Mehul Patel; Vice President, Investor Relations; Carlisle Companies Inc
Dale Koch; Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer; Carlisle Companies Inc
Kevin Zdimal; Chief Financial Officer, Vice President; Carlisle Companies Inc
Timothy Wojs; Senior Research Analyst, Senior Research Analyst, General Industrial And Building Products; Robert W. Baird & Co Inc
Susan Maklari; Analyst; Goldman Sachs
Bryan Blair; Analyst; Oppenheimer & Co Inc
Garik Shmois; Analyst; Loop Capital Markets
Adam Baumgarten; Analyst; Zelman & Associates
David MacGregor; Analyst; Longbow Research
Keith Hughes; Analyst; Truist Securities
Operator
Good afternoon. My name is John, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Carlisle company's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Mehul Patel, Carlisle's Vice President of Investor Relations. Mehul, please go ahead.
Mehul Patel
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Carlisle's first quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm Mehul Patel, Vice President of Investor Relations for Carlisle. We released our first quarter financial results today, and you can find both our press release and the presentation for today's call in the Investor Relations section of our website.
On the call with me today are Chris Koch, our Board Chair, President and CEO; along with Kevin Zdimal, our CFO.
Today's call will begin with Chris providing key highlights of our first quarter. Kevin will follow Chris with an overview of our Q1 financial performance and a reaffirmed outlook for 2025. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the line for questions.
Before we begin, please refer to slide 2 of our presentation, where we note that comments today will include forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Actual results could differ materially from these statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release and SEC filings.
As Carlisle provides non-GAAP financial information, we provided reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and in the appendix of our presentation materials, which are available on our website.
With that, I will turn the call over to Chris.
Dale Koch
Thank you, Mehul. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.
Starting with slide 3 of the presentation, where we highlight our first quarter performance and progress. I'm pleased to report that the Carlisle team showed superb perseverance in driving our key initiatives in the first quarter of 2025, overcoming significant challenges and post-election turmoil to deliver solid results.
The first quarter challenges included the continued weakness in the residential construction markets, the negative impact of this winter's weather, especially in January and February and the significant economic uncertainty and instability created by the ongoing US tariff actions.
With tough year-over-year comparisons and with an ever-increasingly complex macroeconomic backdrop, revenue of $1.1 billion was essentially flat year-over-year. Diluted EPS for Q1 was $3.13 and adjusted EPS was $3.61. As anticipated and consistent with the trends we experienced as we exited 2024, the first quarter began with a slower start, primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions in January and February across many of our key markets. Fortunately, improved weather conditions in March and healthy reroofing activity helped to offset much of the unfavorable impact experienced in those first two months.
In our CCM segment, in addition to the strong reroofing activity, Carlisle also benefited from our 2024 MTL acquisition. Both of these factors helped offset softer conditions in the new commercial construction activity, challenging prior year weather comps and as anticipated, low single-digit price declines in CCM. The ongoing strength in reroofing demand, which represents 70% of CCM's commercial business continues to be a key driver of our resilient performance, helping to offset the more negative macro environment.
For CWT, we continue to face headwinds in residential end markets due to buyer uncertainty, affordability challenges, higher interest rates and lower housing turnover. As we've discussed previously, these residential market challenges were largely anticipated, impacted most market participants and are well understood. While we are optimistic that the underlying drivers of the residential end markets will ultimately bring significant growth and margin expansion in our CWT business.
For now, we will continue to focus on areas in our control. We are making progress on many of our key investments in seeing gains in areas such as new product introductions and factory automation within CDT. These efforts are expected to provide $3 million to $4 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA per quarter starting this quarter, along with share gain initiatives.
When we look at pricing across both CCM and CWT, we experienced modest declines as expected during the quarter, with low single-digit price declines in both CCM and CWT. Based on the announced price increases and the start of the summer season, contractor expectations are that price increases will gain traction in the second quarter, and we expect year-over-year pricing to be neutral for both CCM and CWT in the second quarter.
Turning to the much discussed subject of tariffs. As we alluded to in the Q4 2024 earnings call, over 90% of our raw materials are sourced within North America. Additionally, many of our materials that are sourced from Mexico and Canada are covered by USMCA and are not subject to tariffs. Additionally, we import very little directly from China, approximately 5% of purchases. Because of Carlisle's predominantly North American sourcing position, we currently expect a negligible direct impact from tariffs in 2025.
Turning to the indirect impact to tariffs. The indirect impact is much more difficult to quantify and forecast due to the complexity and many moving parts involved. Nonetheless, the current indirect impact of tariffs is minor for Carlisle overall and should remain so for the rest of 2025.
While the impact from tariffs, both direct and indirect may be limited, we do remain concerned that there may be unforeseen indirect consequences of the tariffs for our contractors, distributors and suppliers, along with the increased potential for a US recession, the longer these conditions remain unresolved and businesses remain uncertain about the future.
Nonetheless, we have increased conviction in our well-understood drivers to our businesses and our market intelligence, and we remain committed to our 2025 outlook. Our 2025 outlook is reinforced by the data from our latest Carlisle market survey conducted in early April. Feedback from those surveyed reinforces our positive outlook on the 2025 roofing season and our belief that commercial roofing volumes will be up low single digits.
This low single-digit increase will be more heavily weighted to reroofing the new construction demand, which we believe will be essentially flat for the full year. Additionally, pricing in our non-resi markets is showing signs of traction and our survey participants expect pricing to improve as the year progresses.
Consistent with what we experienced starting in the second quarter of 2024, 2025 full year residential volumes are expected to be down low single digits due to the continued negative impact of buyer uncertainty, affordability challenges, higher interest rates and lower housing turnover. Comments also suggest that inventory in the channel remains low by historical comparisons due to higher carrying costs and economic uncertainty.
During the quarter, we maintained our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders repurchasing 1.2 million shares for $400 million, bringing the total share repurchases since 2017 to $5 billion. Additionally, following the $1.6 billion in share repurchases in 2024, we now expect to deploy approximately $1 billion into share repurchases in 2025, an increase over our original projected share repurchases of $800 million.
As a reminder, we also increased our dividend by 17.6% last August, our 48 consecutive year of increasing our dividends to our shareholders. These actions underscore our confidence in Carlisle's future growth prospects and our ability to generate significant free cash flow.
We believe our approach to capital allocation continues to be a source of competitive advantage. We are disciplined, have always been disciplined and will remain disciplined with an aim to keep our ROIC above 25%. Additionally, we will continue to allocate capital towards strategic M&A to enhance our leadership position within the building envelope, invest in our key strategic initiatives, and invest in significant capital expenditures to support growth, innovation and further operating efficiencies.
Touching on M&A for a moment. Our acquisition of MTL continues to exceed our expectations. We are on track to exceed $20 million of synergies well above our originally announced $13 million of synergies as the Carlisle integration playbook delivers substantial value through a disciplined approach.
Similarly, we are utilizing the same playbook on our integrations of both Plasti-Fab and ThermoFoam. ThermoFoam as a reminder, continues to build our vertically integrated expanded polystyrene capabilities and adds geographic coverage in Texas and the South Central United States.
Please turn to slide 4 as I discuss the strong structural trends that continue to support our businesses. Approximately 5.9 million buildings exist in the United States, according to the 2018 commercial building's energy consumption survey. Of those, roughly 70% of US nonresidential buildings are now over 25 years old and represent a significant pool of potential buildings requiring reroofing activity. Based on our internal data, more than 80% of reroofing permits come from buildings over 25 years old.
This pool of potential reroofing demand creates a consistent and somewhat predictable demand pattern. That demand pattern is demonstrated in CCM sales data from 2008 to 2025. It is extremely important to remember, and I want to emphasize that Carlisle is an imperative business with a leading market share position in North America and what we believe is the world's best market for building products.
By using the words imperative business, what we mean is that Carlisle provides key products and solutions to address a basic need of society, the need for buildings that protect and house us and are essential to our daily lives. Roofing, insulation and weatherproofing are largely nondiscretionary and necessary components of the built environment.
This fundamental need for our products and solutions, combined with our market-leading position, provides resilience for Carlisle even during periods of economic uncertainty. It's also important to recognize that many of these older buildings will undergo multiple reroofing cycles during their lifetime. Buildings over 35 years old or 55% of the building footprint in the US and require their second or often third roof replacement. And as the 30% of building is under 25 years old, steadily roll into our addressable reroofing market, they reinforce the expanding pipeline of recurring revenue for decades to come.
Turning to slide 5. Beyond the dependable base of recurring reroofing projects, Carlisle is also benefiting from increasing revenue and profitability per square foot. This increased content is driven by several factors, stricter building codes, increasing energy efficiency regulations, more severe weather events leading to higher specification roofs and the growing adoption of 20-year warranties which require more comprehensive systems and materials.
This trend of increasing content per square foot is not new to Carlisle. In fact, it is directly aligned with one of our key pillars of our Vision 2030 strategy, innovation. Innovation drives differentiated products by first understanding the job to be done and how we can provide a better solution based on strong voice of the customer content.
These products are then designed to create value for our customers. This results in creating a preference for Carlisle's products and solutions and allows us to price to that value and increase the dollar content per square foot when compared to existing products. The ability to better address customer needs and wants, in turn, enables Carlisle to capture a greater share of wallet and deliver superior margins.
Our comprehensive warranties further enhance our ability to drive content growth. Carlisle warranties are a highly valued benefit desired by building owners who prefer complete system solutions rather than individual components. Over 80% of our warranties sold now have 20-year terms, up significantly from previous years. These market dynamics present tremendous opportunities for Carlisle. And we're strategically positioning our innovation capabilities and initiatives to capitalize on them.
By developing products that deliver superior energy efficiency require less labor to install and enable us to sell more value-added solutions per square foot. We're directly addressing the key needs of building owners and contractors while driving our own growth and profitability.
Turning to slide 6. We remain committed to accelerating our innovation efforts to deliver margin enhancing, energy-efficient and labor-saving solutions for our customers. As outlined in our Vision 2030 strategy, we're investing significantly in R&D with our new state-of-the-art research and innovation center in Carlisle PA, representing a critical part of this commitment.
We continue to focus our innovation pipeline on three key areas: evolutionary improvements to existing products, transformational new solutions and business life cycle innovations that enhance efficiency and reduce costs.
Our product development efforts are yielding positive results across both CCM and CWT segments with new products gain traction in the market. In prior calls, we've highlighted several recent product introductions, including Seam Shield, Blue Skin VP Tech and UltraTouch. All 3 rollouts are resonating with customers responding to their VOC stated needs, meeting our price-to-value objectives and are margin accretive to our portfolio.
As we continue to work with customers to grow our pipeline innovation opportunities, we remain disciplined in our approach. Our rigorous underwriting process ensures that every R&D investment is aligned with our financial and strategic objectives to drive profitable growth and maximize returns.
Simply put, we built the right infrastructure to consistently bring margin-enhancing, energy-efficient and labor-saving solutions for our customers. Our innovation investments are a critical component of our Vision 2030 strategy, and we expect our efforts to contribute meaningfully to our goal of generating 25% of revenues from new products by 2030.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional financial details and color on our outlook for 2025. Kevin?
Kevin Zdimal
Thank you, Chris. Starting with slide 7, I'll review our first quarter 2025 financial results. In the first quarter, we delivered revenue of $1.1 billion, essentially flat compared to the first quarter of 2024. The acquisitions of MTL, Plasti-Fab and Thermofom contributed $50 million in the first quarter, however, were offset by a soft residential end market, unfavorable weather in 2025 compared to favorable weather in 2024 as well as lower pricing in the first quarter from carryover pricing from 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 21.8%, down 240 basis points from the first quarter of 2024. Adjusted EPS was $3.61 and a 3% decrease from the prior year. The margin and EPS decline was due to a combination of lower volume in the quarter, negative price cost and investments in the business.
Turning to our segment performance, starting with CCM on slide 8. First quarter revenues were $799 million, up 2% year-over-year. The contribution from MTL was partially offset by a 1% decline in organic revenue. Revenue in the quarter was supported by recurring reroofing activity and customers accelerating approximately $15 million of orders to get ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases. However, these increases were not enough to offset softer new commercial construction, prior year weather comps and lower carryover pricing from 2024.
CCM's adjusted EBITDA was $217 million, down 5% compared to the first quarter of 2024 with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.1%, a decrease of 180 basis points year-over-year.
This margin compression was primarily due to lower carryover pricing and targeted investments in innovation and enhancement to the Carlisle experience. However, we continue to realize synergies from the MTL acquisition, which partially offset these headwinds.
Moving to slide 9 and our CWT segment. First quarter revenues were $297 million, down 5% compared to the prior year, with organic revenue declining by 12%. This decrease was primarily due to softer residential end markets impacted by affordability challenges, higher interest rates and lower housing turnover along with lower demand for roof coatings impacted by fewer rain events.
CWT's adjusted EBITDA was $46 million, down 28% year-over-year with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.6%, a decrease of 510 basis points. This decline was a result of deleverage on lower revenue and negative price costs in the quarter. We remain confident in the investments we made, including our automation projects and share gain initiatives.
Our automation and factories, cross-selling initiatives in the retail chains, M&A synergies and new product introductions are all progressing well. They should deliver benefits starting in the second quarter and accelerate into the second half of 2025, positioning CWT for improved performance going forward.
Slide 10 provides our first quarter 2025 adjusted EPS bridge for your reference.
Moving to slide 11. Our balance sheet remains strong with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.2 times within our target range of 1 times to 2 times. We ended the quarter with $220 million in cash and $1 billion available under our revolving credit facility. The strong liquidity position provides us with ample flexibility to continue investing in our businesses while also returning capital to shareholders.
We maintain a balanced debt maturity schedule with a weighted average interest rate of 2.9% and a weighted average maturity of 4.8 years. Our EBITDA to interest ratio stands at 19.5 times reflecting our strong cash flow generation and modest debt levels.
Turning to slide 12 and our cash flow performance. The first quarter is typically our lightest cash-generating quarter as we pay down liabilities that grow throughout the year like accrued customer rebates and employee incentive compensation and we temporarily deploy more cash into working capital to prepare for the construction season.
Cash generation this year was lighter than usual due to first quarter payments for higher year-end liabilities as well as the dynamics of the first quarter shipping pattern. January and February shipments were negatively impacted by weather and were followed by a very strong March, which shifted the time and cash provided by normal operating activities compared to the prior year.
This will correct itself in the second quarter, we expect to generate full year free cash flow of approximately $1 billion for 2025, providing us with the financial flexibility to pursue our balanced capital deployment strategy.
Looking ahead to our 2024 outlook on slide 13. We are reaffirming our expectations for mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 50 basis points. While we continue to monitor the potential impacts of tariffs, interest rate movements and consumer behavior, we remain focused on executing Vision 2030 and delivering on our full year guidance.
For CCM, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by continued strength in reroofing activity and the full year benefit from the MTL acquisition. We anticipate expanding margins through price increases, volume leverage and operational efficiencies through the Carlisle Operating System.
The second quarter for CCM will reflect a negative impact of the estimated $15 million of revenue that positively impacted the first quarter from accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases. For CWT, we expect high single-digit revenue growth primarily driven by share gains and the full year impact of the Plasti-Fab and ThermoForm acquisitions.
We anticipate margin improvements from acquisition synergies and the continued focus on the Carlisle Operating System, including the automation initiatives that we mentioned earlier. We expect total corporate and unallocated expenses of approximately $110 million for the full year.
Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $150 million with depreciation and amortization of around $200 million and net interest expense of approximately $50 million. We anticipate our base tax rate to be between 23% and 24%.
Overall, we remain on track to deliver record adjusted EPS for the full year 2025, with growth expected to exceed 10% year-over-year. We also expect to maintain our ROIC above 25% and free cash flow margin above 15%.
Moving to slide 14. I want to emphasize that our Vision 2030 adjusted EPS target of $40-plus remains firmly on track. We have multiple paths to achieve an adjusted EPS growth rate in the mid-teens through 2030, backed by our target organic revenue CAGR of over 5%, consistent free cash flow margin above 15% and disciplined capital deployment.
Based on our Vision 2030 financial targets introduced in late 2023, we expect to generate cumulative free cash flow of more than $6 billion through 2030. This provides significant flexibility for share repurchases and accretive M&A representing a combination of organic and inorganic paths to achieve our EPS target. We have a proven track record of effectively deploying capital to drive shareholder value as evidenced by our robust share repurchase program and successful M&A playbook.
In summary, while the first quarter presented some weather and market-related challenges, our underlying business fundamentals remain strong. We're confident in our ability to navigate the current market environment and continue delivering solid results for our shareholders in 2025 and beyond.
With that, I'll turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.
Dale Koch
Thank you, Kevin. In conclusion, we remain confident in our full year outlook and our progress towards our Vision 2030 goal of $40 of EPS and exceeding 25% ROIC. I would once again like to take this opportunity to thank all of our Carlisle employees for their exceptional efforts and perseverance throughout this complex quarter. Your dedication has been instrumental in delivering resilient results.
And thank you to all of you who are listening as well for your continued support and interest in Carlisle.
That concludes our formal comments. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Tim Wojs, Baird.
Timothy Wojs
Maybe just kind of first on maybe the volume cadence within maybe CCM through the quarter and kind of into April. If you could just give us a little bit of color on that? And kind of what you're hearing from a season perspective from some of the contractors around things like backlog and stuff like that kind of heading into the busier season.
Dale Koch
Tim, thanks. Interesting question. We had our Carlisle market survey. We tried to publish as much as we could about that to let you know what's happening there. I think we look at that. There's a good tone out in the market of optimism despite what we have seen in the press and that our contractor base is pretty optimistic. And the volumes seem to be building.
When -- I was just in -- with about 125 contractors at one of the CDM signature events where they recognize contractors, and I was really surprised at how many people are optimistic about the construction season and the jobs are out there. Arguably, the new construction is a little bit less -- we are less optimistic about that, but I think we know the reasons why there, but the reroofing is strong as we go into the summer. Kevin will hit on the actual volumes a little bit as well.
Kevin Zdimal
January and February started slow. Those were both challenged by weather was the biggest challenge in both those months. But then once we got to March, it really picked up. Part of that was making up for some of that weather days that were lost in the first couple of months of the year. So that picked up in March, and it continues into April. We're seeing favorable order patterns as we are three weeks into the second quarter. So that's been favorable.
Timothy Wojs
Okay. Okay. And then I guess just on the cost basket, has anything changed in terms of the composition of that? I think last quarter, you had kind of outlined that cost in CCM might be, call it, neutral-ish, plus or minus. I guess you've got some sourcing of maybe MDI from China. I guess, is that a headwind. How about like kind of TPO polymers, those types of things. I guess some of the underlying basket has changed at all and kind of what you're expecting now for the full year?
Dale Koch
Well, with respect to tariffs, Tim, we did say there was basically zero impact. And I want to hit tariffs first, and then Kevin can hit the underlying things. When we look at Q2 again, not much impact there. And three and four, it looks like there might not be as much impact there as well, but that's going to be pretty fluid. I think three and four, given when we see some the administration each day on what we're going to do with China and that.
On MDI specifically, there really wasn't any impact in the change in the pricing basket in Q1. That gets locked in for 90 days. We had that, let's call it, an RFP in Q4, and that was for the first quarter. Locked in locked in Q1 -- or excuse me, Q2 at the end of March, slight increases, low single digit. And then Q3 gets locked in, in June.
One of the impacts on MDI that I think if you take a look at those, is that there -- in addition to the tariffs, and one of the major producers of Chinese there. There's also the -- an antidumping case that BASF, I believe, and Dow brought against the imports. So we're getting a little bit of upward pricing pressure. And I would think that the all the industry participants would use that, and we would see some upward pricing pressure as we get through the year. But for us, through Q2, maybe a little impact, low single digits.
Kevin Zdimal
Tim, this is Kevin. On the raw materials for the year, we still expect them exclusive of any further tariff increases. We expect raw materials to be neutral for the year. First half, we'd say slightly positive in the first half of the year and then slightly negative in the second half of the year.
Operator
Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.
Susan Maklari
My first question is you talked about the momentum that you're seeing on a lot of the new products and the innovation that you're bringing to the market in this kind of a macro environment, how are some of your customers thinking about the value that those offerings bring? And is that actually helping or perhaps offsetting any perhaps shift to some of the repair side versus a full replacement of the roof in this kind of an environment?
Dale Koch
I don't think that anybody is delaying a replacement if they need to do. It might be on the margin, but I think with most of our customers, they've been in the queue for a while. We -- I'll go back to the biggest constraint, I think, which is labor. We know labor-constrained. And so I think whether it's in resi or non-resi, if you're in the queue to get a roof done and you've been planning it and expecting it and getting anything arranged for, let's say, many months, if not a year, to delay it or to jump out of the queue, it might put you back so far that it's not -- it's not really viable.
So I think that bleeds into innovation and what we're seeing, and that is we're seeing a lot of people talking about labor efficiency, right? How can you get off the roof faster? How can we get more jobs done with the existing labor. And that manifests itself, and I think helps us to gain share and maintain share with the things we've done. Now arguably, most of our innovation has been around the Carlisle experience and delivering the right product at the right place, right time.
We also have a lot of work in operational improvements in innovation where we're producing, I think, a better product that has less quality defects and is going to be on the roof for longer and it's going to be a less of a hassle to put down. You can look at the 16-foot line, and it's just less labor and also less seams and less opportunity to leak.
And then I think the one we're really working on is this hard core innovation around new products that will be game changing, like, let's say, doubling our value of insulation or something like that, where we can get the same more value with half the content on the roof, which means you need the people to -- that you have on a job site to take it up. But I think right now, people are concentrating on that. They're looking at AI solutions.
I think contractors are looking at ways they can interface with their manufacturers quicker and back office operations. So it's all out there. I think what we talk about most of all is on the product side, and we tend to exact all the improvements we've made on the customer experience side and on the operational side, but they're all meaningful.
Susan Maklari
Yes. Okay. That's really helpful. And then maybe switching to the cash generation of the business. When you think about the changes that have come through in the profile and the businesses that you're in today, how do you think about your ability to generate really strong cash and positive free cash flow, even if the macro does further weaken in there?
I know you reiterated your guide for this year, but can you just talk about some of those levers that you can pull? And how we should think about what this business can do, even if things don't turn out as we currently anticipate.
Kevin Zdimal
Yes. So what we've seen in past years when we've had any dips in revenue, we end up having really good cash flow years. If you go back, you can go back to 2008 and see when the dip in the revenue was then and we had excellent cash flow generation, a lot of it because we're bringing down working capital and get that benefit. So not something we're looking to have happened. But if it did happen, that's where we're pretty strong on the cash flow side.
Our business hasn't changed that much from 2008 now when you take out nonbuilding products companies. So just talking about where we are today with building products, we're confident that we'll be able to generate this positive cash flow this year.
We're looking at they have 15% of sales, so about $1 billion of free cash flow and really don't have concerns on that even if there was that dip in revenue because of what we can do on the working capital side. Longer term when we look at Vision 2030. So through that period, we're expecting to generate $6 billion of free cash flow between now and then.
Operator
Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.
Bryan Blair
You mentioned pricing being roughly neutral for Q2 and full year cost being neutral-ish given our reads a bit more accommodated than that. I'm just curious how team is thinking about Q2 price cost and then the phasing for the full year.
Kevin Zdimal
Yes. As we look at Q2, we think both price and cost will basically be neutral and then second half of the year consistent with what we're thinking on our year-end call is that we see pricing up low single digits in the second half of the year. And that -- and with the raw material costs being neutral, we're seeing a positive 1% on the year from price cost.
Bryan Blair
Okay. Fair enough. MTL updates have been very consistently positive. We knew that was a really good asset that you guys acquired and clearly synergistic with your metals platform, with the updates have been, I guess, exceedingly positive.
Just curious if you're willing to speak to revenue run rates, current margin where you now see that business over the next couple of years in terms of financial contribution. And then a quick follow-up just how the M&A pipeline is looking given the uncertainty of the macro backdrop, how that is -- play that for that?
Dale Koch
Yes. Brian, I'll try to give you the MTL thing. Extremely pleased with the MTL team without the integration went. Our team that worked on the integration, as you know, I think the last couple of weeks -- we've exceeded our expectations, our deal model expectations. MTL is no different.
But the team there have a lot of confidence in the team. Tony -- who ran MTL before is taking over the metal business. So we had that change. We've had some people from within Carlisle, some experts in both the market side, the customer service side and operations side come in and augment Tony's already good team.
So we're doing things like spreading COS into the culture, and it's being well received. We've got a safety culture that we take great pride in, and you know the results there. I think we're in the upper probably 15%, 10% of manufacturing companies, and we're spreading that in there, again, well received.
What's been really need to see is the collaboration. We've got a couple of projects recently that Tony's team has led where they're bringing in other Carlisle products, both Henry and CCM products, and we're putting packages together that are getting into the specification and are creating that solution that we talk so much about that's going to give us additional stickiness, give us some probably better margin profiles, new customers. So that's going well.
We're also seeing MTL continually increase their integration with CCM. So one of the things we did not have in our portfolio is what we would put on our roots for CCM, the edge metal was well, it might have been MTL, but it wasn't ours. Now MTL is working with CCM to get that in the spec. We're making good progress on that.
Obviously, we can do it pretty easily with the architect. We have to make sure our contractors are pulled along as well, and it works for them, but making great strides in there. The MTL team continues to innovate. That was one of the big strengths of MTL was they had something like 30-plus patents, which we haven't seen in the metal business before. So that's going well.
And we're leveraging our Peterson and Drexel metal businesses that started this off. Drexel Metals business started it all off a couple of years ago. And so things are good. I would imagine we will continue to expand that portfolio. There are many other opportunities in architectural metals that we can -- especially on the commercial side of the side, the -- metal building panels, roofing, things like that, that I think Tony and the team will continue to expand in and we'll leverage both the Henry business and the CCM business to continue to further that.
The M&A pipeline has been good. We're getting -- we had, I would say, looks at deals and some at various stages, but I would say that the uncertainty created by some of the actions taken over the last few months has made it a little bit more difficult to make things progress.
I think there's obviously some disconnect there on risk that buyers probably don't want to include in their offer or may reduce it that sellers don't want to have happen. So that happens. And then there's just the whole idea of how do you project your returns going out if indeed tariffs stay in place or they don't stay in place.
So when we look at these deal models, I think it's hard for the two parties to get together. And I would expect, though, that when this stuff gets resolved, which it will. We're confident of that. We get some certainty. A lot of these deals will come to market there.
Bryan Blair
Yes. Very helpful color on MTL. And all on the deal environment and understood on that front.
Operator
Garik Shmois, Loop Capital Markets.
Garik Shmois
Just wanted to follow up on the comment around the $15 million of pre-buying that you saw in the first quarter. I just wanted to get your observation of whether or not you consider that normal level of prebuying? Or are you seeing anything unusual just given the strength in March and April to far? And then maybe some color on how inventories are distribution.
Dale Koch
I would say the pre-buy is really related to -- I mean, isolated to Canada for the most part. I'm sure there's somebody could find, there's $1 somewhere that wasn't. But most of it was Canada. And I think that the impact was pretty minimal. I mean we had no issue supplying it.
We understood the rationale for doing it. I don't think it will be a meaningful impact as we go forward. It might be a little bit of an impact couple of pennies or something in Q2, but it's not going to disturb anything happening in a major way.
Yes. I can't remember your -- second part of your question. I apologize. You asked me about...?
Garik Shmois
Yes, it was just on inventories.
Dale Koch
Yes, of course. Yes. inventories, I mean, we said it in our current market survey, we thought inventories were still fairly light. That had been an assumption we had coming into the year. I think one of the things we communicated was that if inventory stayed light and we had a fairly good roofing season, it would be beneficial to pricing and some other things as well.
And in fact, we were going to build a bit of inventory going into the seats and to make sure we could address we thought was going to be a pretty decent season, which is turning out as we -- March and April are turning out to be pretty good.
So I would say there's still some lightness of inventory in the channel, is the interest rates and some uncertainty as well as the big thing that Bill has really talked about at least as its impact on inventories, the QXO deal in Beacon. Beacon is a major distributor in the country, and I can't imagine that during lead up to an acquisition, you're building inventory, I think you're trying to probably keep it as clean as you can and then we'll see what happens after the deal closes.
But I would say, in general, inventory is probably where it was in the first quarter to quarter and people are wary and they're thinking about the carrying cost and working capital associated with higher levels of inventory. And certainly, you don't want to sit on if the season doesn't turn out to be what you thought it was.
Garik Shmois
Okay. That's super helpful. Just my follow-up question is just on the cost basket, specifically related to non-North America costs and MDI specifically -- just we're getting to a ton of questions on MDI. And I'm just wondering how you're thinking about sourcing and if you're looking to move your supplier base away from China and just kind of any mitigation efforts that you're planning on coming in place?
Dale Koch
Yes, I don't think our strategy is changing much. I mean we've always had a pretty, I would say, competitive RFP process. Our purchasing team does a great job. We've been a big supply -- our big -- excuse me, purchaser of MDI for a long time. We have good relationships with all the major manufacturers.
They do move around from time to time. But I would also say you get in formulation embedded in what you're producing in the factory and there is some stickiness there that you're not are inclined to change. I mean we can't change and we do when we need to, but I think the team is a good job of balancing that.
So as I explained earlier, really, because we're doing this in 90-day blocks, for us, I'd say with what we're seeing in terms of potential price increases, we'll probably stick to our strategy. But that doesn't mean that if things change, we won't take action. We always think of these things in a couple of ways, right, probably three ways. When you have this happen, is it temporary? Do you pass it through or do; two not do anything, just absorb it a margin; or three, do you make a transition to a new supplier and move it around.
And so we have those options, and I think we're in a good position. Like I said, I think our team has always done a good job of keeping us in supply of MDI, not having any shortages. We're able to fulfill our obligations to our customers and at the same time, producing what I think is probably the -- we probably buy one of the lowest costs in the industry.
Operator
Adam Baumgarten, Zelman & Associates.
Adam Baumgarten
Just on the maintained guidance for the year, just have implied a decent step up on a year-over-year basis for revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion to get to that target. I guess, how much visibility do you have to that improvement? And maybe more specifically on the CWT organic growth and just margins across both businesses?
Kevin Zdimal
Yes. As we look at the range we put out there, I mean, we do mid-single-digit revenue growth, approximately 50 basis points of improvement on EBITDA as we went into the year, we were probably on the higher end of those ranges and now we're probably at the lower end of those ranges, but we're still confident in those numbers overall as we look at the individual businesses, yet we see CCM for sure, at that 50 basis points of improvement, they do need the pricing in the second half of the year to happen CWT.
We think we'll be back in that 22% range starting in Q2 and through the balance of the year. So showing improvement in that business as well for the full year. And then overall, on a consolidated basis, looking at that 50 basis points of improvement.
Operator
David McGregor, Longbow Research.
David MacGregor
Just to stay on that last question -- I hope everything is going well with you guys. I want to stay on that last question. And specifically with respect to CWT, you're guiding to up high single digits. When we talked last quarter's call, you were expecting that residential markets which show moderate and half recovery. Is that still the expectation or what's changing in terms of the composition of the expectations that leave the guidance change?
Kevin Zdimal
Yes. We look at the business overall, we have new first half of the year, we would have new on the resi side, down mid-single digits second half of your obviously much harder to predict on it, flat to up low single digits overall, down low single digits for the new resi R&R. When we look at that on the resi side, down the single digits first half of the year. We have in the second half of the year to low single digits, which makes it flat for the year.
So R&R looking flat, new being down. And as we look at commercial, on the reroofing side on commercial is up mid-single digits for the full year, each of the quarters. And then on commercial, we have that down low single digits first half of the year and up low singles in the second half of the year is flat for the year.
Dale Koch
And David, I think there's a couple of other things that should help us as we move through the year. Ultra Touch, which we've been talking about, continues to expand its presence resignation and our relationship with the major retailer. We have some other things, VP Tech that's taking hold. All these are labor reducing and more I would call efficient from an ROIC perspective. that's been good.
We continue to make some channel gains as the team expanded EPS, expanded polystyrene footprint. We've got obviously the addition of Plasti-Fab and Thermoform that once we get through the integration, they should pick up speed. And they have some sales synergies there, some things in Canada that Glass team can work on. I hopefully show some results as the US team helps them with their relationships up there.
So we've got some good things there. Weather is another one. Mehul educates Kevin and I on how dry weather is great for CCM, but it may not be great for roof coatings, where you need rainy weather for people to identify that they have a roof leakage problem on the resi side and then they had to one of the major pick up the Henry product. And we know we've had some dry weather. Obviously, it's been helping CCM but it hasn't been helping CWT on that side.
And we also think that when there's that extended period, it usually takes about four to six months for that to recover, which -- with what we see and puts us into that second half. So there are some positives in the second half, and then we have the normal things we're doing around automation in the factories we've got projects like the Kingman project I talked about, that's a full factory automation project underway right now that will also have some impact on margins.
So Yes, we're a little bit more positive as go along. It's been three years, I think, since we've had Henry and the team has come in and we continue to find things for them to work on. And even they're being pulled down pretty remarkably in a lot of ways with negative energy in the resi markets.
The team is pretty resilient. They keep making a lot of progress on new product development and other things. So hopefully, their initiatives will pay off and we think they gain momentum through the year.
David MacGregor
Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess a follow-up question. I was hoping within the context of that mid-single-digit growth guide that you're providing for the year. you could just talk about membrane versus polyiso and what you're seeing in terms of market dynamics and how you're expecting each of those to contribute to that mid-single-digit number.
Kevin Zdimal
Yes. We don't really break that out, David, going through it. I mean we do Polyhas been growing faster than the membrane has just from the more energy-efficient buildings and putting more Poly, so on each of the jobs, and that's when we look at price per square foot on a content for each of our jobs. That's been going up, and that's really been driven by a polyiso piece of it, but breaking out the individual revenue growth numbers. We haven't put that part out.
David MacGregor
[There's anyway] you could talk about market conditions there? Any kind of general commentary?
Dale Koch
General commentary on the different product categories. Yes. I mean I think if we go through the big ones, at least, in CCM. Mehul can talk on CWT. But I mean in CCM and our product categories you look at EPDM. I still think EPDM is a great solution. We're seeing that despite what people talked about years ago that EPDM was going to be replaced by PVC and poly and TPO. We haven't seen that. We've seen EPDM continue to have a real submarket presence. And in fact, I would just say we've seen some positive growth there here in Q1.
TPO continues to be a big solution of choice for people. It's reflective. We get a lot of positive share and gains against modified (technical difficulty) in the south where you get the reflectivity and obviously, the insulation properties from the polysome. Kevin mentioned how polyiso is growing.
PBC has been a nice grower for us. It serves a certain part of the market. When we look at our Architectural Metals business, again, that is growing at a nice clip and people like the recyclability of metal, the ability, the ability to use colors, the ability to produce a different architecture look to the to the business.
So I think on the CCM side, it's really been a positive story in all the categories. And our job here on innovation is continue to innovate and add to that category. I think what we really like to see is in five years, we have another roofing membrane we can talk about with some pretty remarkable benefits, whether they be labor savings or energy efficiency.
And obviously, polyiso is something that is a great insulated product, but we'd like to see another product category that perhaps has, let's say, 2 times the value of polyisone has some other benefits, whether it's enhance flame retardancy or something like that. So do you want to talk a little bit about product categories in --
The same secular drivers that Chris went over around energy of labor savings. So as you guys know, -- CWT broad portfolio.
David MacGregor
I think all this -- We're just trying to get -- yes, I think we got all this. We're just trying to get some color on market conditions and dynamics. I think we understand the big picture.
Dale Koch
Yes. I think, David, I think we've been pretty clear about the market dynamics. I mean we referenced the fact that reroofing continues to do well. We were at the contractor event. I mentioned that.
Our Carlisle market survey continue to show positives. I mean really, in resi markets, I mean, you know what it is that remodeling or building new houses, it's a pretty direct correlation between how market conditions are. And I think that's been pretty well stated.
But if you have something specific, and I'm sorry, I took you on a wild use case there. But if you have something really specific you want to answer, we could try to answer it, I would say we're a little bit hesitant to give out what we consider confidential information considering we've had some talk of competitors coming to market from places like overseas and that. So we are a little bit more guarded on some of these numbers, but down to specific thing in -- .
David MacGregor
In that case, maybe I'll take it up with you offline. But maybe just last quick question. Could you just talk about the cadence on the tax line over the balance of the year to get to the '23, '24?
Dale Koch
Pretty steady throughout the year. I wouldn't say it'd be anything different than the first quarter that continue through each of the next three quarters.
Operator
Keith Hughes, Truist.
Keith Hughes
What was the pricing number in the CWT segment in the first quarter?
Kevin Zdimal
It was down a bit -- just about 1%.
Keith Hughes
Just about 1%. Was that coming specifically out of spray foam or what's with product in there?
Dale Koch
You're spot on. It is the spray foam product line that is down in the first quarter.
Keith Hughes
Okay. There's a lot of price increases there, particularly with increases in the fire retardant, I guess, do you think that will turn back around positive in the second quarter? Or will it take more in the second half? What's your view?
Dale Koch
I think on the ATO that we've got, I think we'll continue to see it into the second quarter. I think we'll also continue to see the fasteners and plates that we mentioned that those were a significant industry impact. That was across the board for everybody. I think that's putting on a roof, at least our type of roof. And then yes, so that will go through to the second quarter.
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call over to Chris Koch for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Dale Koch
Well, thank you, and thanks, everybody, on this first quarter earnings call. We really appreciate all the questions. Hopefully, we've provided substantial details to help with the understanding of Carlisle. We again thank you for your participation and look forward to speaking to you on the next earnings call. Thanks very much.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.