We expect property and casualty insurer Progressive Corp. PGR to beat expectations when it reports fourth quarter and full-year 2016 results on Jan 25, before the market opens.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Progressive has the right combination of two key ingredients to beat estimates.
Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +1.96%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of 52 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5 cents. The positive ESP is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Progressive carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), 2 or 3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating on earnings. The combination of Progressive’s Zacks Rank #2 and +1.96% Earnings ESP makes us reasonably confident of an earnings beat.
Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.
What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?
Progressive’s premiums in the fourth quarter are likely has have increased due to improved policies in force at both Personal and Commercial Line. The company’s property business is also expected to have gained pace. Higher premiums are expected to have driven revenues. Investment income is also likely to have increased as the company registered higher investment income in October, November and December.
Competitive pricing and a diversified product portfolio should result in a solid retention ratio.
Share repurchases should have boosted the bottom line.
With respect to earnings trend, the company delivered positive surprises in two of the last four quarters, but with an average negative surprise of 0.95%.
The stock is trending north over the last few days and is currently trading at $36.54. We expect the release to lead to further stock movement.
Progressive Corporation (The) Price and EPS Surprise
Progressive Corporation (The) Price and EPS Surprise | Progressive Corporation (The) Quote
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are property and casualty insurers that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Everest Re Group Ltd. RE, which is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Jan 26, has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.