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Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the world's largest company by market capitalization, so it takes a lot for companies to surpass it in terms of valuation. However, I think that it's possible. The number of companies in a position to pass Apple is relatively few, based solely on Apple's sheer $3.6 trillion valuation. However, I think that three companies are primed to do it.
These three are Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL). This trio should come as no surprise, as they are the second-, third-, and fifth-largest companies by market cap in the world.
So, how will this trio surpass Apple in five years? Simple! Growth.
Apple's lack of growth opened the door for other companies
Apple hasn't really grown over the past three years. Just take a look at this chart, which shows how dead the company's financials have been.
This is a huge problem for Apple, and it needs to figure something out; otherwise, this anemic growth could cause it to give up its market leadership position. However, FY 2025 doesn't look like it will bring investors much relief. An average of 38 Wall Street analysts project Apple's revenue will grow 4.6% this year. That's more of the same performance, and it opens the door for these other three companies to surpass Apple over the next five years.
Standard growth rates will allow this trio to surpass Apple in five years
Microsoft and Alphabet consistently posted double-digit growth for multiple consecutive years, and the next two years look no different. Wall Street analysts see the following growth projections:
Company | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
---|---|---|
Microsoft | 13% | 14% |
Alphabet | 11% | 11% |
Data source: Yahoo! Finance. Note: Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30.
These projections are pretty consistent with the historical performance of both businesses, so we'll give Microsoft a 13% revenue growth rate and Alphabet an 11% revenue growth rate for our calculations. Over the next five years, this is what their revenue would look like if they continued those growth rates (assuming we give Apple a 5% revenue growth rate).
Company | 2029 Projected Revenue |
---|---|
Apple | $505 billion |
Microsoft | $645 billion |
Alphabet | $441 billion |
Data source: YCharts.
However, we're not done with these figures yet, as we need to multiply them by their profit margins to understand what profits each company will generate in five years.
Company | 2029 Projected Profits |
---|---|
Apple | $123 billion |
Microsoft | $228 billion |
Alphabet | $126 billion |
Data source: YCharts.
So, after five years, Microsoft and Alphabet will outperform Apple in terms of profit production. This could be enough of a catalyst to propel both of them to be valued at a higher level than Apple.