Q1 2025 National Cinemedia Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Chan Park; Senior Vice President, Finance; National Cinemedia Inc

Thomas Lesinski; Chief Executive Officer, Director; National Cinemedia Inc

Ronnie Ng; Chief Financial Officer; National Cinemedia Inc

Eric Wold; Analyst; Texas Capital Markets

Patrick Sholl; Analyst; Barrington Research

Mike Hickey; Analyst; The Benchmark Company

Presentation

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the National CineMedia, Inc., first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Chan Park, Senior Vice President of Finance.

Chan Park

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Lesinski; and our Chief Financial Officer, Ronnie Ng. I would like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21E of the Security Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. All statements other than statements of historical facts communicated during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to materially from the company's expectations are disclosed in the Risk Factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors.
Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures. In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP basis measurement. These reconciliations can be found at the end of today's earnings release or on the Investor Relations page of our website at ncm.com.
Now, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Thomas Lesinski

Thank you, Chan. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2025 first-quarter earnings call. Before we dive into our highlights from the quarter, I want to thank everyone who attended our 2025 Investor Day in March.
As we shared, NCM is well-positioned to win as the leading platform in cinema advertising with an unmatched competitive edge, attractive industry tailwinds, a premium audience and product, and a robust financial position. The key pillars of our growth strategy remain front and center as we move forward.
We are diligently investing in both technology and top tier talent to enhance our platform and capitalize on opportunities within the premium video ad space. At the same time, we are committed to generating long-term value for our shareholders through our share repurchase program and the reinstatement of our dividend. We look forward to building on this momentum as we continue to execute our business strategy.
Now, let's dive into the current dynamics we're seeing at the box office. In the first quarter of 25, the box office generated approximately $1.4 billion, representing an 11.6% decline compared to the same period last year. While the first quarter is a seasonally softer period for the box office, the year-over-year decline reflected both a weaker than anticipated slate with fewer tentpole films alongside the underperformance of several high-profile titles such as Snow White. This said, we are encouraged that audiences continue to show up for new features including Mufasa: The Lion King, One of Them Days, and the animated comedy, Dogman. Looking ahead, we are optimistic that attendance will recover throughout the year, supported by a strong start to the second quarter.
Kicking off the second quarter, a Minecraft movie delivered the largest opening day of the year thus far and set a record for the largest debut ever for a video game feature. Looking at attendance, the robust contribution from a Minecraft movie has more than offset the slower first quarter with NCM's year-to-date network attendance through April up 6% compared with the same period last year.
The remainder of the quarter is expected to benefit from a stronger lineup of releases across a wide range of genres, including highly anticipated titles such as Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning, Ballerina, and How to Train Your Dragon.
The second half of '25 is also shaping up to be very promising, with a rich and diverse slate of blockbuster sequels, original tentpoles, and award-season contenders poised to drive increased attendance and advertiser engagement.
Many of these highly anticipated films are on display at this year's CinemaCon in early April, which highlighted the enduring power and cult of resonance of cinema. Early previews of titles like Walt Disney Studios' Zootopia 2, Universal Pictures' Wicked for Good, and Paramount Pictures' The Running Man captivated attendees and reaffirmed the depth and quality of the theatrical slate through 2026.
Studio leaders continue to voice their commitment to the big screen, including Amazon MGM Studios, which made its CinemaCon debut this year. The content studio for the streaming giant announced 14 theatrical releases already planned for '26, a clear indicator of growing industry enthusiasm and momentum behind the theatrical model.
The widespread support from across the entertainment ecosystem reinforces the enduring appeal to theatrical experience and further validates our long-term belief in the resilience of the industry. For NCM, this momentum represents an opportunity to connect brands with hard-to-reach audiences in one of the most immersive advertising mediums available today. With a strong slate of premium cinematic content expected to draw consumers to theaters, we believe we are well-positioned to capture box office upside going forward.
Next, I want to quickly discuss two trends we are currently seeing in the advertising marketplace. First, as we previewed on our last earnings call, recent shifts in government policy have resulted in an overall reduction in government ad spend. Second, advertisers across a range of categories delayed ad spending decisions in response to tariff uncertainty in the first quarter.
As this uncertainty has increased, advertisers are reevaluating their near-term marketing strategies. Consequently, we're seeing a trend toward fewer and smaller advertising campaigns, especially across local and regional channels. We're continuing to monitor these evolving trends and are working with our advertisers to help them place the right campaigns at the right time to continue to reach NCM's valuable audiences.
With these dynamics in mind, NCM delivered results in line with our expectations.
NCM's first-quarter 2025 total revenue was $34.9 million within our guidance range. The 7% year-over-year decline reflects the slower first quarter at the box office and an expected degree of advertiser uncertainty regarding tariffs.
Approximately 42% of first quarter national on-screen revenue was attributed to the scanner market compared to 29% in the prior-year period, reflecting the market shift toward real-time advertising solutions.
Our core platinum offering continues to represent a high-quality and proven option for reaching sought-after audiences at scale, attracting category leading advertisers in wireless insurance and dining.
Adjusted OIBDA was $9 million in line with our guidance and primarily driven by reduced theater attendance and the impact to the top line. Our adjusted OIBDA also reflects investments in sales and operations coupled with one-time investments that were not incurred last year. As we've stated previously, we do not expect our first-quarter results to be indicative of our full year performance.
Based upon our current sales pacing, we expect to achieve year-over-year growth for the second quarter. Despite the headwinds we saw in the first quarter, the fundamentals of our business remain strong. NCM continues to be the largest cinema ad network in the US, providing advertisers unmatched reached to valuable young and diverse audiences in a brand-safe, high-impact environment.
Across our entire network, NCM reached over 72 million individuals in the first quarter. Primarily driven by Gen Z and millennials, who accounted for 64% of our viewership in the quarter. Gen Z alone comprised 36% of our total audience and maintained a strong weekly average rating of 4.
This quarter, 30 million of the hard-to-reach 18- to 34-year-old demographic flocked to NCM theaters, resulting in a 3.9% average weekly rating, outperforming traditional media benchmarks and dominating entertainment in the first quarter.
Our strength with these sought after demographics continues to attract advertisers who recognize the value of NCM's precision targeting, real-time insights, and measurable performance outcomes. Year to date, NCM has welcomed 14 new advertisers who have not placed cinema campaigns since prior to the pandemic. As we expand our client base and enhance our platform, we remain confident that advertisers will continue turning to NCM even amid market uncertainties to leverage our high-value audiences and maximize campaign performance.
With strong fundamentals and a capitalized business model, we remain focused on investing in the business and executing on our growth strategy. And we have several exciting updates to share.
I am pleased to announce that NCM agreed to a five-year extension of our contract with AMC Theaters, the world's largest theatrical exhibition company, through the end of 2042. We're excited to further strengthen a relationship that's been foundational to our success.
The revised agreement aligns the payment structure more closely with actual performance metrics, specifically attendance, screen count, and advertising revenue, ensuring more dynamic and scalable revenue generation starting July 1, 2025.
NCM retains exclusive rights to the lobby advertising at AMC Theaters and will collaborate with them to modernize lobby video screens, improving audience engagement, and monetization potential. Additionally, the agreement strengthens the value of our advertising inventory at AMC Theaters.
Through this new agreement, we further solidified our position as the national leader in cinema advertising. Ronnie will provide additional details on the economics of this agreement in a few moments.
In addition to strengthening our network, we are prioritizing investing in our platform and enhancing its capabilities.
At Investor Day, we introduced Bullseye, a new NCMX product powered by artificial intelligence that leverages and analyzes key audience signals to deliver dynamic hyper localized messaging at scale.
Launched in Q1, Bullseye builds on the success of boomerang and boost, strengthening our growing portfolio of innovative solutions that drive measurable results across key consumer categories.
Additionally, we are excited to announce the introduction of Blueprint, the newest addition to the NCMX product suite, alongside Boomerang, Boost, and Bullseye. Blueprint uses real-time renovation permit data to identify homeowners who are actively engaged in remodeling projects, giving brands the ability to reach high-intent consumers at exactly the right moment. Bullseye Blueprint reflect our ongoing commitment to develop smart, scalable solutions that connect brands with valuable audiences during team moments.
Beyond continued innovation within the NCMX, we are accelerating our efforts to align our platform with broader shifts in the advertising landscape, particularly the growing demand for programmatic and self-serve solution. This quarter, we took a significant step in positioning NCMX to capitalize on this trend by signing a new supply side technology partner. The collaboration expands our addressable marketplace, enhances our targeting capabilities, and further strengthens our delivery of data-driven solutions.
We are starting to see our programmatic business gain meaningful traction. In the first quarter, NCM partnered with 61 unique advertisers across our on-screen and in-lobby programmatic offerings. Programmatic contributed 3% of total revenue for the first quarter, captioning 48% of our 2024 full year total programmatic revenue. This momentum has continued in the second quarter, with programmatic revenue currently pacing out of the first quarter.
Turning now to self-serve. We are pleased to announce the re-launch of our enhanced self-serve platform this quarter. The improved platform is a more user-friendly solution that enables advertisers to seamlessly activate cinema advertising, launch hyperlocal campaigns, and target specific geographic areas.
By providing new on-ramps to cinema advertising for brands who previously may not have considered it, the self-serve platform unlocks new demand channels for NCM. As demand accelerates and we continue to invest in technology, partnerships, and inventory optimization, we expect to see continued adoption of programmatic self-serve with meaningful revenue contributions from these offerings expected beginning in '26.
We also continue to recognize the potential in the local advertising space. The improvements we've made to our self-serve offering have significantly streamlined campaign execution at the local level, reducing friction for advertisers and enabling our sales team to shift focus toward higher-value opportunities across these markets.
As we shared at our 2025 Investor Day, we've been investing in experienced sales leaders to drive our local initiatives with a targeted approach. This includes dedicating resources to building relationships across the full spectrum of local advertisers, including national holding companies, placing regional buys, larger franchise operators, and small independent businesses looking to drive awareness of foot traffic.
This multi-tiered strategy will allow us to tap into growth categories at the local level, including lottery, education, automotive, and professional services. As the local advertising space continues to evolve, and with our expanded capabilities and a clear focus on execution, we are optimistic about our ability to capture incremental revenue and unlock sustained local growth.
As we look ahead to the second quarter, we are confident that we are taking the right steps to position NCM for the future. We're particularly encouraged by the robust upcoming movie slate and continue to deliver the most valuable sought after audiences with unmatched scale and reach in a uniquely immersive environment.
While we expect continued headwinds for advertisers in certain categories impacted by tariffs, we are seeing solid sales facing so far in the second quarter and into the second half of the year, and we're optimistic that advertisers will continue to turn to the unique value in ROI that NCM delivers.
The remainder of 2025 will be pivotal as the box office continues to recover and we build on our competitive edge in the marketplace. We remain mindful of the dynamic macroeconomic environment and continue to believe in the resilience of the theatrical exhibition industry, supported by a compelling film slate and renewed commitments from key industry leaders.
Now, I'll turn the call over to Ronnie to provide you with more details on our operating results and outlook.