Putin's invasion of Ukraine 'is really splitting Russian society,' expert explains
Russian President Vladimir Putin owns the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, one expert explained, and that means that the totalitarian leader will also own what comes next.
"This was a decision that was taken by a single individual in consultation with maybe a half dozen members of his national security council," Timothy Frye, professor of post-Soviet foreign policy at Columbia University, told Yahoo Finance (video above). "So there's very little elite buy-in. And the Russian public has always been skittish about conflict with Ukraine and is perfectly willing to recognize Ukrainian sovereignty. The public opinion is very clear on that question."
Frye added that in response to relatively few people besides Putin wanting to invade Ukraine, "what we've seen is a great deal of repression within Russia, both of the mass public and a real attempt to silence elite opinion. And that's a very difficult thing to do in a country with as diverse interest as Russia has."
'This invasion is really splitting Russian society'
Frye, author of "Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin's Russia," added that this doesn't mean that Putin could easily be overthrown — after all, "it's really difficult to overthrow an autocrat." Instead, Russia experts are watching to see if significant cracks emerge in support for Putin from elites and the public.
"The information environment of Russia is really still controlled by the Russian state, even as lots of videos are getting through," Frye explained. "And it's really unclear what direction the kind of battle of hearts and minds are going to go. When your country is involved in a war, patriotic elements within the country often rise up. So I think this invasion is really splitting Russian society between those who favor a view of fortress Russia versus those who want to bring Russia into the 21st century. And it's really unclear which side is going to win out."
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, the West swiftly moved to punish Putin's regime by freezing Russian assets, cutting off some of the country’s banks from the SWIFT messaging system, sanctioning individual Russian oligarchs, and other measures. Various prominent companies also distanced themselves from Russia. Domestically, thousands of Russians have been arrested for protesting the war.
In terms of the economic pain, Frye noted that "the Russian economy is already at the threat of seizing up. The sanctions on the central bank are really unprecedented. And they're much greater than I think anyone expected, certainly than Vladimir Putin expected."