According to a report by Mordor Intelligence, the luxury goods market has a size of $103.10 billion as of 2024. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.07% and reach $145.08 billion by 2029. Another study by Global Market Insights published on Yahoo! Finance shows that the luxury packaging market was valued at $17.2 billion in 2023. It is also anticipated to grow and reach $25.8 billion by the end of 2032.
Some of the primary reasons behind this growth include a rise in disposable incomes and wealth in various regions across the globe, especially in emerging markets such as India and China. In addition, younger customers such as millennials and Gen Z are entering the luxury market, with the rise of influencer marketing and social media further increasing the desirability of these products.
However, analysts expect 2025 to be a challenging year for the luxury sector. The personal luxury goods market declined for the first time since 2008, excluding 2020 due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the Fall 2024 Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods World Wide Market Study, the market fell from a historic high of $387 billion in 2023 to around $381 billion. However, Bain emphasized the “long-term solid fundamentals” of the industry, saying that the luxury market “can still return to solid growth.”
Consumer spending in the personal luxury goods market is affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowdown in China, according to Bain & Company’s annual luxury report. Dwindling customer loyalty and higher costs are resulting in consumers steering clear of high-end brands in 2024, slashing company profits. These consumer spending patterns are anticipated to shrink the sector by an estimated 2% over the full-year period. The report also showed that the overall luxury spending is expected to remain flat year-over-year in 2024, standing at around $1.59 billion even with other segments, such as travel, fine wine, and autos, recording modest growth.
However, the condition is not all bleak. We discussed consumer spending and the luxury market in a recently published article on the Top 12 Luxury Stocks According to Hedge Funds. Here is an excerpt from the article:
On December 17, Simeon Siegel, BMO Capital Markets senior analyst for retail and e-commerce, appeared on CNBC to discuss the state of the consumer in the current holiday shopping season. He said that the US consumer is overly resilient. In the current scenario, the market is seeing winners grow and laggers fall behind, which is how it should be. This trend goes opposite to market dynamics in COVID-19 when every company grew. Siegel was further of the view that the consumers are still spending. For better and for worse, consumers are scared of not having something under the Christmas tree this year.
Our Methodology
We sifted through stock screeners, online rankings, and ETFs to compile a list of 20 luxury clothing stocks. We then selected the top 12 most popular stocks among elite hedge funds as of Q3 2024. We sourced the hedge fund sentiment data from Insider Monkey’s database. The list is sorted in ascending order of hedge fund sentiment.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A customer trying on a sports jacket in-store, showcasing the company's sportswear range.
PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) is a luxury fashion company that operates Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands. The company delivered on its revenue guidance in fiscal Q3 2024 primarily due to a disciplined execution of its brand-building growth plan, which it calls the PVH+ plan.
Although revenue for fiscal Q3 2024 was down by 5% compared to last year, the company exceeded its guidance primarily due to the timing of wholesale shipments in Europe and an acceleration of expense efficiencies. It delivered an operating margin of 10.5%, surpassing analyst estimates. This was because higher gross margins and strong expense management offset the leverage loss that occurred due to a decrease in the company’s revenue.
Analysts believe that the company has the potential to boost its brand over the long term by enhancing its marketing efforts and improving its designs. Its new management team is also anticipated to prove favorable for the company. Analysts estimate PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) to raise its earnings per share (EPS) to $11.71 in 2025 from $10.68 in 2024. Overall, PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) is positioning its brands for long-term, increasingly profitable sales growth. It takes the eighth spot on our list of the top luxury clothing stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value Fund stated the following regarding PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) is an apparel company that owns the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands globally. Most of PVH’s earnings come from Europe, where the Tommy and Calvin brands are considered “almost luxury” and PVH has generally recorded high single-digit organic growth with demonstrated pricing power during the preceding decade. CEO Stefan Larsson has done an excellent job revitalizing the company and improving margins at PVH’s moribund US operations. Over the past year, PVH and our other apparel companies have performed well as the worst fears for consumer spending didn’t play out. PVH has become a top five holding for us and our apparel holdings (PVH, GIII, LEVI and DECK) now make up almost 10% of the portfolio. On April 2, post quarter end, PVH announced fiscal 23Q4 results where they missed on earnings guidance for the coming year. The stock is down ~20% from its high but now trades at less than ten times forward earnings. We have held our position.”
Overall, PVH ranks 8th on our list of the top 12 luxury clothing stocks to buy according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of PVH, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PVH but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
