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Walgreens is heading down a risky path

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Less than a decade ago, Walgreens was America’s largest drugstore chain. - Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Less than a decade ago, Walgreens was America’s largest drugstore chain. - Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Walgreens has been attempting a financial turnaround for years, and now it says it’s found a new path to finish it. But if history is any guide, its path is more likely to lead to its eventual demise than long-term success.

Walgreens Boots Alliance, which owns drugstores in both the United States as well as the United Kingdom, Ireland, Mexico and Thailand, announced last week that it would be ending a century as a publicly traded company, and would be sold to Sycamore Partners, a private equity firm.

Less than a decade ago it was America’s largest drugstore chain, and its stock was successful enough to replace iconic conglomerate General Electric in the Dow Jones industrial average, a collection of 30 companies selected for their importance to the economy and the overall market.

But its shares have lost 83% of their value since that day, with a 71% plunge coming in just the last four years. And it would have lost more than that, if it wasn’t for investors looking ahead to the sale to Sycamore, which lifted shares more than 7% in Friday trading.

Sycamore and Walgreens have both insisted the purchase will allow for the company, which has already closed many of its stores, to complete the turnaround more quickly.

“While we are making progress against our ambitious turnaround strategy, meaningful value creation will take time, focus and change that is better managed as a private company,” said Walgreens CEO Tim Wentworth. “Sycamore will provide us with the expertise and experience of a partner with a strong track record of successful retail turnarounds.”

But despite the promise, retail’s graveyard is full of the bones of many once-dominant retailers who closed up shop after being bought by private equity firms. The list includes Toys R Us, Sports Authority and RadioShack — all once leaders in their fields. Even some companies that survived being taken private that survived, such as Aeropostale, did so only after a trip through bankruptcy court.

Not all retailers taken private have failed. Some, such as Sycamore-owned Staples, continue to do well. But there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that this is the right solution, said Mark Cohen, the former head of retail studies at Columbia Business School.

“Intellectually it sounds like a good idea to relieve a company of the quarter-to-quarter need to satisfy shareholders and instead focus on long-term success,” said Cohen. “But from a historical point of view, most of these deals result in the company circling the drain.”

Milk a company, then break it up

The private equity business model often relies upon forcing the company to take on massive amounts of debt to give the greatest possible return to the private equity firm, with the long-term survival of the business often not a priority. The debt is often used to pay “special dividends” to the firm itself to cover the initial purchase price, as well as heavy “management fees” placed on the company, to be paid to the private equity firm. Many times brick-and-mortar retail chains have been forced to sell off the buildings that house their stores and pay rents that they can’t afford to new owners, leading to even more store closings and layoffs.