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Pound lower as nervy dollar gains and Trump declines to rule out US recession

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Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X, DX-Y.NYB)

The pound fell against the dollar on Monday, pulling back slightly from a rally last week as markets reacted to various policy moves by president Donald Trump.

Investors retreated from the dollar last week amid caution around new US import tariffs for Canada, Mexico and China. Caution was heightened by Washington's intervention in the Ukraine-Russia war, with the US government pausing military aid to Kyiv.

On Sunday night, Trump declined to rule out the possibility that the US economy will slip into a recession this year.

“I hate to predict things like that," he said in a Fox News interview. "There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us,"

Sterling fell 0.2% against the greenback in early trade, hovering just below the $1.29 mark. Over the last five sessions it has gained around 2.3% against the dollar.

The dollar index, which tracks the world's reserve currency against a basket of other currencies, ticked 0.1% higher, meanwhile.

Sterling also fell against the euro, continuing its downward trajectory from last week. The euro has gained over the last five sessions amid positive economic data and a quarter-point rate cut by the European Central Bank.

Recent data shows that eurozone inflation has continued to slow. Last week, a fresh inflation reading showed the rate of price rises is expected to have fallen to 2.4% in February. While that was down from 2.5% in January, it was above forecasts of 2.3% and still remains above the central bank's 2% target.

Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices headed higher, steadying near the $2,920 mark as investors look to haven assets. Gold futures were up 0.2% by 9.20am in London, while the spot price ticked up slightly to $2,911. Spot gained almost 2% last week amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold has been on a roll so far this year, heading to fresh highs each week bar one, according to Bloomberg.

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices were steady on Monday following a dip last week as traders wait to see the next moves of both Opec+ and the Trump administration, as well as further indications as to the growth of major economies.

Brent crude rose slightly to trade above the $70 a barrel mark. West Texas Intermediate was just below the flatline, a little shy of $67-a-barrel.

"A disappointing snapshot from China showing consumer prices fell at the fastest rate in 13 months is adding to concerns about weakness in the global economy," said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown. "Deflation continues to stalk the Chinese economy, with consumers super-cautious about spending."