Q1 2025 ICF International Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Lynn Morgen; Investor Relations; AdvisIRy Partners

John Wasson; Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer; ICF International Inc

Barry Broadus; Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President; ICF International Inc

Tim Mulrooney; Analyst; William Blair

Joe Vafi; Analyst; Canaccord Genuity

Tobey Sommer; Analyst; Truist Securities

Kevin Steinke; Analyst; Barrington Research

Marc Riddick; Analyst; Sidoti & Company, LLC

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to the first-quarter 2025 ICF earnings conference call. My name is Karen, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I will now turn the call over to Lynn Morgan of AdvisIRy Partners. Lynn, you may begin.

Lynn Morgen

Thank you, Karen. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review ICF's first-quarter 2025 performance. With us today from ICF are John Wasson, Chair and CEO; and Barry Broadus, CFO. Joining them, is James Morgan, Chief Operating Officer.
During this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding ICF management's expectations about our future performance. These statements are subject to a number of risks that could cause actual events and results to differ materially. And I refer you to our May 1, 2025, press release and our SEC filings for discussions of those risks.
In addition, our statements during this call are based on our views as of today. We anticipate that future developments will cause our views to change. Please consider the information presented in that light. We may, at some point, elect to update the forward-looking statements made today but specifically disclaim any obligation to do so.
I will now turn the call over to ICF's CEO, John Wasson, to discuss first-quarter 2025 performance. John?

John Wasson

Thank you, Lynn, and thank you all for joining us this afternoon to review our first-quarter results and discuss our business outlook. We are pleased to report that our first-quarter revenues were in line with our expectations, reflecting the strength of our diversified business model and supporting the 2025 guidance framework we discussed during our February 27 earnings call.
There are several key takeaways worth noting, First, our revenues from commercial, state and local, and international government clients in the aggregate accounted for 51% of our first-quarter revenues, up from about 45% one year ago. Second, revenues from commercial energy clients increased 21% year over year, demonstrating continued strong demand from utility clients.
Third, adjusted EBITDA margin on total revenues expanded 10 basis points to 11.3%, reflecting mix benefits and careful cost management. And lastly, our non-GAAP EPS was up almost 10%, considerably ahead of our first-quarter revenue comparisons. And we do expect non-GAAP EPS to outpace revenue performance for the full year as well.
I'll now review additional first-quarter business trends and then provide further insight into ICF's federal government business in the context of the new administration's directives and spending priorities.
To begin, revenues from commercial clients increased 22.1% to account for 29.5% of total first-quarter revenues, up from 23.9% in last year's first quarter. Commercial energy was the key driver of the strong performance, with revenues up 21% to represent 87% of the commercial client category. This growth was driven by new and expanded energy efficiency, electrification, and customer engagement programs for utility clients.
We are experiencing continued demand from utilities for energy efficiency, demand response, customer engagement, and flexible load management programs as our clients seek to accommodate rapid load growth. The vast majority of these programs are funded by ratepayers as public service commissions in over 30 states recognize the benefits of reducing energy usage over building new power plants.
ICF is the market leader in developing and implementing residential energy efficiency programs having earned this position by meeting or exceeding our clients' energy savings goals over the last 20 years. And we offer investment by gaining share in commercial energy efficiency as well. We also saw solid demand for environment and planning services in the first quarter with notable increases in work associated with utility infrastructure replacement after the California wildfires and work for solar and wind developers for projects that are not on federal land, which more than offset the softening in offshore wind projects.
And our Energy Advisory Group won new business that included a diverse portfolio of projects that includes natural gas market analysis, transmission and wholesale price assessments, engineering and technical advisory services, and grid engineering projects, including planning for new utility substations to meet demand from data centers.
In the first quarter, we also completed the integration of AEG, the leading energy technology and advisory firm we acquired at the end of 2024. AEG provides a suite of integrated technology and solutions to electric and gas utilities, state and local governments, and state energy offices nationwide, and our teams are working together to find opportunities for synergistic growth.
ICF has deep domain expertise and experience across the energy landscape, and we are very confident in the growth prospects through our commercial energy business. Many of our utility clients are increasing budgets, resisting energy efficiency and flexible load management programs, and are seeking permission from regulators to add new programs.
We're also experiencing greater demand for resource adequacy planning, renewal integration, transmission and distribution engineering, and demand-side planning, especially since generation alternatives are facing increasing supply chain and tariff concerns. And there's been an uptick in request for transactions and due diligence services, all this pointing to the continuation of strong demand for ICF's capabilities.
Revenues from state and local government clients were stable year on year in the first quarter. Disaster management, which accounts for about 45% of this client category, experienced lower pass-through revenues in the first quarter, although revenues less pass-throughs in this market were actually up 3% year on year.
We were awarded two new contracts in two additional states, bringing to 95 the number of active disaster recovery contracts we are executing in 22 states and territories. Additionally, we are responding to several competitive opportunities to support wildfire recovery efforts in California and were currently operating and supporting Oregon's ReOregon program to help homeowners, renters, and communities we cover from the wildfires.
Our climate, environment, and infrastructure services for state and local clients represents about 40% of our state and local government client category, and revenues in this area were stable as last year's first quarter following the completion of a large infrastructure project in the state of Maryland. This market area continues to be attractive as the general increase in large infrastructure projects is providing enhanced opportunities for our planning, permitting, and construction monitoring services. And we are seeing increased activity among many state and local governments in spending approval, approved IRA, and infrastructure bipartisan infrastructure legislative funds and filling the gap that has been left after reductions in federal climate programs.
States like California and New York are doubling down on their climate commitments. And many state and local entities are investing in climate resilience and adaptation strategies in order to mitigate the impact and recovery costs of future potential disasters and providing opportunities for ICF's planning and program administration services.
Also, our revenues from international government clients increased 7.2% in the first quarter. After a slower start than expected, we are beginning to execute task orders related to recent sizable contract wins with the European Union and the UK government. And we are finding opportunities to leverage our technology solutions and AI capabilities to bid on an expanded universe of task order opportunities.
To sum up, ICF's first-quarter revenues and outlook from commercial energy, state and local, and international government clients support our expectation that for the full year, revenues from these three client categories and that aggregate are forecasted to grow at least 15% and will account for over 55% of our 2025 total revenues.
Now to our revenues from federal clients, which declined 12.6% compared to last year's first quarter. Year-on-year comparisons were impacted by contract funding curtailments and the slower pace of new RFPs as well as a decline in subcontractor and other direct costs estimated at $12 million.
The good news is that the government shutdown was inverted in March, and we are beginning to see a flow of contract extensions and modifications and RFPs. Not at a normalized pace but still an improvement from earlier in the year. As we noted last quarter, we continue to take a hard look at all of our federal government contracts and pipeline of opportunities to determine where there is a likelihood for additional stop orders, terminations or opportunities to be delayed or fall out of the pipeline through the shift in priorities associated with the new administration.
Our evaluation of the risk to our revenues is based on a conservative out of analysis and is updated regularly based on market and client feedback. Year to date through May 1, approximately $115 million of our estimated 2025 revenues have been affected by stop work orders and by contract terminations.
While we expect the environment to remain fluid, we reaffirm our revenue guidance for 2025 of flat to 10% down from last year. As a reminder, the 10% reduction in total revenues from 2024 levels represents the floor we foresee for our 2025 revenue performance from the loss of primary federal governments.
As Barry will discuss in his remarks, we plan to maintain our adjusted EBITDA margins on 2025 revenues at levels comparable to our 2024 margins, and the caveats remain the same. This guidance framework does not contemplate an extensive governance shutdown this year, a prolonged period of deposits and funding modifications to existing contracts or new procurements. This estimate also does not consider any additional work that ICF may gain, as a result of the changes underway.
For example, ICF perform work for the federal government focused on prevention of fraud, waste, and abuse and we have extensive public health expertise and experience in key areas such as nutrition, obesity, suicide prevention, cancer research, health risk associated with use of pesticides, chemicals and plastics and food additives that we expect will be areas of focus under the new administration at HHS.
Also, over 80% of our IT modernization digital transformation work for federal government clients is in Agile scrums and sprints, and at least half is under fixed price outcome-based contracts, which represent the administration's preferred approach for procuring services and solutions. So we are well prepared to respond to several proposals, which require fixed-price outcome-based solutions.
ICF has a proven track record of effectively managing through difficult business environment, and we believe our broad capabilities and diversified client base will serve us well in 2025 and position us for return to growth in 2026.
Now I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Barry Broadus, for financial review. Barry?