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The ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday shows that U.S. private payrolls rose by 146,000 in November, less than the 150,000 gain analysts had projected. From October's report which was adjusted upward to 184,000 jobs, the figure shows a deceleration. Designed in cooperation with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, the paper comes before the more general nonfarm payrolls release by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday. Although ADP data usually understates private payroll growth, the November estimate shows modest hiring activity among companies including Boeing and other aerospace companies in the face of prior labor strikes.
Following October's net drop of 28,000 jobs, economists predict a comeback in job creation for November and a 200,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls. From 4.1%, the unemployment rate is predicted to grow just marginally to 4.2%. With the S&P 500 up 27% year-to-date and rising around 14.5% over the past six months, the strength of the labor market is playing against the background of a robust larger economy.
Though labor market data points show pockets of difficulty, these advances represent investor hope connected to better economic conditions. With hiring patterns closely watched for clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, private payrolls remain a major gauge of economic condition.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.