It's hard to think of a business with more iconic brands than PepsiCo. Not only does it own its namesake Pepsi brand, which was launched under the Pepsi-Cola name in 1898, but it also owns big-name brands such as Mountain Dew, Lay's potato chips, Gatorade, Doritos, Tostitos, Quaker Oats, and more.
Pepsi has been in business for more than a century and has a market capitalization surpassing $200 billion. For its part, coffee giant Starbucks hasn't been in business quite as long -- it opened its doors in 1971. Therefore, it's not surprising that Starbucks is only worth about half of what Pepsi is worth. But that market valuation of just over $100 billion is nothing to sneeze at.
In short, Pepsi and Starbucks are huge global businesses with long histories. For this reason, it might be surprising to suggest that companies that were only founded in 2011 and 2012 could be worth more than Pepsi and Starbucks within five years. But cybersecurity specialist CrowdStrike(NASDAQ: CRWD) and cryptocurrency platform Coinbase(NASDAQ: COIN) could do it if things go right.
1. CrowdStrike
CrowdStrike isn't just one cybersecurity product. Rather, it's a software platform with nearly 30 products -- called modules -- to choose from. The company's customers can select the modules that meet their needs. But they tend to start small before consolidating their cybersecurity spend by increasing the amount of CrowdStrike modules they're using.
CrowdStrike grows in two primary ways. First, it can attract new customers, which it's doing. The company doesn't report how many end users it has anymore. But it confirms that it's still adding net new customers. Second, its customers can adopt more of its software modules, which is also happening.
Between net new customers and the adoption of more modules, CrowdStrike's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is soaring. In its fiscal third quarter of 2025, the company surpassed ARR of $4 billion, which was up 27% year over year. But it's not stopping there. Roughly six years from now, management hopes to be at $10 billion in ARR.
CrowdStrike also hopes to have a free-cash-flow margin between 34% to 38% long term. Assuming it hits its goals, the company could be generating somewhere around $3.5 billion in annual free cash flow. In this scenario, its free-cash-flow valuation could get a little cheaper between now and 2030, and its market valuation could still surpass Pepsi's current market cap.
With the cybersecurity space as big and as important as it is, I wouldn't bet against industry leader CrowdStrike.
2. Coinbase
To be clear, I think that CrowdStrike's path to a $200 billion valuation is much smoother than Coinbase's path. But the cryptocurrency platform still has a shot.
From a regulatory perspective, the long-term outlook for cryptocurrency has always been somewhat murky. But the next four years could be the most favorable ever considering President-elect Donald Trump ran with a pro-crypto message. Moreover, cryptocurrency is growing in popularity, motivating other politicians to take it seriously on behalf of their constituents.
In short, if there was ever a time in which crypto was poised for substantial adoption, the time is now. And that's particularly good for Coinbase. Not only is the platform used by millions of people, it's also seen as a trustworthy platform for institutional investors and enterprises.
Granted, the cryptocurrency space is noteworthy for its ups and downs, so investors should brace themselves for some volatility. That said, when times are good, Coinbase can be a quite profitable business -- it had more than $3 billion in annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) a few years ago.
Could Coinbase hit $7 billion in EBITDA over the next five years under a favorable regulatory environment for crypto? Things get interesting for shareholders if it can.
Consider that Coinbase's enterprise value is roughly 30 times its EBITDA right now, which is a reasonable valuation. At this valuation, Coinbase would be worth more than Pepsi if it can boost its EBITDA to $7 billion. Granted, broad adoption for the cryptocurrency ecosystem would need to take place for profits to grow this much, and that's not guaranteed. But even just modest growth will likely push its valuation higher than Starbucks', which is still an impressive feat.
In closing, I believe that both CrowdStrike and Coinbase will be worth more than Starbucks before long. And I believe they could both be worth more than Pepsi in the next five years if things go right.
That said, I'd consider Coinbase the more speculative prediction of the two. By contrast, even if it doesn't reach the milestone within the next five years, I believe it's only a matter of time before CrowdStrike is more valuable than Pepsi.
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Jon Quast has positions in Starbucks. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Coinbase Global, CrowdStrike, and Starbucks. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
