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Talking Points

• EUR/USD approaching yearly low

• GOLD holds above key Fibonacci level

• USD/CAD breakout hopes hinge on the BoC

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD cracked Gann support at 1.1155 this morning to fall within a few pips of the yearly low

• Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.1270

• A close under 1.1100 is needed to confirm that a new leg lower is underway

• A minor turn window is seen today/Thursday

• A close above 1.1270 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1270

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• GOLD continues to consolidate above the 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range in the 1196 area

• Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1224

• A close under 1196 is needed to set up the next extension lower in the metal

• An important turn window is seen around the middle of next week

• A close above 1224 would turn us positive on the metal

GOLD Strategy: Square

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

We have been watching the contracting range in USD/CAD very closely over the past week or so. Will today be the day that we finally get some directional clarity? With five legs completed within the consolidation the exchange rate looks finally ready for a move. Monday’s close above the internal trendline connecting the January-February highs was a clear technical positive, but a push through 1.2565 is really needed to set off a more meaningful extension higher and help confirm the breakout from the ‘pennant’ pattern. Weakness under 1.2430 would raise some red flags about a possible false pattern breakout post the Bank of Canada decision, but only a move under 1.2385 would set this negative scenario into motion.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.