Pre-market futures have remained in the green following a key inflation report this morning ahead of the open. The Dow leads the way, +170 points — which has plenty to do with double-digit gains from Salesforce (CRM) yesterday afternoon — while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, fresh off another all-time closing high Tuesday, are up +18 points and +145 points, respectively.

ADP Reaches 146K: Smaller than Expected; Manufacturing -26K

This morning, Jobs Week continues with the release of monthly private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP). The headline figure of 146K new jobs filled in the private sector for November was notably shy of the 163K expected by analysts. It also comes in lower than the downwardly revised 184K for the prior month.

The 140K jobs filled in the Services sector demonstrates a pretty strong imbalance between it and Goods-producing, which brought only 6K new hires last month. Education led the way at +50K, Construction +30K, Trade/Transportation/Utilities +28K and Professional/Business Services +18K. Manufacturing, on the other hand, shed -26K positions in November, another hard reality for an already struggling sector of the economy.

By size of company, large firms (over 500 employees) led the way — enjoying its built-in advantages of offering broader healthcare packages, stock options, etc. Medium-sized companies (between 50-499 employees) brought in +42K new private-sector jobs last month, while small businesses lost -17K.

One key metric distinctive to the ADP report is the gap between “Job Stayers” (those who remain in their current positions) versus “Job Changers” (those who find jobs elsewhere. Stayers in November grew wages, on average, by +4.8%, while Changers gained +7.2%. The important part here is on the Stayers side: this is the first report in two years where Stayers wage growth has ticked up month over month. This suggests we may be finding a bottom on wages, which obviously is well above the Fed’s optimum rate of inflation (+2%).

What to Expect from the Fed Based on ADP Data

The main employment report doesn’t hit the tape until Friday morning: non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That number is currently expected to come in at +214K, representing a big bounce-back from the hurricane-altered +12K reported for October. But if BLS figures follow ADP’s results today, we may see that number lower than expected.

This wouldn’t be the end of the world. While we do see a notable cooling off in the labor market, the moves month over month remain relatively gradual, for the most part. (That said, another 12K from BLS Friday might sound some alarm bells.) Either way, however, it’s unlikely the Fed’s pending interest rate cut of 25 basis points two weeks from today is at risk.