Progressive Democrats lost bigly in 2020

Joe Biden has now won a clean victory over Donald Trump. But he’ll take office next January with weak momentum, major barriers to governing and a large faction of his Democratic party isolated and angry.

Democrats hoped for a “blue wave” in 2020 that would put Biden in the White House, shift control of the Senate to Democrats and enlarge the Democratic majority in the House. Democrats would have had full control of legislation, Senate approval of judges and Cabinet officials, and the regulatory machinery of the executive branch.

Instead of a blue wave, however, Republicans will probably maintain a thin margin of control in the Senate. That will come down to two Senate runoffs in Georgia, where incumbent Republicans Senators David Purdue and Kelly Loefler outpolled their Democratic challengers but didn’t meet the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. If Republicans win just one of those, they’ll control the Senate. If Democrats win both, the Senate will tied and the new Vice President Kamala Harris will cast a tiebreaking vote, giving Dems the slightest possible edge.

Republicans are favored to win at least one of those seats. And any majority will make it extremely hard for Democrats to pass new programs such as Biden’s plans for health care, affordable housing, green energy, expanded education or criminal justice reform. This will be especially bitter for the most left-leaning “progressive” Democrats who support Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They campaigned enthusiastically for the more moderate Biden in the general election hoping he’d move to the left once elected. But there’s now no reason for Biden to move left, because he’d be pushing programs that alienate some of the centrists who voted for him yet have no chance of becoming law.

Republican Senate candidate Sen. Mitch McConnell, center, talks with a staff member as they gather around to watch the results of his reelection campaign in Louisville, Ky., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020. McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, stands next to him. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
Republican Senate candidate Sen. Mitch McConnell, center, talks with a staff member as they gather around to watch the results of his reelection campaign in Louisville, Ky., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020. McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, stands next to him. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

The most notable casualty of split government may be a fourth coronavirus stimulus plan. Had Democrats gained control of both houses, they probably would have passed a bill at least as large as the $2.3 trillion package the House passed in May. But Senate Republicans only want about $500 billion in new stimulus, and nobody can bulldoze them as long as they maintain a majority. The current Congress could pass a modest stimulus bill by January, with little hope for a follow-up next year unless Democrats win those two Georgia seats.

Handicapped by the Senate

Biden, like any president, will still have the considerable power of the executive branch at his disposal, and perhaps follow Trump’s example of governing by executive order. But the Republican Senate could handicap him there, as well. Trump took office with a Senate controlled by the same party and happy to confirm most of his appointees. Biden would take office with Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell eager to gum up his presidency, as he did for Barack Obama from 2015 to 2017.