high, guests are telling us they want to engage with a trusted brand like Wingstop and one that can reliably deliver quality and value. We're measuring record levels on brand health metrics while the broader restaurant benchmarks show declines.
Operating KPIs at the restaurant level continue to improve. In the month of March, we had our largest single month of guest acquisition on record. We believe the strengthening of our underlying fundamentals position us to emerge from this macro environment in an even stronger position with the consumer.
I mentioned the record-breaking 126 new restaurants we opened in Q1, something that has exceeded our expectations. Restaurant development is a key enabler for building brand awareness. Coupling that with an ad fund that is growing by double-digit percentage this year, we're continuing to have the fuel to invest in meaningful ways to bring awareness to that indulgent Wingstop occasion.
Our partnership with the NBA is proving to be valuable as we see top-tier presence with the -- any game and on broadcast messaging. In fact, Wingstop was the most seen brand during NBA games this season, enabling our strategy to drive brand awareness.
Our creative features our new crispy chicken tenders that was relaunched this past quarter in which guests can get soft and toppedin any 1 of our 12 bold distinctive flavors. Similar to the chicken sandwich, tenders represent a meaningful opportunity and an adjacent demand space for us to access our fair share.
We create excitement around our launch. We opened a pop-up bar in Brooklyn, the first of its kind. That was a bar entirely dedicated to chicken tenders. We called it bartender. The response was impressive with thousands of RSVPs in the first hours and lines wrapped around two city blocks.
Although it is still early, initial observations suggest that the new tender guests exhibit similar characteristics and behaviors to those seen with the launch of our Chicken sandwich where the guests visited the first time as an individual occasion rather than a group. Expect to hear more from us in 2025 to showcase what we believe is the best tender out there.
We've grown to more than 2,600 restaurants and have eclipsed $2 million AUVs with essentially the same simple menu and model from our first restaurant that opened in 1994 in Garland, Texas. Not much has changed in our kitchens to get us to this point, still operating with paper kitchen tickets and limited back-of-house technology integration.
As a brand, we challenged ourselves to finally to leverage technology to drive more consistency and further enhance the quality that we deliver within our indulgent Wingstop occasion. That journey started two years ago. We started with serving tens of thousands of consumers both Wingstop guest and non-Wingstop guests, going deep to understand all restaurant occasions and for each of those occasions, clearly defining what's important to those guests.
We also assess where we best fit in the demand space and how we win more of their consideration set. The punch line is that there is not a fundamental shift needed in our menu or strategies to deliver $3 million AUVs. But yet, we have an opportunity around speed of service and consistency.
Today, as we size up our core demand space, we are only winning 1% share. However, benchmarking other large more mature QSRs, they are winning 20% of their respective demand space. We also clearly understand what consumers expect within the occasion we are targeting. They expect high-quality food, value through a group occasion and an indulgent experience. Wingstop nailed it on all three.
In our last earnings call, we announced our new kitchen operating platform, which we're referring to internally as the Wingstop Smart Kitchen. We believe our new kitchen operating platform can further enhance the value proposition for both new and existing guests.
Our standard quote time is roughly 20 minutes at its best today. And we encounter variability in demand during our busiest hours. We can see quote times reach 45 minutes or higher. And managing guest expectations through an accurate quote time is a manual process today, and we know that this can lead to an inconsistent guest experience. But when we get it right, there is nothing that compares to that first bite experience we can deliver.
Consider this, our AUVs are $2.1 million, and yet we're only gaining 1% of our fair share. There is a significant amount of unmet demand that Wingstop is best positioned to win. Our investments in our proprietary technology, opportunity to build brand awareness, and expanding delivery are key strategies in that journey to capturing more of our fair share.
Just one more visit per guest per quarter translates to a significant step towards our $3 million target. And this is where Wingstop Smart Kitchen enters into the equation.
Over the past two years, while same-store sales grew 40% stacked, we were focused on executing against our long-term strategies and investing to make sure we were well positioned for our next phase of growth. The Wingstop Smart Kitchen is the interplay of software and hardware. This is a technology solution we codeveloped with the start-up that has built for Wingstop, customized for our menu, our guests, and our team members.
Through the deployment of this new kitchen operating platform, we have seen consistent order times that are half of our standard quote time, and we believe unlock new dayparts and increased order consistency. The solution set includes three elements: an AI-driven demand forecasting technology, a gamified highly visual kitchen display system, and a customer-facing status tracking order ready screen.
This platform has a demand forecast that is integrated into kitchen operating system, providing role clarity and efficiency for team members improving accuracy and in turn, helping to deliver a 10-minute average ticket time. Not only is this over a 50% reduction in ticket times, it's also delivering a consistent guest experience and improving product quality.
We have made great progress in our rollout. At the end of Q1, we have deployed the Wingstop Smart Kitchen in over 200 restaurants. We are pleased with the early results we've seen, including improvements in overall satisfaction and cutting quote times in half.
Sales for these restaurants versus control restaurants are outperforming. We are targeting to have the rollout complete by year end. This is truly a game changer for our guests. It's a game changer for our team members. And it's a transformation in our restaurants that we believe will be a catalyst on our path to $3 million AUVs. Over the years, we have demonstrated our ability to innovate and maintain discipline around investments that we believe drive the business for the long term.
In 2023, we made investments into our database to enrich and build robust guest profiles. This led to our Wing ID platform, unlocking first-party data capture at scale and laid the foundation personalized experiences across channels. In 2024, MyWingstop was the next step to enable this personalization through a seamless and best-in-class digital ordering experience. Wing ID is allowing us to execute hyper personalization strategies designed to create loyalty-like behaviors with our guests.
Since we launched MyWingstop, we've been mining for insights and learning which strategies are proving to be most effective. But we aren't stopping there. With our aspirational goal of digitizing every transaction, we are focused on elevating the end-to-end guest experience, and that next natural evolution for us will be a loyalty program.
With the database that has scaled to over 50 million users as well as our new Wingstop Smart Kitchen innovation, we believe that timing is now right for us. We have an opportunity to drive frequency and retention by rewarding repeat behavior and tap into that emotional connection our guests have with our brand.
Supercharge by Wing ID, our loyalty program will drive a one-to-one experience and unique access to the brand. We believe our loyalty program will be distinctive in the industry because we're not taking the typical transactional approach within our design.
The level of insights we have with our guests today plays a big role in informing the executional elements of a loyalty program. We are excited to share more about our loyalty program in the coming quarters and intend to pilot the program in the fourth quarter of this year and for a system-wide launch in 2026.
It's investments such as the ones we've made in our digital technology platform that allow us to maintain our industry-leading unlevered cash-on-cash returns of 70% our brand partners enjoy. Essential to a successful franchise system is the unit economics, and we believe we have the best in the industry.
Our supply chain strategy continues to provide a level of predictability into food costs that we have not seen in the past.
Coupling food cost predictability with our average unit volumes of more than $2.1 million, our brand partners are seeing cash flows at record levels. And in turn, they are investing behind their infrastructure and operations to scale their businesses alongside this growth.
The biggest testament to the strength of our unit economics, especially in this current macro environment is our brand partners' demand for growth. Average new restaurant volumes are on pace to exceed $1.8 million in the latest vintage, which compares to $1.2 million just three years ago. We opened a record 126 net new restaurants in Q1 and updated our guidance to 16% to 17% unit growth in 2025. This implies net new units of between 410 to 435 globally.
As we mentioned last quarter, our global development agreement pipeline had over 2,000 restaurant commitments at the start of the year. This demand for growth continues to build and extends beyond our domestic business. The demand is just as strong in our international business, which also delivered strong Q1 results.
We opened a new market in a marquee flagship location in Kuwait, which in its first week open, broke the record for highest global weekly sales. Not only are we opening more restaurants we're opening stronger than ever, and there's incredible levels of pent-up demand across the globe. Take our Puerto Rico market, for example, we opened our first restaurant in that market one year ago and already have nine restaurants opened with sales pacing ahead of the US average.
Next on the horizon is the launch of our Australian market, with the first restaurant opening in Q2. We have a proven operator who is set on opening over 100 restaurants in Australia with the potential for many more on our journey to opening over 10,000 restaurants across the globe.
We now anticipate opening as many as five new markets in 2025. Within the context of this more challenging macro-operating environment, I firmly believe that 2025 will be another proof point for the resiliency of our model and will continue to deliver industry-leading returns for our brand partners and shareholders.
We will remain disciplined on the investments that fuel this growth over the long term. and are confident in our strategies we are executing to scale Wingstop into a top 10 global restaurant brand. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Alex.