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Q1 2025 Liberty Global Ltd Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Michael Fries; Vice Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer; Liberty Global Ltd

Charles Bracken; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Liberty Global Ltd

Stephen van Rooyen; Chief Executive Officer, VodafoneZiggo; Liberty Global Ltd

Enrique Rodriguez; Executive Vice President, Chief Technology Officer; Liberty Global Ltd

Carl Murdock-Smith; Analyst; Citigroup Inc.

Robert Grindle; Analyst; Deutsche Bank AG

Polo Tang; Analyst; UBS Investment Bank

Stephen Malcolm; Analyst; Redburn (Europe) Limited

Joshua Mills; Analyst; BNP Paribas Exane

Ulrich Rathe; Analyst; Bernstein Ltd

Matthew Harrigan; Analyst; The Benchmark Company

David Wright; Analyst; BofA Securities

James Ratzer; Analyst; New Street Research LLP

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Liberty Global's first quarter 2025 investor call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global and any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the express written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited. (Operator Instructions)
Today formal presentation material can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com.
After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. Page 2 of the slides details the company's safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements.
Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical fact.
These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed Forms 10-Q and 10-K as amended.
Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.

Michael Fries

Great, and welcome, everyone. Thanks for joining our first quarter investor call. We've got a lot of ground to cover, so we'll jump right into prepared remarks. Of course, after that, we look forward to your questions where I'll get members of our management team engaged as needed. Just to reminder that we'll be working off of slides today, which those of you on the webcast, should be able to see now, at least we hope so. If not, they're always available on our website.
So I'll kick off on slide 3 with a few broad observations. As you remember, 15 months ago on this call, we outlined a strategic plan that was focused on creating value, and just as importantly, finding ways to deliver that value to our shareholders. The tax-free spin-off of Sunrise this past November, which continues to trade well in the Swiss market was the first big dividend from that plan, but not our only achievement.
Just a few months ago on our year-end call, we reviewed progress across the balance of those strategic initiatives and presented the tactical steps we're taking now to create value on our three core platforms: Liberty Telecom, Liberty Growth, and Liberty Services. Now the first takeaway from this call is that the team and I remain fully committed to those goals, and we're making solid progress across the board.
That includes driving commercial momentum and network upgrades in our increasingly competitive telecom markets; optimizing our corporate structure and services platforms; and with $2.1 billion of cash on hand and a further $500 million to $750 million of asset sales planned this year, continuing to be smart about capital allocation. So let's go through it one by one.
Beginning with Liberty Telecom on slide 4, where the value creation opportunity is substantial and the strategy is clear. Wherever and whenever possible, we intend to pursue transactions or opportunities that crystallize and deliver value to shareholders in the medium term.
Remember, Sunrise as part of Liberty Global was valued at around 5.5x EBITDA. As a stand-alone Swiss company, it's now trading at over 8x EBITDA or the equivalent of $11 per Liberty share, so basically equal to our current market cap. And Sunrise was only 10% of our aggregate EBITDA.
And we're not saying we can do that in every case, but there are multiple opportunities for value creation at the level of our operating companies, which still comprise four markets, 80 million connections, $22 billion of aggregate revenue and $8 billion of aggregate EBITDA, so we have a lot to work with, and we're focused on three near-term tactical goals for Liberty Telecom.
The first is the finance and monetize network infrastructure, where we can do that. And as we discussed, the rationale for this varies by market, but we know fixed infrastructure in Europe is a highly sought after and valuable asset class, so where possible, we're seeking to raise capital at higher multiples, accelerate or strengthen network upgrades and rollouts and create strategic platforms for market rationalization. That's exactly what we believe we're achieving in Belgium.
The creation of our NetCo, which we call Wyre has allowed us to develop an exclusive wholesale relationship with Orange. It's allowed us to secure attractive CapEx financing for our fiber upgrade, and it's allowed us to enter into strategic discussions with the incumbent Proximus around network sharing, which are progressing quite well, actually. And then ultimately, it's going to allow us to facilitate bringing equity partners into the platform on highly accretive terms.
In Ireland, our fiber upgrade will reach 80% of our footprint by the end of this year and has already improved our competitiveness. It's allowed us to enter into wholesale arrangements with both Sky and Vodafone, generating new revenue streams and it's reshaped the market in our favor.
In the UK, we are confirming today that we have paused our NetCo plans at the VMO2 level in order to align with Telefonica's announced strategic review. At the same time, nexfibre has updated its plans, and will now target 2.5 million fiber homes by year-end on a cumulative basis.
Let me say first that we pride ourselves on being good partners, and we appreciate and understand Telefonica's position. Undoubtedly, we have more to say about all of this as the year unfolds. In the meantime, there are multiple ways to continue to strengthen VMO2's competitive position in the UK. Our services already reach 7 million fiber homes, and for reference, VMO2 achieved record sales and net adds last month on the nexfibre footprint. So stay tuned here.
In the Netherlands, Stephen van Rooyen has made significant progress on a new strategic plan. You'll hear about that just in a moment. One element of that plan is a double down on DOCSIS 4.0 and the evolution of our broadband network, which resolves the outstanding question on some of your minds as to whether we need to build fiber in the Netherlands, and the answer is no.
The second tactical goal on this slide is to organize our strategic and operating plans in a way that delivers long-term free cash flow growth and allows us to begin deleveraging over time. The Sunrise spin reaffirmed the fact that stable free cash flow and more modest leverage are catalysts for value creation. Now Charlie will have more to say about this in a moment, but we are constantly focused on the balance sheet of our operating companies, having refinanced all 2027 maturities in the last 12 months. And we just in this past quarter, extended a further EUR500 million of Telenet's debt at rates in line with historical spreads.
Now we're sensitive to the fact that our leverage in some cases is above our targets. That is why we've announced, for example, the sale of our Dutch towers and then we intend to use those proceeds to pay down debt.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it is imperative that we continue to drive commercial momentum across our businesses. Every market is different, of course, but competitive intensity is increasing wherever we operate. This is the nature of our sector today.
In addition to stabilizing our network strategies, we're finding across the footprint that three core things are working well. Wherever we operate, we are supporting customer acquisition with flanker brands that target different segments of the market.
Giffgaff is a strong complement to the O2 brand in the UK, and we've just launched a broadband proposition than this growing customer segment. [Alanoi] in the Netherlands was just awarded the best mobile provider and base in Belgium allows us to compete at the lower end of the market as well as expand into the South, where we see great opportunity for mobile and broadband growth.
In every market, we are hyper focused on base management and retention. This includes things like strengthening the value of our loyalty programs to drive stickiness and support cross-sell and upsell. In markets like the UK, we're growing ARPU with AI tools that dynamically and proactively address customer contracts and churn.
And we're hardening our base with things like a 25% speed increase in Holland and Check and Smile service programs in Belgium. And then lastly, we're sharpening our competitive positioning with new packaging and pricing. VMO2 just refreshed its mobile portfolio with better airtime rates and multi-SIM offerings. And as we'll discuss in a monent, VodafoneZiggo just lowered its front book to match KPN.
Now many of these steps are laying the groundwork for greater reach, stronger sales, better retention, more ARPU and higher quality of service, primarily over the medium term. And while we do see green shoots in many markets today, competition for broadband and mobile customers remains intense.
Generally, our Q1 subscriber and operating results on slide 5 reflect that. We saw stable broadband losses with a downtick in the UK, and we experienced weakness in postpaid mobile across all of our markets with the exception of Holland. And these headwinds were offset by strong fixed ARPU growth, nearly everywhere reflecting price increases and the impact of the commercial initiatives I just referenced.
Turning to each market briefly. In the UK, broadband net adds declined due to higher churn and higher overall market flux. That was driven in part by one touch switch, the new policy and aggressive AltNets offers, [Lut] and the team are adapting the approach they're using to retention, while continuing to focus on value with another quarter, as I said, of solid fixed ARPU growth.
And with over 2 million greenfield homes, there are significant growth opportunity remaining in the nexfibre footprint. Overall, the UK post-paid market remained relatively soft, with the VMO2 impacted by B2B contract port-outs, which are typically lower value, of course. Consumer net adds on the other hand, improved year-on-year. And encouragingly, we saw stable O2 churn dynamics, and we continue to see Giffgaff growth despite a competitive overall market with lots of MVNO activity.
It's worth noting that mobile service revenue, as reported by was Virgin Media O2 was up in the quarter year-over-year that was supported in part by a 2.6% uptick in mobile post-paid ARPU.
Now turning to VodafoneZiggo, we continue to see an intensely competitive environment, driven by promo offers from pretty much all of the providers, and we'll discuss in more detail on the next slide, what we intend to do. But in response to this, VodafoneZiggo launched new front book offers with simplified tiers and between a EUR3 to EUR5 price reduction, and that helps them better align the KPM pricing.
And we've already seen some benefits at churn as customers migrate. Postpaid mobile net adds in Holland were 29,000 that was driven by growth in B2B. And while the mobile market is generally more rational than fixed, we still see lots of price competition in the no-frills segment.
In Belgium, we had a steady quarter compared to prior periods, where we continue to see traction with our base flanker brand in the South. On the Telenet brand, we saw a successful WiFi campaign during the quarter. We announced a price adjustment of around 3%, which took effect from April.
The Belgian mobile market remains highly competitive, and that's characterized by prolonged promotional activity and repriced offers from the main flanker brands. In response to this, we've successfully repositioned BASE as a counter to the launch of Digi and that's driven improved performance in our flanker brand.
And then finally, the Irish broadband market is heating up around fiber, but we've seen churn improve as Virgin Media Ireland optimizes the customer retention process. During the quarter, we've also seen our wholesale growth through Sky and Vodafone starting to offset retail losses.
Now let me spend a few moments on VodafoneZiggo. As you know, Stephen has been leading the charge for about six months. One of the main reasons that we in Vodafone hired Stephen was that we felt he could give us a clear-eyed assessment of the market, help us figure out VodafoneZiggo's true strengths and weaknesses and development planned to win again. And that's exactly what he's done.
On slide 6, you'll see a very brief summary of the four key drivers he and the management team will use to regain commercial momentum in what is essentially a healthy three-player market, that's beginning with how they work. Specifically, that means simplifying processes, accelerating decision-making and optimizing cost and efficiencies. This was long overdue and will also generate significant OpEx savings.
Second, I think he has correctly concluded that the Dutch market is driven by speed and price, not necessarily technology. We have the highest ARPUs in the market. So this is the right time to reposition pricing, which we've already started doing in the front book, as I just mentioned.
And then third, as I mentioned a moment ago, Dutch consumers value speed, price and quality of service. And on the fixed network, we're going to go all in on DOCSIS 4.0, which will take us to 8 gig speed by the end of 2026 at a fraction of the cost to build fiber in this market. In the meantime, our current network configuration can get us to 2 gigs, which will accelerate.
And then finally, the team will reinvest in VodafoneZiggo's core strengths. That includes strong brands, popular loyalty programs and a large FMC base as well as unique sports platform. Charlie will walk through some of the financial implications of this plan. But Marguerite and I are 100% supportive of Stephen and the team. It's time to reset in order to get back to growth.
Now turning to slide 7 over the last year or so, we provide greater disclosure on our Liberty Growth portfolio. I think that's helped investors and analysts understand the nature and quality of our investments in tech, media and content and infrastructure. This is especially important, given the size of our portfolio at $3.3 billion, and its relative contribution to our share price today, roughly $10 per share on an $11 stock.
The strategy with Liberty Growth is simple. We want to be in a position to rotate capital out of non-core and subscale assets and into higher-return businesses or strategic Liberty Telecom opportunities. Tactically, we have committed to sell between $500 million to $750 million of assets this year. We have line of sight on certain deals, and I'd remind you that our publicly listed stakes alone totaled $550 million.
Now it's premature to disclose any potential investments into Liberty Telecom with those proceeds, but we have been quite busy at the Liberty Growth level. As a reminder, our portfolio is highly concentrated with seven investments accounting for nearly 75% of the $3.3 billion fair market value today. Now you can see those $2.5 billion of investments listed on the bottom left of slide 8, along with the sequential change in fair market value this quarter.
And the changes quarter-over-quarter relate to increased investment, favorable FX movements and increases in valuations, and they total about $200 million for the entire portfolio just in the last three months. And given our controlling interest in Formula E, we do now consolidate this investment, and we're excited about showing more regular updates. It's been a fantastic start to Season 11, with record viewership, particularly in the US where our Mexico City race, for example, to an audience, 80% higher than F1s Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Now we're headed to Monaco this weekend, and I'm telling you it's sold out for the doubleheader on Saturday and Sunday. And interestingly, to tap into this growing popularity, we launched a pretty interesting and unique sort of first in motor sports, where we brought 11 well-known personalities from sport, technology and entertainment and gave them the unprecedented chance to prepare like a Formula E race and actually drive the Gen3 EVO car during a two-day track event at the Miami circuit.
And you'll see that content, which has already generated 300 million views across social media and in a feature linked documentary later this year. Also last week, we launched a brand-new Formula E documentary on Amazon Prime which goes behind the scenes with four drivers over the 2024 season. I encourage you to check it out, just to get a feel for the racing and the personalities in the championship.
And then finally, we're a short 18 months away from the new Gen4 car, which is now testing and delivering incredible power, speed and performance. So exciting things happening there.
One more slide for me on Liberty Services and our evolving corporate structure. As a reminder, the Ritec and Liberty Bloom generate $600 million of annual revenue and positive operating free cash flow. Now far from being a burden, each of these platforms continues to pursue growth and efficiency initiatives that will create real equity value for shareholders.
Liberty Bloom, as you remember, provides a host of financial and back-office services, just went public with its first marketing campaign has already added according to Charlie, 10 new non-Liberty clients to the roster. The balance of our corporate costs amount to about $200 million annually after management fees, and this is the number that analysts are valuing at approximately 14x, resulting in a $10 reduction in our sum of the parts.
Not only does the reduction in value not recognized the inherent equity value of Liberty Bloom and Liberty Tech, it penalizes us in relation to other sectors like media and private equity even compared to some of our telco peers. Now we'll continue to make the case with analysts. But in the meantime, we are working on reducing these corporate costs, through a combination of efficiencies and additional revenue generated from the Liberty Telecom, Liberty Growth and Liberty Services. So stay tuned for more details about this in the second half of the year.
And then finally, just a reminder that our corporate cash, which totaled $2.1 billion at the end of the quarter, 60% in euros and is dedicated to supporting the strategic plans I just outlined. This includes, of course, opportunistic share buybacks, which we have targeted at up to 10% of our shares in 2025. As always, I look forward to digging into greater detail during the Q&A. But with that, Charlie, over to you.