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Q1 2025 Exxon Mobil Corp Earnings Call- Q&A Session

In This Article:

Participants

James Chapman; Vice President - Investor Relations, Treasurer; Exxon Mobil Corp

Darren Woods; Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer; Exxon Mobil Corp

Kathryn Mikells; Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President; Exxon Mobil Corp

Betty Jiang; Analyst; Barclays Capital Inc.

Devin McDermott; Analyst; Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Douglas Leggate; Analyst; Wolfe Research, LLC

Neil Mehta; Analyst; Goldman Sachs & Company, Inc.

Stephen Richardson; Analyst; Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

John Royall; Analyst; J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Biraj Borkhataria; Analyst; RBC Capital Markets

Jean Ann Salisbury; Analyst; BofA Global Research

Alastair Syme; Analyst; Citi Investment Research

Roger Read; Analyst; Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Bob Brackett; Analyst; Bernstein Institutional Services LLC

Josh Silverstein; Analyst; UBS Securities LLC

Ryan Todd; Analyst; Piper Sandler & Co.

Presentation

James Chapman

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to ExxonMobil's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. We appreciate your joining us today.
I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. And I'm joined by Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Michaels, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
This quarter's presentation and pre-recorded remarks are available on the investors section of our website. They're meant to accompany the first-quarter earnings news release, which is posted in the same location. We also published a new company overview presentation, which is posted alongside our earnings materials. This document provides some new financial and other perspectives on ExxonMobil.
During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments, including discussions of our long-term plans, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2. You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website. Note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on the website.
And now I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.

Darren Woods

Good morning and thanks for joining us. I'll begin with some comments on the current market and policy environment, especially in light of the ongoing uncertainty in tariffs. It is clear that this uncertainty is weighing on economic forecast, causing significant volatility and raising the prospects of slower growth. Coupled with the threats of increased OPEC supply, we're seeing significant downward pressure on prices and margins.
In this environment, it's more important than ever to focus on what we can control, in this company's track record of delivery. The work we've done over the past eight years should make one thing clear: we're ready for this.
Our strategy has led to an advantaged portfolio with low cost of supply, a strong balance sheet with a 7% net debt to capital ratio that leads the large cap industrials and all IOCs, and a lean cost base. We've taken $12.7 billion of structural cost out of the business since 2019.
Think about that. Almost $2.5 billion a year for the past five years. No other IOC even comes close. Our organization has planned for this. We pressure test our plans and the financial outcomes with scenarios that are more severe than our COVID experience. For us, success isn't defined in the good times, but in the hard times. That's also where our competitive advantages in people, scale, technology, integration, and execution excellence really stand out.
Today, we're prepared and better positioned than others to respond to market challenges and in fact, take advantage of the opportunities they present. Looking past this, the longer-term fundamentals underpinning our businesses are robust.
The world will continue to need reliable and affordable energy and our portfolio of products to support modern living. We'll continue to invest in advantaged projects for both our existing and new businesses to profitably meet these needs. When we get to 2030, I'm confident we will have delivered on our plan -- $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash, assuming constant prices and margins, and significantly greater value for shareholders.
Turning to our current performance, we delivered another strong quarter thanks to the hard work of our people executing our strategy. Our earnings were $7.7 billion, up 4% sequentially, excluding identified items. We generated $13 billion of cash flow from operations, which led all IOCs.
As I noted, to improve efficiency, we continue to take expense out of the business with an industry-leading program of structural cost savings. To further high-grade our portfolio, we sold $1.8 billion of assets in the quarter, driven by divestments in the upstream.
We've also completed the $5 billion of incremental divestments we laid out at the corporate plan update in December. And we'll continue to actively manage our portfolio and evaluate opportunities to further high-grade where it makes sense. Since 2019, we've sold $24 billion of non-core assets, strategically reshaping our portfolio and growing earnings power.
Taken together, the strategic choices and investments we've made since 2019 has strengthened our quarterly earnings power by $4 billion at current prices and margins. Our ongoing transformation to become a more efficient company with the lower cost of supply is driving lower break evens with firm plans to improve them to $35 per barrel by 2027 and $30 per barrel by 2030.
Importantly, we're lowering breakevens the right way, by growing earnings power and cash flow, not slashing capital investments, which are the foundation for value growth in our business. Prudently investing in advantaged opportunities across price cycles was key to doubling earnings since 2019 and is critically important to growing cash flow, $30 billion by 2030.
Our ability to successfully deliver large-scale attractive investments at or below cost, and often ahead of schedule, positions us well in difficult market conditions. We are seeing that in China, where we recently commenced operations at our world scale chemical plant. This is one of the largest, most complex projects we've ever done. And we delivered it ahead of schedule and under budget.
We will competitively supply high-value chemical products for the China market protected from tariffs with attractive long-term growth. We're starting up our second advanced recycling unit at Baytown, using proprietary technology to recycle plastic waste at a much lower cost than alternative processes. Like our first advanced recycling unit, the new one will have capacity to process 80 million pounds a year for a growing market of certified circular polymers.
We're bringing on two new FPSOs at our deep water projects, offshore Guyana and Brazil. We expect to start up both later this year.
And in our new technology-enabled businesses, market interest continues to grow. With our Proxxima business, we've showcased a new high-strength EV battery case at the world's leading composite trade show in March. Our solution improves the efficiency of the vehicle manufacturing process, reduces the overall weight, and can't be replicated by other composites.
We also announced a collaboration with Nordex Group, a leading wind turbine manufacturer to use Proxxima resin as a more durable solution for the company's blades. We'll hit multiple Proxxima milestones this year, including more than doubling our production capacity. Altogether, the 10 advantaged projects we're starting up this year are expected to generate more than $3 billion of earnings in 2026 at constant prices and margins.
Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: invest in profitable growth, maintain financial strength, and share our success with shareholders. To generate strong cash flows, years into the future, we must invest today. It's hard to consistently grow free cash flow in a capital-intensive business over the long term, and we are doing it. Reducing attractive investments to increase near-term free cash flow weakens the business over the long term.
Compromising the future is a high price to pay for pleasing a few short-term investors. Our cash flow grows consistently throughout our planned horizon of 2030. And while our total cash CapEx grows to between $28 billion and $33 billion per year through 2030, our reinvestment rate declined from 50% to 40% of cash flow over the planned period. We're putting capital to its highest and best use to further strengthen the earnings power of the company.
In the Upstream, we're focused on growing volumes of our most profitable barrels. We're on track for more than 60% of our production to come from advantaged assets by 2030, with an increase in per barrel profit from $10 a barrel last year to $13 a barrel in 2030.
In Product Solutions, advantaged projects are accelerating our shift to a more profitable mix of products. We're on track for 80% growth of high-value products by 2030, which will bring them to more than 40% of total product solutions earnings.
In Low Carbon Solutions, we expect to generate $1 billion of earnings by 2030 in businesses that are insulated from commodity price cycles. We know that shorter-term investors want lower CapEx and higher cash distributions.
I suspect with today's level of market uncertainty, the call for this will be even stronger. That's shortsighted. We play the long game. We are rewarding shareholders today with investments made in the past when we face similar circumstances and a lot of criticism for staying the course.
The passage of time demonstrated the value in this approach. We know that the advantaged investments we're making today are critical in growing shareholder returns and distributions in the future. Having said this, we are focused on value. If changes in market conditions present opportunities to improve the NPV of our investments by pivoting or inventorying opportunities, we'll take them. The flexibility of our investment portfolio gives us this option.
Today, more than a third of our upstream production comes from short-cycle assets, where activity and spend can be quickly adjusted in response to market conditions. And as we discussed in detail at the corporate plan update and our newer businesses and for projects that have not yet reached FID, if the necessary policy support or market developments are not sustained or do not materialize, we will defer investments.
Our focus on the fundamentals, our strategy, and the resulting investments and the strength of our advantages are growing earnings and generating cash, allowing us to create leading value for shareholders. In the quarter, we distributed $9.1 billion of cash, more than any other IOC. This included $4.8 billion of share buybacks.
We've now repurchased roughly a third of the shares we issued to complete our transformational Pioneer acquisition, which closed a year ago tomorrow. As of the quarter end, we delivered a three-year total shareholder return of 60% for a compound annual growth rate of 17%. That's well above any other IOC. It's also well above the broader set of large-cap industrial companies, with average TSR compound annual growth rate of 14%.
We also outpaced the large-cap industrials as a cash engine. Over the past three years, our total free cash flow equaled over 25% of our current market cap. Theirs averaged less than 10%.
The strong value we've created for shareholders has not gone unnoticed. We're receiving positive feedback in our engagements with investors, which we've ramped up significantly over the past five years.
Later this month is our annual meeting. Since our last one a year ago, leaders from the company, including members of our Board of Directors, have met with roughly 75% of our institutional investors. This year, for the first time since 1958, we have zero shareholder proposals in our proxy.
We believe this is a result of two things: our financial and operating results, which exceed all integrated oil companies on almost any measure, and our willingness to challenge actions that undermine the value of our company and abuse legitimate processes.
Last year, we took legal action against activists seeking to shrink our business by repeatedly submitting shareholder proposals that, in their own words, were Trojan horses for their activist agenda. This is in direct contrast to our efforts to expand engagement with investors, who want to hear more about how we're growing the value of our company.
Our lawsuit against the European Union when it implemented an unjustified profits tax and the California Attorney General, when he falsely accused us of misrepresenting the benefits of advanced plastic recycling are two other examples of fighting to retain the value we're generating for our shareholders. That's our focus and our commitment -- to grow and protect shareholder value.
With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.