This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
EUR/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
-EUR/USD resumed its decline late last week and broke under key Gann support in the 1.3010 area to touch its lowest level since mid-December
- Focus is still lower, but a close under 1.3010 is really needed to setup a deeper decline towards a cluster of various retracements from last year’s key lows just under 1.2900
- Shorter-term focused time cycle analysis is positive on the pair for a couple more days, but a major turn window seen next month
- A convergence of various Gann fan lines from the low recorded last November around 1.3070 is immediate resistance
- A Fibonacci confluence near 1.3165 is critical, however, and only strength over this area signals the start of a more important trend reversal
Strategy: Stay short with a stop just over 1.3170.
NZD/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- The decline in NZD/USD from the 8530 78.6% retracement of the 2011 range remains in force
- Multiple closes under the .8250 third square root progression from the year-to-date high keeps our focus lower
- A minor retracement from the December low around .8195 is immediate support and a break under this level needed to prompt a test of a convergence of several key Gan and Fibonacci supports near .8160
-Near-term focused time cycle analysis suggests strength should be seen in the pair over the next couple of days
-Gann progression at .8250 is now resistance, but only strength over a retracement cluster near .8300 undermines the immediate negative tone in the pair
Strategy: We are still short Kiwi. Tighten stop to just over .8300. That should be far enough away to sustain our position through the strength the cycles say could be seen over the next couple of days.
EUR/GBP:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/GBP is in consolidation mode since failing just above a confluence of various long-term retracements in the .8800 area
- While over the 61.8% retracement of the February range in the .8585 area our bias is higher
- However, strength (ideally on a closing basis) over the .8720 second square root progression from the year-to-date high is really required to signal the start of something more meaningful on the upside