This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
USD/JPY:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
-USD/JPY broke lower from is multi-day consolidation to trade at its lowest level in over a month on Tuesday
- Support has been found from just below the 92.80 4th square root progression of the year-to-date high, but while below the 94.15 38% retracement of the March-February decline our bias is lower
-The 92.80 level is now a key near-term pivot with weakness under this level needed to setup another leg lower
-Near-term focused cyclical studies indicate a turn window is in effect over the next couple of days, but late this week is bigger picture Pi cycle relationship related to the 2011 low which could overshadow
- A clear break over 94.15 will turn us positive on the exchange rate
Strategy: A lot has happened since our last update. Sold the break of 93.50. Roundtrip from 92.55 saw us eke out a small gain on half and scratch on the rest. Looking to get long over the next few days if 94.15 gets taken out.
USD/CAD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD broke lower on Tuesday after several days of consolidation above a key Gann/Fibonacci confluence in the 1.0120/40 area
- We remain cautiously negative on Funds as a clear break of 1.0120 is needed to confirm the integrity of the most recent decline and open the way for a more important leg lower towards 1.0090 and beyond
-A medium-term turn window remains in effect for another day or so and a change in trend remains possible during this time
- The 50% retracement of the 2011 range in the 1.0145 area is immediate resistance
-However, strength over a convergence of several minor and major retracements between 1.0170/85is needed to shift our bias higher
Strategy: Took profit on our remaining short position from 1.0235 when 1.0140 was given. We are wary of change in trend over the next day or so. Will look to get long if Funds can rebound from this support zone.
AUD/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD has recovered over the past couple of days after finding support near the 1.0390 convergence of the 1x1 Gann angle from year-to-date closing low and the 1st square root progression from the last month’s high