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The biggest market event of the past week was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday at the Economic Club of New York.
“Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy—that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth,” Powell said.
And for those not steeped in the world of parsing statements from Fed officials for signals about policy decisions, the only words that really mattered from Powell were “just below.”
Following Powell’s comments, stocks ripped higher with the major U.S. indexes gaining more than 2% across the board. The market action indicates that investors saw Powell’s phrasing as suggesting a potentially less aggressive path for interest rate hikes next year.
Markets also interpreted this phrase as standing in intentional contrast to Powell’s early-October utterance that interest rates were “a long way from neutral.” The neutral rate of interest is the level of interest rates economists think supports an economy that operates at full employment with price inflation meeting the Fed’s 2% goal.
How any investor or economist or strategist interprets Powell’s commentary is up to him or her. I am partial to the idea that markets moved so violently on Wednesday because broad market positioning was betting on lower stock prices and a stronger dollar — positions that ended up wrong-footed on Wednesday — not because Powell drastically shifted the Fed’s outlook.
But any one investor’s interpretation of the Fed chair’s comments is less important than accepting that right now, any commentary from Powell is going to be a market mover. That is the signal to take away from this past week’s events.
Some on Wall Street, however, are somewhat divided on whether Powell really changed the Fed’s outlook as drastically as Wednesday’s action would suggest.
“Directionally, we agree that Fed commentary has shifted somewhat in a dovish direction over the past few weeks,” said economists at Goldman Sachs on Friday. “In the wake of tighter financial conditions and lower oil prices, the emphasis has shifted from a need for restrictive policy to the importance of data dependence while the tone on inflation expectations also appears to have shifted somewhat in a dovish direction … We, however, think that markets have overstated the extent of the shift for three reasons.”
To Goldman, markets for one thing overstated the importance of Powell’s October comments, which were made in an interview with PBS and not a prepared speech. Second, the firm thinks the market’s reaction implies that investors didn’t read the entire key sentence, stopping at “just below.” And though the Fed’s signature language on the neutral rate may now be “just below” instead of a “long way away,” Goldman thinks the Fed’s overall outlook for the labor market and economy remains notably unchanged, implying a quarterly pace of rate hikes remains likely in the time ahead.