Unlock stock picks and a broker-level newsfeed that powers Wall Street.

Q1 2025 Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

John Doyle; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc

Mark McGivney; Chief Financial Officer; Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc

Martin South; President, Chief Executive Officer of Marsh; Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc

Dean Klisura; President, Chief Executive Officer of Guy Carpenter; Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc

Nicholas Studer; President; Chief Executive Officer of Oliver Wyman Group; Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc

Gregory Peters; Analyst; Raymond James

Michael Zaremski; Analyst; BMO Capital Markets

Jimmy Bhullar; Analyst; JPMorgan Chase & Co.

David Motemaden; Analyst; Evercore ISI

Alex Scott; Analyst; Barclays Capital Inc.

Meyer Shields; Analyst; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.

Elyse Greenspan; Analyst; Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Paul Newsome; Analyst; Piper Sandler & Co.

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to Marsh McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. First quarter 2025 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.
Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.
During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)
I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

John Doyle

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our first-quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. On the call with me is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses, Martin South of Marsh; Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter; Pat Tomlinson of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also, with us this morning is Jay Gelb, Head of Investor Relations.
Marsh McClennan had a solid start to 2025. As we said, coming into the year, results in Q1 faced headwinds due to several factors, and our performance tracked well with our expectations. Overall, we grew revenue 9% in the quarter, reflecting continued momentum and underlying revenue growth and contributions from an active year of acquisitions in 2024.
Underlying revenue grew 4% despite lower fiduciary interest income and a tough comparison to a strong Q1 last year, and we saw good growth in all four of our businesses.
Adjusted operating income increased 8% from a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin declined 20 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2024, reflecting seasonality at McGriff, and adjusted EPS grew 5%.
Turning to the macro picture, clearly the global economic outlook has become more uncertain since the start of the year. Ongoing trade negotiations will continue to create challenges for businesses, and this has led to reduced consumer and business confidence, as well as financial market volatility.
The outlook is likely to remain uncertain as stakeholders continue to assess the potential impacts on global trade and businesses pause new investments. As a result, expectations for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and other factors have become less predictable.
As far as the insurance industry is concerned, tariffs would likely be inflationary to the overall cost of risk. This comes on top of the increasing frequency and severity of natural catastrophes and rising social inflation costs.
We continue to support our clients by leveraging our expertise and solutions as they navigate challenges and make decisions in this period of extreme uncertainty.
In fact, we've been advising clients for years on risks to their global supply chains, which now includes disruptions in trade policy. Sentrisk, our AI-powered supply chain platform, which we've highlighted in past calls, is a good example of our work to assess clients' vulnerabilities to ongoing trade negotiations. In addition, through webinars and thought leadership, accessed by thousands of clients, we're helping them understand the complexity of the moment.
In times like these, our clients find value in Marsh McClennan's unique perspectives, talent, and capabilities across risk, strategy, and people.
And while we are not immune to shocks in the macroeconomy, we are well positioned to navigate these environments. Our track record of performance across economic cycles is a result of the strength of our business and the consistent demand for our advice and solutions.
I would like to share some thoughts on resilience and preparedness for natural disasters and the role of insurance. The earthquake that struck Myanmar and Thailand is just the latest tragic reminder that we live in a time of heightened exposures to catastrophes.
This tragedy, along with the California wildfires and recent flooding in the US, highlights the devastating human toll and economic impact caused by natural disasters, especially taking into consideration the significant proportion of losses that are typically uninsured. These events show the urgent need for resilience and risk mitigation planning in disaster prone areas.
Enhancing risk mitigation is essential for sustainable development and reducing the devastating impact of these events on individuals, businesses, and economies.
In catastrophe prone areas, we must invest in ways that strengthen our infrastructure and lessen the impact of future disasters.
To put this into perspective, a recent report from the US Chamber of Commerce shows that every $1 spent on resilience saves communities $13 in damages, cleanup costs, and economic impact.
US homeowners are increasingly reliant on state-sponsored insurers of last resort in catastrophe-prone areas. In these circumstances, pricing that accurately reflects the true cost of risk can often be compromised in favor of making insurance more available and affordable.
Governments and regulators can help by prioritizing resilience and creating the right economic incentives to mitigate losses and foster sustainable improvements in insurance markets.
Without increased resilience, the human toll will remain high, and the cost of risk will continue to be a significant tax on economies, diverting funds from other important societal priorities.
Turning to insurance market conditions, according to the March Global Insurance Market Index, rates decreased 3% in the first quarter, despite an elevated risk landscape. This follows a 2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a reminder, our index skews the large account business.
Overall, rates in the US decreased 1%. Latin America was down low single digits. Europe, UK, and Asia were down low to mid-single digits, and Pacific was down high single digits.
Global property rates decreased 6% year over year, following a 3% decline last quarter. Global casualty rates increased 4%, with US excess casualty up approximately 16% in the quarter. Workers' compensation decreased mid-single digits. Global financial and professional liability rates were down 6%, while cyber also decreased by 6%.
In reinsurance, despite the California wildfire losses, capacity remains more than sufficient to support compliant demand, including additional limits and loss impacted programs.
Throughout the first quarter, market conditions were consistent with what we saw at January 1. Strong reinsurer profitability, high ROEs, and increased capital levels have resulted in ample supply of property cat capacity and rate reductions. It was also a record quarter for cat bond issuance.
US property cat reinsurance rates remain competitive for the April 1 renewal period. Non-loss impacted rates were down 5% to 15%, while loss impacted programs typically experienced 10% to 20% rate increases.
In US casualty reinsurance, we continue to see a range of outcomes depending on loss experience, with primary carriers demonstrating limit, rate, and underwriting discipline.
In Japan, April 1 property cat rates overall were down 10% to 15% on a risk adjusted basis. Early signs for the June 1, Florida cat risk renewals points to similar market conditions seen in January and April with an anticipated increase in demand ready to be absorbed by more than adequate supply. As always, our focus is on helping clients navigate these dynamic market conditions.
Now let me provide a brief update on our acquisition of McGriff, which closed on November 15 last year.
Our colleagues at McGriff performed well in the quarter, and the integration remains on track. The team is quickly leveraging the broader capabilities of our company while bringing their own distinct advantages to the market. We are already seeing wins from bringing together the best of both.
As we said when we announced the transaction, McGriff is a business with outstanding talent and a track record of strong growth, and I'm excited to have them as part of our firm.
Now, let me turn to our first-quarter financial performance and outlook, which Mark will cover in more detail.
Revenue grew 4% on an underlying basis, with 4% growth in RIS and 4% in consulting. Marsh was up 5%. Guy Carpenter grew 5%. Mercer 4%, and Oliver Wyman was up 4%.
We had adjusted operating income growth of 8%, and we generated adjusted EPS in the quarter of $3.06 which was up 5% from a year ago. We also repurchased $300 million of stock in the quarter.
Turning to our outlook for 2025, we continue to expect mid-single digit underlying revenue growth, another year of margin expansion, and solid adjusted EPS growth.
Of course, this outlook is based on conditions today, and the economic backdrop could turn out to be materially different than our assumptions.
In particular, and as discussed earlier, the uncertainty and ongoing trade negotiations and their effect on consumer and business confidence could have a significant impact on the global economy and our results.
In summary, we are pleased with our results and are off to a good start in 2025. We are well positioned and have a resilient business that provides critically important advice and solutions, and we have proven our ability to deliver across cycles.
With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.