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Q1 2025 Ovintiv Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Jason Verhaest; Investor Relations; Ovintiv Inc

Brendan McCracken; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Ovintiv Inc

Corey Code; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Ovintiv Inc

Gregory Givens; Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President; Ovintiv Inc

Arun Jayaram; Analyst; JP Morgan

Gabriel Daoud; Analyst; TD Cowen

Douglas Leggate; Analyst; Wolf Research

Josh Silverstein; Analyst; UBS Equities

Phillips Johnston; Analyst; Capital One Securities, Inc

Neil Mehta; Analyst; Goldman Sachs

Kevin McCurdy; Analyst; Pickering Energy Partners

Kaleinoheaokealaula Akamine; Analyst; Bank of America Merrill Lynch

John Daniel; Analyst; Daniel Energy Partners

Presentation

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Ovintiv's 2025 first-quarter results conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or re-broadcast without expressed consent of Ovintiv.
I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jason Verhaest from Investor Relations.
Please go ahead, Mr. Verhaest.

Jason Verhaest

Thanks, Joanna, and welcome, everyone, to our first-quarter '25 conference call. This call is being webcast, and the slides are available on our website at ovintiv.com. Please take note of the advisory regarding forward-looking statements at the beginning of our slides and in our disclosure documents filed on EDGAR and SEDAR+. Following prepared remarks, we will be available to take your questions.
I will now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Brendan McCracken.

Brendan McCracken

Thanks, Jason. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining us. Before we get into the details of the quarter and our outlook for the rest of the year, I want to start with the current uncertainty in the macro environment and the resulting lower oil prices and how we are positioned to handle it.
Our business was built using mid-cycle prices of $55 WTI and $2.75 NYMEX to discipline and inform our decisions. This was purposeful to ensure we can continue generating solid bottom line corporate returns and free cash flow through the bottom of the cycle, with a post dividend breakeven price under $40 WTI, 10 to 20 years of premium drilling inventory in each of our three assets and our industry-leading capital efficiency, we are positioned to do just that.
Our Montney and Uinta transactions, which both closed in January, have boosted our free cash flow by increasing our average price realizations, lowering our cost structure and enhancing our capital efficiency. Each of our three assets is expected to generate premium returns at prices even lower than we see today. This return parity across our portfolio is a deliberate design feature of our business. At $50 and $3.75, all three of our assets deliver greater than 35% returns at the well level. This translates into a mid- to high-teen bottom line corporate return.
We started the year expecting to generate about $2.1 billion of free cash flow, assuming full year commodity prices of $70 WTI and $4 NYMEX gas. Now, assuming $60 WTI and $3.75 NYMEX for the rest of the year, we expect to generate $1.5 billion of free cash flow. Even if we assume $50 WTI and $3.75 NYMEX for the rest of the year, we still expect to generate $1 billion of free cash flow.
Because of this robust profitability, we are maintaining our original full year guidance, which reflects a maintenance level of investment. Simply put, with the business we have built today, it doesn't make sense for our shareholders to choose to shrink today. That said, we have complete flexibility to pull back activity in our development program with essentially no fees or penalties if we need to take that step.
One change from the last couple of years with lower oil prices, any savings from further efficiency gains will flow through to capital savings. Whereas previously, we've been keeping activity going and seeing our production levels settle higher. We also have access to $3.5 billion of liquidity and our leverage remains at 1.2 times. Our debt at the end of the first quarter is already about $350 million lower than when we announced the acquisition of the Montney assets in November. We are committed to continuing to reduce debt, while also maintaining returns to our shareholders through buybacks.
Furthermore, our business is not subject to any material impacts from the tariffs that have been announced to date. We pre-purchased essentially all of the steel and tubular goods needed for our 2025 program and have no other significant supply chain exposure currently. All of our Canadian condensate is sold locally in Alberta and is not subject to tariffs. And our Canadian natural gas that is sold in the US is USMCA compliant and therefore, not subject to the 10% tariff on Canadian energy products.
We are operating from a position of strength, and we can be agile to respond to changing market conditions.
Over the past several years, we have high-graded and streamlined our portfolio. And today, we have one of the most valuable premium inventory positions in our industry. Our anchor positions in the Permian and Montney, the two largest remaining oil resources in North America provide the foundation for a differentiated multi-basin E&P. We have meaningful scale with about 205,000 barrels a day of oil and condensate production and over 1.7 Bcf a day of natural gas. That makes us also among the top 10 public gas producers in North America.
Our work to build inventory depth over the past several years means we have close to 15 years of premium oil inventory in the Permian, close to 20 years of premium oil inventory in the Montney and over a decade in the Anadarko. Our operational excellence is translating into highly competitive rates of return and our capital discipline is ensuring those returns flow through to the bottom line.
We've had a strong start to the year, and our first quarter results continued to build on the track record of consistent execution. We delivered cash flow per share of $3.86 and free cash flow of $387 million, both beating consensus estimates. Production during the quarter was within or above our guidance ranges on all products. Oil and condensate volumes averaged 206,000 barrels a day with total volumes of 588,000 BOEs per day. We also came in below the midpoint on capital and met or beat on all cost guidance items.
The oil and condensate beat was driven by the Permian, where we continue to see strong well results and outperformance from our base volumes.
We are now through the noise associated with the Montney and the Uinta transaction close timing, and we expect our asset level oil and condensate volumes to stabilize through the second quarter with a more consistent profile for the remainder of the year.
I'll now turn the call over to Corey.