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James Peters

Thanks, Marc. Good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 8, I'll review the first quarter results for our MDA North America business.
Net sales were flat year over year as we experienced a continued challenging macro environment in the US. Consumer confidence declined sharply throughout the first quarter as a result of economic uncertainty from anticipated tariffs. In addition, consistent with the fourth quarter, we saw inventory loading of Asian imports by foreign competitors into the US industry ahead of tariffs.
Despite these challenges, MDA North America delivered an EBIT margin of 6.2%, driven by pricing actions and cost takeout. As a reminder, we expect to turn over more than 30% of our product portfolio in MDA North America this year, our largest transition in over a decade.
We have already seen a very positive trade response to the new product innovations we are launching in 2025. I will share more about these exciting new product launches shortly. We are confident that our actions position us well to achieve continued margin expansion as our industry environment stabilizes following the finalization of new trade policies.
Turning to slide 9. I'll review the results for our MDA Latin America business. In the first quarter, MDA Latin America had net sales growth of 2% year over year, excluding currency, driven by successfully implemented pricing actions.
The segment delivered a solid EBIT margin of 6.6% in the quarter. Excluding an operational tax benefit of approximately 200 basis points in the prior year, EBIT margin expanded approximately 80 basis points year over year driven by favorable price mix.
Turning to slide 10. I'll review the strong results for our MDA Asia business. In the first quarter, MDA Asia realized net sales growth of 16% year over year, excluding currency, driven by strong volumes from share gains and industry growth.
The segment delivered a 7% EBIT margin in the quarter with 240 basis points year over year of margin expansion from cost takeout and fixed cost leverage. Overall, we are very pleased with the first quarter results delivered by the MDA Asia team.
Turning to slide 11, I'll review the results of our SDA Global business. The segment achieved significant net sales growth of 10% year over year, excluding currency, with strong direct-to-consumer sales in the quarter.
We continue to see momentum from our recent product launches in high-growth potential categories, such as our semi- and fully automatic espresso machines. Overall, the segment delivered a very strong EBIT margin of 18.5% in the quarter, driven by favorable price/mix.
As a reminder, the first quarter accounts for less than 20% of their annual revenues and EBIT margin can be heavily impacted by the timing of marketing spend. We expect the first half EBIT margin to be in line with full year guidance.
Now I'll turn the call over to Marc to provide an overview of the tariff landscape and our mitigating actions.

Marc Bitzer

Thanks, Jim. Turning to slide 13, we have provided an overview of the current tariff landscape of US imports.
While we want to ensure we give you context for how tariffs impact our business, I need to highlight that the trade landscape is very fluid and additional trade policy actions could result in materially different outcomes. In the table below, you can see a summary of relevant existing tariffs before 2025 and the newly announced tariffs in 2025.
Both Section 232 and 301 were originally implemented in 2018 with various modifications and exclusions added, particularly over the past few years. More recently, in 2025, Section 232 exclusions were removed and additional changes were implemented under the Canada/Mexico and reciprocal IEEPA.
The IEEPA tariffs have notably increased the tariff impact from China goods brought into the US as well as implemented broad US import reciprocal tariff of 10% across most countries.
Turning to slide 14, we'll discuss how the evolution of a trade landscape has impacted Whirlpool as a major domestic producer. Pre-existing loopholes in the Section 232 and 301 tariffs have, in the past, created a disadvantage for us as a domestic producer. It is important to note that these unfair cost disadvantages are not new to us, and they were fully reflected in our baseline.
Put it differently, we have been performing reasonably well despite these unfair disadvantages. The new trade policies are finally putting an end to these disadvantages and will level the playing field. Let me first explain what created the existing loopholes for Asian producers.
With 232 and 301 tariffs in place, we, as a domestic producer, buy US-made steel which is two to three times more expensive than Chinese steel. In addition, we have to pay tariffs on Chinese-made components for which we do not have a US supply base. Asian producers, on the other hand, are using cheap Chinese steel and components and do not have to pay a tariff when they bring their finished products into the US.
As you will see later, this amounts an approximately $70 per unit disadvantage for our business. In addition, some Asian producers have circumvented existing Section 301 tariffs by setting up assembly operations in Asian countries outside China. Let me reiterate that while we have faced these negative impact since 2020, we have been able to manage the impact to our business through pricing and cost takeout.
What happened over the last two quarters, to some extent, amplified the negative impacts from the past. Following the US presidential election and the threat of additional tariffs, Asian producers have increased imports by over 30% year over year in the fourth quarter and February year to date this year, essentially loading the US industry. In addition, some retaliatory tariffs have begun to negatively impact our business.
Looking forward, some of these negative effects continue to impact our business, but more importantly, the current administration's trade policies will structurally benefit domestic producers. We expect the new reciprocal tariffs to level the playing field for US appliance manufacturers and additional US trade policy actions will close loopholes and eliminate disadvantages we currently face.
On slide 15, I will review an illustrative example to provide details on the existing disadvantage to U.S,-made products. This example demonstrates how an identical product is faced with very different component costs depending on where it is being produced. It is important to note that steel is the most critical component in the any appliance.
Typically, steel amounts to about half weight of an appliance, or, in the case of a washer, adds up to 100 pounds of steel. So when we produce a washing machine in the US we use domestic steel, which is about two to three times more expensive than Chinese steel, which is used all over Asia. When the Asian producer imports the same washer into the US, we do not have to pay any tariff on steel. The same is true for components like LED panels for certain motors, which we cannot procure domestically.
While we have to pay a tariff on risk components, any Asian producer using the same components in their production will not have to pay tariffs. Putting both of these loopholes together, this has, in the past, led to an approximately $70 per unit disadvantage for domestically produced appliances compared to identical products manufactured in Asia and imported into US.
Typically, a $70 product cost disadvantage after adding some additional overhead costs and trade margins will lead to $150 retail price difference. Needless to say that this unfair disadvantage in the past put pressure on our market share and production volumes in our US factories. While we have been operating successfully in the past despite this unfair disadvantage, this example illustrates how much potential of US business has if these loopholes are finally closed.
Turning to slide 16, let me review the tariff mitigation actions we have underway. First, we have taken steps to address the current environment for previously announced pricing actions. In addition, we announced a combination of list price and promotional price increases in order to cope with a higher component costs. We are also taking additional cost actions to mitigate input cost increases.
Secondly, we're evaluating our supply base and manufacturing footprint, and are reducing our Asian exposure. This is limited as we have by far the largest US-based footprint, with 80% of what we sell in the US produced in the US; compared to the industry average, excluding Whirlpool, which is only approximately 25% US produced.
Thirdly, we are proactively monitoring the evolving landscape and continue to provide insights to policymakers on tariff exemptions for circumventions that risk US manufacturing.
With today's review of how the different tariffs impact our business, we provide much more detail than we typically would do. However, we felt it is important to highlight what I mentioned upfront. No matter how you look at the new tariff landscape, Whirlpool, with its strong US production base, is a net winner more than anyone else in our industry.
And now I'll turn it over to Jim to review our unchanged 2025 guidance and capital allocation priorities.

James Peters

Thanks, Marc. Turning to slide 18. I will review our guidance for 2025. As Marc highlighted, there is notable uncertainty in the overall macro environment. However, we are confident in our ability to manage what is within our control and deliver our 2025 guidance, which is unchanged.
As a reminder, we have provided a reset baseline for 2024 results, excluding both the European major domestic appliance business from Q1 2024 and India's July through December 2024 consolidated results from the anticipated Whirlpool of India transaction.
The reset baseline excludes approximately -- in net sales and an approximately $6 million reduction in EBIT, creating a like-for-like comparison for 2025 guidance. On a like-for-like basis, 2024 net sales were approximately $15.four billion with an ongoing EBIT margin of approximately 5.8%. We expect organic growth of approximately 3% to $15.8 billion in net sales in 2025, driven by our strong pipeline of new products.
On a like-for-like basis, we expect a 100 basis point ongoing EBIT margin expansion and margins to be approximately 6.8%. Free cash flow is expected to deliver $500 million to $600 million. As a reminder, the adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be 20% to 25%, which is an increase compared to 2024 and impacts 2025 ongoing earnings per share by approximately $7. We expect full year ongoing earnings per share of approximately $10.
Turning to slide 19, you will see our overall margin guidance is unchanged. However, we have included a separate summary of the tariff impacts that we expect to fully mitigate.
We expect approximately 250 basis points impact from the incremental tariff changes, net of immediate mitigation actions. It is important to note these impacts represent currently announced tariffs and do not factor in any future or potential changes in trade policy. We expect to offset these impacts through the cost-based pricing actions announced in April and by continuing to implement supply sourcing changes summarized previously.
Turning to slide 20, I will review our unchanged capital allocation priorities. Funding our organic growth is critical to delivering innovative products that meet our consumers' needs. We are very excited about the new products we are launching this year.
Secondly, we are committed to reducing debt levels. We expect to pay down $700 million of debt in 2025, taking a significant step toward our 2 times net debt leverage target. Lastly, we are committed to returning cash to shareholders by funding a healthy dividend. This year marks the 70th year of steady or increasing dividends.
We are confident our business is well positioned for continued growth and margin expansion in the second half, supported by our exciting new products. As Marc mentioned, we are also confident that, in the new tariff landscape, Whirlpool will be a net winner. As a reminder, the dividend is approved quarterly by the Board of Directors.
Turning to slide 21. We have clear actions to address the upcoming debt maturities. $1.85 billion of debt is maturing this year, of which $350 million is a senior note due in May and $1.5 billion is the remaining term loan from the InSinkErator acquisition due in October.
We expect to refinance the remaining $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion,after the meaningful debt repayment of approximately $700 million expected in 2025. The cash generation from the anticipated India transaction, which has generated significant interest from large third-party investors is expected in the second half of 2025.
On slide 22, you will see we have ample space in our flexible debt ladder to optimize our refinancing plans. Over 30% of our debt matures beyond 2030, with many open windows that provide optionality for our debt maturities. Our targeted refinancing will be both a five-year and 10-year maturity time frame, which lines up well with our debt ladder openings.
On slide 23, let me review how we are well positioned for growth from our new product launches. Our organic growth of approximately 3% this year will be fueled by our new products. As previously mentioned, we have a very strong lineup of launches this year, with MDA North America transitioning over 30% of its products.
A few highlights of our products launching this quarter include the KitchenAid Induction Cooktop. This cooktop is created to empower users with a sleek, frameless design, featuring an innovative WipeClean coating that is easy to clean and convenient TempCook preset for precise and consistent cooking.
Our new JennAir built-in wall oven features a vertical dual-convection fan to distribute heat evenly and fast throughout the cavity for perfect results. A simplified graphic interface puts a digital sous chef in your kitchen, that takes you from prep to plate, with an intuitive cooking experience.
In Latin America, our new Brastemp freestanding range is integrated with our Airfryer Pro for unmatched versatility. Also offering advanced features like a smart timer and auto shutdown for safety and peace of mind.
Finally, our new KitchenAid blender offers powerful blades and variable speeds, which allow for precise control over texture and consistency to make a wide range of meals. The versatile jar takes on hot and cold ingredients to effortlessly transform more.
The lid features a heat release vent for splatter prevention and can blend a variety of food types for drinks, sauces, soups and batters. All of this in a beautiful design and with the durability the KitchenAid brand is known for.
These products are just a few examples of how we continue to bring new innovative products to our consumers' homes. To further highlight the excitement around our new products, slide 24 showcases a few snapshots from our recent booth at the Kitchen and Bath Industry Show, also known as KBIS.
KBIS is North America's largest trade show dedicated to all aspects of kitchen and bath design. At the show, we created a significant amount of excitement from designers, trade customers, media and consumers.
Our booth was meticulously crafted for each of our unique brands, Whirlpool, Maytag, KitchenAid and JennAir. Our successful booth showcased our commitment to innovations that improve life at home for our consumers.
As you will see on slide 25, we won an impressive seven awards at KBIS. The upcoming KitchenAid launch, which is the first full product redesign in a decade, made a notable splash at the show.
We introduced curated relevant colors and finishes designed for personalization. We demonstrated the customizable possibilities, enabling you to choose knob and handle combinations that suit your style.
We also introduced new, innovative features such as an intelligent auto-fill in our refrigerators, giving you the ultimate hands-free set it and forget it experience filling your water. The oven also features a built-in camera that lets you stay one step ahead of your cooking at all times, all of which received impressive feedback.
The innovative downdraft induction cooktops from JennAir demonstrated powerful and effective satisfaction. The downdraft system draws vapors downward faster than cooking vapors rise, preventing steam, grease and odors from spreading in the kitchen.
It also provides unobstructed views, leaving your kitchen space available for indefinite open concept design opportunities. This product won multiple awards and made a lasting impression.
Turning to slide 26, let me review what you heard today. I'm proud of what the team has accomplished in this volatile and uncertain macro environment, remaining agile and focused on our operational priorities. We achieved organic growth and margin expansion in the first quarter despite what has been an unfavorable environment.
As you heard from Marc earlier in the call, we have been faced with a cost disadvantage in North America for our predominantly US-based production for some time. While we recognize trade policies continue to evolve, we believe they will eliminate this unfair disadvantage in support of American manufacturing. We remain well positioned to capitalize on the eventual housing market recovery in the US.
North America is poised for success through our exciting strong pipeline of new products while implementing measures to mitigate tariff impacts. Our Asia business continues to be a bright spot, delivering strong top line growth and substantial margin expansion.
Our Latin America business continues to deliver, with successfully implemented pricing actions to address unfavorable currency headwinds. And we expect our global SDA business to continue to accelerate growth from new products and deliver strong EBIT margins.
As a result, we are reiterating our full year guidance. As I mentioned, our capital allocation strategy remains clear, with a focus on organic growth, debt reduction and paying our strong dividend in 2025. Overall, I am confident that we have the right operational priorities in place to deliver on our goals, while monitoring the evolving macro environment and positioning our business for success.
Now we will end our formal remarks and open it up for questions.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Laura Champine, Loop Capital.

Laura Champine

And I appreciate the granularity in your presentation about the impact of tariffs. If tariffs currently fall from -- or fall from their current stated rate in China, which I think adds up to 145%, down to, let's call it, 10% or 20%, how much would that potentially impact your outlook?

Marc Bitzer

Yes. So Laura, it's Marc. So obviously, we all are probably -- knowledge, right now speculating about what happens in China is pure speculation. I mean it's -- I think we would all agree, maybe 145% not happen. I can't imagine the administration goes all the way back to basically no tariffs of China or very little. So probably going to be somewhere in between.
But the reality -- or maybe to answer it slightly different, even a 20% changes commercial behaviors, and we see that already happening in the marketplace. But 20%, frankly, will not move factories. So if the stated intention of the administration is to move factories, they know it all, the administration is well aware of, it needs more than 20% to really start moving factories.
Now moving beyond this one, as you also know, it's not just China. We're talking about basically Southeast Asia, which all benefit from cheap Chinese deals. Also here, it's -- I think the government and the administration knows very well you can't close the front door in and leave the entire back to open. And I think the odds that all tariffs basically go back to pre Rose Garden ceremonies, I would consider very low.

Laura Champine

Got it. And you called out in the press release impacts from Asian competitors preshipping appliances to try to get ahead of tariffs. Is the impact on your business from that cooked? Or will we continue to see an impact in Q2 and Q3?

Marc Bitzer

So Laura, just to put it in perspective, we all know Q4 and Q1, the industry -- the US industry was approximately flat. The imports from Asian producer, again, not just China, all Asian producers, in Q4 was up 30%; and January, February, also at the same level, up 30%. We don't yet have a March data.
So obviously, that certainly means any definition of preloading into the marketplace. And I would say, obviously, with any pauses, that preloading will continue, even I would say it's been a larger range.
So right now, we assume there's a fairly sizable amount of inventory in the country, maybe not all the trade. And of course, that brings some market disruption. Maybe not entirely surprising. We managed for that in Q1, and we right now expect similar market dynamics in Q2. But as we demonstrated in Q1, I think we can manage it.
It's not easy, but we can manage it. But again, the more important thing is, once the tariffs fully kick in and -- I think you will see quite a bit of a change in the market dynamics.

Operator

Sam Darkatsh, Raymond James.

Sam Darkatsh

A couple of questions here. First off, you noted that you're going to be looking to get some additional price in April. Can you help quantify that and maybe put a little bit of color on that in terms of how much of that is going to be specific to microwave ovens versus the broad line?

Marc Bitzer

Sam, it's Marc. So as you highlighted, we had an April another price increase. Again, that comes on top of a number of price increases over the last 12 months. Basically, what we communicated, the price increase are largely referring to the component cost impact, which we experienced and which we passed on.
There's -- we're not going to give out the details about product group by product group, but it's largely meant to cover the component cost impact, I think, on microwaves, et cetera, where we may also have some supply chain solutions over time.
So let's see how that all plays out. But put it all together, because again, you have now multiple actions on pricing which impact promotional depth, which impacts, what we call the MAP, the minimum advertised prices, in some cases, list prices.
Put a better altogether, I think that gives us not only confidence on the 0.75% price, which we have right now in the margin year over year. But you also know that we have it in the tariff offset action, about two points, a big part of that is pricing. So put that both together, I think you will see a full year perspective which is, on a pure pricing side, well north of one, probably getting closer to two points up.

Sam Darkatsh

And then my second question, if I could. You noted last quarter sell-through was healthy. I think sell-through in the first quarter, you've been indicating that it's been similarly improved. How much, based on your market intelligence, are you seeing with respect to -- I'm sorry, consumer pull forward, not necessarily from retailers trying to beat tariffs, but consumers perhaps accelerating their purchase decision ahead of tariffs?

Marc Bitzer

Yes, Sam, let me maybe split it in two pieces of answers. First of all, that's completely back in office. As you very well know, we have -- I mean, our demand is roughly replacement. And right now, pure replacement probably in Q1 went up to 65%. We don't have final data. So it's a very, very significant portion of the market.
Now it's good because it's strong. It gives you a good baseload. Where we felt softness in particular as the quarter progressed was on the discretionary side of demand. That is, also here, not surprising because that's newly tied to consumer confidence. And as we all have seen consumer confidence was taking a significant hit coming February, March.
So the discretionary side of the demand is weak, has been weak, as we all know for the last two years, and exit rate of consumer confidence and discretionary demand end of Q1 was soft. Similar things probably will happen in Q2. So we're not -- that's why we said early market demands main remain the same.
In terms of a specific question about consumer preloading, frankly, I know there have been some retail advertising along these lines, I would say it's fairly limited. It's fairly limited. We may see something coming closer towards late June, if the real magnitude of tariffs kick in. But so far, it's been somewhat limited.

Operator

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

Michael Rehaut

Appreciate all the detail on the tariffs. But I wanted to delve in a little bit more and just make sure we're thinking about it correctly. Going to slide 15, where you break out the differences in your cost versus your Asian competitors.
Is the upshot of this slide that, due to the tariffs, essentially your competitors would be paying that additional $70 that you're currently paying? Or I would have thought perhaps that given the greater amounts of overseas production, on top of maybe just steel, there'd be a significantly higher tariff headwind for those Asian producers?
So I was wondering if you could go into that a little bit. And certainly, you've done an extensive analysis on your top competitors. And of course, I'm thinking of your two major South Korean Asian competitors. If you could walk through, perhaps, when you think about the US product that they sell, what percent is produced overseas?
And why wouldn't we be thinking of a much higher tariff per unit per se than the $70 that, right now, you estimate you're at a disadvantage at?

Marc Bitzer

So Mike, obviously, that question probably deserves a little bit long answer. First of all, one upfront, I clarify also, we -- this time, we spent an unusual amount explaining the details of the tariffs and all impact, don't expect that going forward. We should also talk about our business results. But anyhow, so we just felt it's appropriate given that it's a lot of discussion.
First of all, the lay of the land in terms of production. We produce 80% of what we sell in the US. Of what we produce in the US, the vast majority is done with domestic components. So 98% of steel, which we source in the US, the same is true. So we are, by any definition, a US producer for the US market.
The rest of the industry, if you take Whirlpool out of equation, is only about 25% domestic production. And we're not going to lay it out, of course, we assume that we have, for every competitor, a very detailed understanding where we produce. But it's the rest of the industry is basically -- to simplify, the rest of the industry is imported largely and we are a local producer. That's the simple lay of land.
Now to that chart, and again I want to reemphasize, that is a pre-existing tariff loophole. We've been -- of course, we knew about this for a long time. It's basically sitting in our baseline largely in --, a good pressure on our market share because we couldn't fill our factories.
But it's a structural disadvantage which comes from steel. And again, I want to reemphasize, half of our product weight is steel. It's massive. On some products and dishwashers, even more so.
Of course, if we can't buy cheap Chinese steel and everybody else can, that makes a big difference. If we have to pay it on component costs like LED panels, which we can't source in US, et cetera, if we have tariffs. And the other guys don't have to pay tariffs, it makes it different. So it's massive.
So again, it's a pre-existing loopholes. The new administration has already taken some steps in trying to close that. And I think the administration is well aware of our concerns. And --, I give them a lot of credit for that. I think there are multiple tools that the administration has at their hands to close that loophole. The reciprocal tariffs might be one, but that could be also 2. So let's see what's happening.
But of course, I think we just want to show -- that we're not asking for subsidies, gifts or handouts, we're just asking the loopholes are being closed. And I think there is -- I think we have a high degree of confidence that the new administration will close these loopholes.

James Peters

Yes. And Mike, just to say, and you asked why would the impact not necessarily be higher or whatever, I think as Marc said, depending on what the go-forward tariff structure is, it could close this gap and then some. But again, we don't have a definitive answer on that. But what we're highlighting is that we do expect that, at a minimum, this gap will be closed.
And then what comes on top of that, depending on how the tariffs are structured and all that, could create more incentive to produce in the US and give us an opportunity to, again, as Marc said, increase the volumes within our factories.

Michael Rehaut

Right. Right. No, I appreciate that. I guess second question, just looking at that 250 tariff cost headwind that you expect to offset this year through price and cost. Would it be possible to break down roughly what you expect to do from price versus cost?
I think you said, Marc, if I head you right, maybe another 100 to 200 basis points all in. That's a bit of a wide range. But any type of breakdown there?
And also, if the tariff headwinds maybe aren't coming in maybe from a timing perspective until July, you have the price increase effective in April, I'm just wondering if there might be an additional tailwind from a timing perspective, if I'm thinking about that right.

Marc Bitzer

So Michael, and again, you're referring to is page 19, where we show the tariff impact, 2.5 points, and the actions also 2.5 points. First of all -- and I appreciate many of you already want to see more detail behind how it's coming together.
The first one I want to clarify, the negative side of tariff impact is building already. So it's not like versus July and all of a sudden, you see it. Because, of course, we see already a change in the 232 that's already impacting us.
The base tariffs were 10%, with 20% there already impacting us. So the impact is already there. But of course, it's going to be, based on today's assumption, significantly higher in the back side or back half of the year.
The other factor which you need to take into account, and that's why we don't want to get in too much detail, of course, we also made sure we have component inventories at our hands. And I think you will appreciate that we can't get into detail how much component we have on each one. So we took certain measures also to buffer the impact to some extent. So that's why it's a mixed picture here.
On the actions, and more your new question on the pricing side, and you need to take two things together. One is the 0.75 points of pricing which we already have in our plans. And of the additional actions, I would say, probably more than half or almost two-thirds of that will come from pricing. But there are additional cost actions and there is additional actions which we do in terms of rewiring the supply chain, which will help us.
I also want to reemphasize what I said in my prepared remarks, is the rewiring of supply chain for us is limited. By definition, we are a US producer, only 5% of what we sell in US is sourced in China. Now we have components, so there's still some rewiring. But compared to anybody else, in our case, it's a very limited amount.

James Peters

And I think the other thing, Mike, to your question on a tailwind from pricing in the second quarter. Again, as we implement all this in April here, you have to think about some of the offset. As we talked about earlier, that there has been some product loaded into the market by Asian competitors that will be making its way through. So that's a bit of a headwind.
Additionally, just think about how the promotional periods play out throughout the year. And you'll see in a Memorial Day type of begin to see this. But really Fourth of July and the back half of the year is where we begin to see a lot more benefits from some of these type of promotional price increases. So that's why we think the bigger benefit does come in the back half of the year on this.

Operator

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

Susan Maklari

Hearing on that conversation, I guess when you do think about the benefits of the pricing coming through in the back half and these cost actions and other steps that you're taking, can you walk us through a bit how you're thinking of the North America MDA margins as we think about the sequential moves over the next couple of quarters in there? Maybe something around first half, second half, anything of that nature?

James Peters

Yes, Sue, this is Jim. As we said, for North America in the second quarter is probably relatively similar to the first quarter. So it does imply a build in the second half of the year. And I think you have to think about it this way, and it's going to be about a 200 to 250 basis point build in the back half of the year. First off, we believe price/mix will be positive.
It could be 100 basis points plus positive. Part of that, as we just mentioned, with the promotional price increases we've taken, the portion that's not offsetting some of the headwinds or other things we see and the previously announced ones, will benefit us to. We've got new products launching in the back half of the year which will give us a mix benefit. Because you think about it, it's a lot of KitchenAid product that we'll be launching in the back half of the year.
Nexr, net cost. We see probably about 75 basis points in net cost that will come as we go towards the back half of the year. Just with current cost actions we put in place as well as some of the additional cost actions we identified at the back or at the beginning of the year. Also, we should get some volume leverage in the back half of the year that will come.
And then probably the last piece there is just from a volume perspective, as some of this product that's been loaded into the marketplace works its way through. And we see the opportunity as a large domestic producer to hopefully increase some of our market share, drive some of our market share, that should give us about another 50 -- 75, 50 basis points there. So again, that's the build of how I would see this ramping up throughout the back half of the year.

Susan Maklari

Okay. That's helpful. And then turning to the SDA business that saw some really nice momentum to start 2025. Can you talk about the path there for the balance of the year? And how we should be thinking about bridging the nice margin performance this quarter relative to the annual guide that I think you reiterated in your comments?

Marc Bitzer

Yes. So Susan, I mean, obviously, we've been very pleased with a very strong first quarter for SDA. That strong quarter came on the back of really the product innovations, which we talked last year about. It's a coffee maker. It's the rice grain cooker.
It's the battery part of the wireless appliances. So there's a lot of good products. But, and that's very important, we also had on our spend mix of business, the right above 1% of the business, a very strong Q1. So we feel very good. But I think the only caveat, I would say, is the seasonality of the SDA business is different than the MDA business.
So Q1, by definition, is a small quarter. But frankly, yes, it makes us feel good that we exit this smaller quarter on a very, very strong performance level, even while we continued heavy marketing investments in the SDA business. So I would say, at this point, we're very confident about the full year guidance on the SDA business, and Q1 certainly gives us increased confidence towards the guidance.

Operator

David MacGregor, Longbow Research.

David MacGregor

I just wanted to thank you again for all the details around the tariffs. As I understand that most of the import -- pending imported product is positioned in the mass premium segment of the market. I guess the question is, what percentage of your US unit volume overlaps with tariff-impacted imports?

Marc Bitzer

Yes, David, it's Marc. So again, it's -- I wouldn't just say it's mass premium. I think that will be a misdirection. There are mass premium elements of imports coming, yes, from Thailand or Korea. But keep in mind, there is a not a small private label business and, what we call OPP, opening price point business, which particularly comes from China but also from other markets.
So it plays across all spectrums. Key balls in mind, in particular, if you have some very aggressive opening price points coming from private label, which came with all the advantaged opportunity as we talked about, that puts pressure on entire product line.
So if you have a private label topload, which is all of a sudden sold at 3 49, that puts an entire line down. So I would argue, the Asian imports, producer imports impact pretty much the entire product line. Maybe with a small exception for super premium, like on the JennAir. But other than that, it impacts the entire range.

David MacGregor

Interesting. Second question, I just wanted to go back to SG&A. You talked about the strength of the direct-to-consumer business, which is an interesting model. Can you talk about the development there? And how we should think about how that grows as a percentage of that business going forward? And also, I guess, to the extent that you see direct-to-consumer impacting the major line -- the major appliance line?

Marc Bitzer

Yes, David. I mean, first of all, I got to acknowledge, I mean, the SDA business is probably more geared towards an online purchase than the MDA business. On the MDA business, it's just -- because of the size of product, the fact that you have to install it, it's just a -- of course, you can also sell it online and we see that quite a bit. But the SDA is a little bit easy. It's easy to ship.
There's no installation. And frankly, take a stand mixer, I mean, most people don't need to kick the tires on them. So we know it's a fantastic product. I probably already have it at home. So I think that's why the predisposition of these two businesses is slightly different.
Having said that, our SDA business has been -- over the past couple of years, have been on a really impressive journey of driving basically overall now a quarter of the business is direct-to-consumer business. So it's a very good business for us.
As you also know, the way we look at this direct-consumer business, it's not just the first sale, it's a second sale because it drives follow-on business. It drives customer loyalty. It gives us opportunity to stay in touch with our consumers. So it is an attractive business, and the team has done a fantastic job in growing that.
While recognizing there is always going to be a role for traditional retail. So we're not trying to replace it, we're trying to augment it. Because there are some consumers, yes, who want to be -- interaction, in touch with the producer.

Operator

Mike Dahl, RBC.

Mike Dahl

Jim, I just want to follow up again on the North American dynamic, just so we're sure we're clear. When you say 2Q is going to be similar, do you mean both from a top line and a margin standpoint, i.e., like flattish sales and a low 6s margin?
And then stepping up, I guess that implies stepping up to like high eight on margin in the back half of the year, which would be up quite a bit. Is that the right way to think about how you're framing those comments?

James Peters

Yes, it is. I mean, again, as we said we really see with what's going on in the marketplace right now and the movement of product that's been loaded in. We see a Q2 that's going to be similar, and we don't give exact margin guidance, but similar to what Q1 was. And then the build that I did really implies a movement from around 6.25% to close to 8.5% to 8.75%.
Now again, as we said, we think some of the margin right now is just artificially suppressed the amount of product that's been loaded into the marketplace. But again, I want to reemphasize, we believe our cost actions, the pricing we've taken and then the volume opportunities that we continue to see and build add up to a pretty significant improvement as you go to the back half of the year.

Marc Bitzer

Michael, it's Marc. Just I want to reiterate what Jim was saying. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, the tariffs will, in particular, help our North America business. But I want to reemphasize, the products which we're introducing and which we've just shown as KBIS are just outstanding. Honestly, in my 26 years, I've rarely seen such a positive response to new products, as I've seen it KBIS.
So we feel -- I really want to be clear is, yes, tariff is one thing, but tariff plus new products or particularly new products really points to an exciting future for North America business.

Mike Dahl

Yes. And Marc, I hear you on that and the stuff we saw at KBIS. I think the bigger picture question or concern I have is as we think about the incremental over the past couple of months, you're acknowledging that there's been a big shift in the consumer landscape. There's still some lingering effects from the import demand or the import preload. I understand your point of view on the relative benefits that can come your way over time from some of these shifts.
But with those near-term pressures and some uncertainty, some cost headwinds that are incremental that you do have to offset, I guess, in particular, on the demand side, why hold the guide? Like it seems like that's -- it doesn't seem like that's leaving yourselves much room in a pretty uncertain environment?

Marc Bitzer

Marc Yes. So Michael, first of all -- and I also am reiterating what Jim was saying, we're not counting on a massive improvement of consumer behavior or consumer landscape. We guided earlier, in particular, in North America, essentially pretty much for a flat market environment. Maybe that's now flat to maybe low single digits down, because consumer confidence is down and as such for discretionary demand is not strong. So we're not counting on a dramatic improvement market environment.
But what we are counting on is on the things which we are in our control, the cost takeout, the pricing actions which were taken and the new product introduction. That's what we're counting on. And frankly, we all know it's why we quantified the impact of our tariff headwinds, I think with tariff tailwinds, depending now how this all comes together, could be significant. So you take both things into equation, I tell you right now, we have confidence in the full year guidance, and that's why we kept the guidance.

James Peters

I think you have to think about it that over the last 12 months, we've taken multiple promotional price increases we've talked about. We've put in place numerous significant cost actions that we continue to put in place and build upon.
And then we're in an environment right now where, as we said, we don't assume overall demand improves, but what you're seeing is an influx of Asian-produced product into the marketplace that's at least displacing a certain amount of our product.
That has to flush out. Listen, it's not indefinite. And at some point that begins to slow down. And so that's what we assume or -- that is that by the back half of the year, we're back to a more normalized environment there. And we think with all the actions we've taken that Marc talked about positions us well for the back half of this year.

Operator

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

Rafe Jadrosich

And I appreciate all the color on tariffs as well. Just following up on Mike's question. Just maybe can you give a little bit more color on the second half, what are the assumptions around elasticity of demand for the industry and maybe your market share gain versus competitors?
And could you maybe talk about what you're seeing from a pricing perspective from competitors? Have you seen them change at all given the increase on their sourcing costs?

Marc Bitzer

Rage, It's Marc. Obviously, there's a lot of unknowns at this point in the marketplace, to be very honest. First of all, on the broader category elasticity, and we -- I think we made this point before, from a pure consumer perspective, the category price elasticity is actually fairly limited.
You do see, of course, in the store, once you're in the store, and you see a product that's priced at $4.99 and one at $5.99, yes, that drives elasticity, but that's not the category elasticity. So -- and we know that from the past.
But irrespective of this one, it's -- and the other factor which you need to take into account, as I said before, 65% of the current market demand is replacement. Replacement demand is not -- tends to not be very price elastic. It does not give us a lot of upside on a mix opportunity.
But if you have to replace a washer, you will replace a washer. So I think that -- so it's really the discretionary impact of the discretionary side, which could be impacted. But I think it's -- we're talking within manageable levels.
I think where we do see the upside in particular, once these tariffs fully kick in, is bringing low to our factories. As you all know, it's even more we defended our bottom line, our market share over the last three or four years have been under pressure. We're stabilized, but they are under pressure, and our factories are not fully loaded. So I think once these tariffs kick in, you will see more US production and more market share gains.

Rafe Jadrosich

And then just the industry assumption in the second half versus the first half?

James Peters

Yes. I'd say from an industry perspective, we assume it will be flat. We don't see any changes in the overall drivers of the industry. We still believe long term in the housing market. And that once we get through all this, at some point, we will see growth within the housing market that will drive significant growth long term for us. But I'd say, at least in the midterm, we're still assuming flat.

Operator

Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research.

Eric Bosshard

Two things, if I could. First of all, the tariff impact, the 250 basis point is roughly $400 million. Is that the back half impact? And what is that on an annualized basis?

Marc Bitzer

So Eric, it is largely skewed towards the back half. There have been some smaller amounts in Q1, but very -- to be honest, very small. It will be building up in Q2 and it will be heavily loaded towards the back half. The reason is, of course, the timing of the tariffs.
And when you -- as you know, from a pure accounting perspective, these impacts work by way through the inventory. So they technically show up more in the back half. So the number you've seen in front of you is largely back-half loaded. And then, of course, that also on an annual basis, it is more.

James Peters

And I'd say, Eric, the other thing to consider is, again, this is our estimate for this year with the mitigation actions that we know we have in place. If you look at different types of sourcing decisions, those mitigation actions begin to have a little bit longer time line to the benefit.
So next year, we may have a different picture in terms of what the tariffs are, depending on where we're sourcing certain things out of, and that could change. So as we said, this is really just a picture for the calendar year of this year.

Eric Bosshard

Okay. And then within that, so on an annualized basis, it's $60 million to $100 million. I'm just curious, can you just give us even a big picture perspective of this is -- half of this is finished goods you're importing Half of it is components?
I'm just trying to get a sense. I know that you're a US manufacturer, but trying to just get a sense of where -- I'm surprised the number is so big. What the source of the magnitude of that number comes from?

Marc Bitzer

Eric, it's largely components, but there's some finished goods impact. And the components are -- I have a product or a component which, at this point cannot yet sourced in either US or Mexico, but I think the supply chain will change.
Also or the impact elements which are impacted by 232 tariffs. So it is largely components. There's a smaller number of finished goods, but also here -- and that's why I'm careful about this annualized impact of next year's impact.
Because, of course, we are taking steps to revise the supply chain. So some of these effects would just probably not be there by the time we come to '26, because we will have already taken steps on the supply chain. So -- but that's right now our best estimate for this calendar year, again, I will be careful already assuming that this fully rolls over into the next few weeks, we are taking action.
So with that, again, thank you all for listening to our call today. I just want to close a little bit on an item which we typically don't talk that much about is, and this has been a special item. We -- unfortunately, we also had in March a tornado impacting one of our factories. It's actually our Tulsa, Oklahoma factory with 1,600 employees.
Even though a tornado, which caused severe damage on the factory, it happened in the morning when we have a full shift with several hundred people there, luckily enough, nobody was injured and we're very grateful and thankful for this one. But I also want to express my gratitude to the team. It's been only four weeks, the team has worked around the clock to basically get the factory up and running again.
So as of Monday, we were able to produce again despite a huge issue, which had caused in the factory, so which goes up more. Thank you to our Oklahoma team. And I think it's a testimony to all the good things you can achieve with a strong American workforce.
So on that note, I appreciate you all listening, and thank you very much.