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Wholesale prices rose less than expected in December, a positive sign for the economy amid recent market fears that inflation isn't falling as quickly as hoped to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Tuesday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that its producer price index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see — rose 3.3% from the year prior, up from the 3% seen in November but below the 3.5% increase economists had projected. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.2%, below the 0.4% increase economists had expected.
Excluding food and energy, "core" prices rose 3.5% year over year, above November's 3.4% gain. Economists had expected an increase of 3.8%. Meanwhile, month-over-month core prices were unchanged, below the 0.3% increase economists had expected and the 0.2% gain seen last month.
Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan noted the release "seems encouraging" but it also "masks some price jumps in a few of the key components which feed directly into the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation gauge." Notably, domestic and international airfare prices — which feed into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — jumped in December.
Read more: Jobs, inflation, and the Fed: How they're all related
Morgan Stanley's economics team moved up their core PCE inflation forecast for December following the release. The firm now believes prices increased 0.23% month over month in December, up from the 0.21% they projected prior to the release.
Tuesday’s PPI reading comes one day ahead of a highly anticipated release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI). Economists expect that print to show little progress, with core inflation anticipated to come in at 3.3% on an annual basis for the fifth straight month. More detailed forecasts on PCE will be updated following the CPI release on Wednesday.
Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers argued that Tuesday's softer-than-expected PPI should temper the "higher end of expectations for tomorrow's CPI report."
A recent hot labor report has economists largely believing signs of cooling inflation in the coming months will be required for the Fed to cut interest rates further this year.
As of Tuesday morning, markets were pricing in just a 3% chance the Fed cuts rates at its January meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Markets don't see a more than 50% chance the Fed cuts rates at a meeting until at least June.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.