Market report
British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands slumped on a stumbling wider market as separate strategies by the British and Indian governments to stub out smoking weighed on the cigarette makers.
Exposed to the Indian tobacco market through its stake in conglomerate ITC, investors dumped BAT as the government increased levies on tobacco products by as much as 10pc.
The company’s heavy weighting on the FTSE 100 dragged down the index, its shares shedding 68p at £52.37. “ITC accounts for 12.5pc of BAT’s market capitalisation, implying a reduction of around 1.5pc for BAT’s share price”, argued RBC Capital Markets analyst Mirco Badocco.
Meanwhile, the unveiling of the UK’s new Tobacco Control Plan, which sets out to create a smoke-free generation, sent domestically exposed Imperial sliding 16.5p to £34.26.
Owen Bennett, an analyst at Jefferies, said that the targets in the report will raise concerns that pressures on the UK tobacco industry will persist with the government targeting a 12pc smoking rate in the population by the end of 2022.
Imperial and Japan Tobacco are most exposed to the UK government’s efforts with both deriving around 15pc of their EBIT from the British market, the broker added.
“Such targets suggest further aggressive anti-smoking measures in the years ahead,” Mr Bennett said.
UK airliners slumped due to a read across from a Lufthansa sell-off after the German airline told shareholders to expect a tougher second half to the year as fare pressures escalate.
British Airways-owner IAG dipped 2.5p to 621p while easyJet reversed Monday’s gains to close 18p lower at £14.13.
British Land finished among the top performers, advancing 19p to 623p, after launching a £300m share buyback scheme while Royal Mail Group recovered 12.3p to 411.1p after reporting a general election-related revenues boost in its first quarter.
However, RBC Capital Markets warned clients that Royal Mail’s increasing reliance on its parcel division could face headwinds from a weakening economic outlook.
Mining shares retreated from Monday’s highs to weigh on the FTSE 100, which closed 13.91 points lower at 7390.22 with the pound’s inflation-inspired slump mitigating losses.
On the mid-cap FTSE 250 index, Melrose tumbled 7.5p to 233p after Exane BNP Paribas took the manufacturing-focused investment company off its “outperform” list.
Security services firm NCC Group jumped 15.25p to 185p, a 9pc rise, after Jefferies reiterated its “buy” rating for the company, saying that “the new team has a credible recovery plan” and that the “worst is likely past” for the company which posted a £55.3m pre-tax loss in its full-year results yesterday.
Markets wrap: Inflation dominates today's markets; political inertia hits US stocks
A surprise fall in UK inflation in June to 2.6pc dictated much of the movement on the markets today with the pound weakening in response to the 0.3 percentage point drop. The inflation figures will embolden Mark Carney and the doves' cautious stance on tightening monetary policy at the Bank of England and reduce the chance of an early interest rate hike, dragging the pound down 0.25pc and 1.12pc against the dollar and euro, respectively.
Across the pond, health care stocks have taken the biggest hit from the political inertia gripping US Congress. The dollar has deteriorated again today, hitting a fresh ten-month low.
The pound's fall has mitigated losses on the internationally-focused FTSE 100, which was dragged down by retreating mining stocks and tobacco shares being hit by increasing efforts by the UK and Indian governments to reduce smoking. IAG and easyJet both suffered as German airliner Lufthansa warned of increasing fare pressures in the second half of the year. The blue-chip index outperformed its European counterparts, closing 13.91 points down at 7390.22, a 0.19pc fall.
IG market analyst Joshua Mahony commented on the FTSE 100:
"Indecision has once more reigned for the FTSE today, with the index attempting to claw itself back out of the red for the second time of asking as we head into the close.
FTSE 100
More disappointing economics data out of the US
Some more poor economics data has come out of the US with the National Association of Home Building reporting that builder confidence dipped two points in July to 64.
The NAHB's chairman Granger MacDonald said that its members were "growing increasingly concerned over rising material prices, particularly lumber". He added that the price increases were hitting housing affordability even though "consumer interest in the new-home market remains strong".
Just Group to beef up workforce as merger savings come early
Retirement specialist Just Group, created from last year's tie-up of Just Retirement and Partnership, is looking to beef up its workforce after hitting a £40m savings target a year earlier than planned.
The FTSE 250 life insurer has hired Legal & General executive Kathryn Grey as its group HR director, with chief executive Rodney Cook telling The Telegraph the group now wants to fill around 60 jobs.
The hiring drives comes as the company - formed after the share prices of the two legacy groups were slammed by reforms to pensions that weakened demand for annuity products - said it has boosted its savings target to £45m.
Just Group shares have risen by 7.6p, or 6.2pc, to 131.7p today.
Read Lucy Burton's full report here
Dollar's own weakness softens pound's fall but 'muscular' euro takes full advantage
The "pound's inflation disappointment and the euro's muscular gains" dominated investor sentiment this afternoon, according to Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell.
He added that the pound "was in a right hump" as June's inflation figure knocked the probability of an early rate hike from the Bank of England and only the dollar's own weakness softened sterling's fall against the greenback.
This is best exemplified by the pound's losses against other major currencies today. Against the euro it has fallen 1.2pc while against the Japanese yen it has dropped 1.1pc.
Mr Campbell commented on this afternoon's stock movement:
" Like the FTSE, the Dow Jones failed to find any joy in its currency’s woes, instead falling nearly 70 points after the bell. It is now around 100 points away from the all-time highs struck last Friday, a gap that it could easily clear with just the slightly turnaround."
New £10 note unveiled at Winchester Cathedral; Carney avoids talking on monetary policy
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has unveiled the new £10 polymer banknote featuring Jane Austen on the 200th anniversary of her death.
The big reveal took place at Winchester Cathedral, where Austen was buried following her death in 1817. It is the first time that members of the public were given an exclusive look ahead of its general release on September 14.
Austen is the only woman - apart from the Queen - to feature on an English bank note, following the withdrawal of the old £5 notes, which featured Elizabeth Fry. The new fivers show a picture of Winston Churchill.
Austen's presence on the new £10 note was one of the first announcements made by Mr Carney after he took up his position as Governor of the Bank of England in July 2013.
Read Sophie Christie's full report here
It seems that Mark Carney has resisted the urge to speak about today's inflation figures and stuck to his script. The pound's losses against the dollar have firmed up this afternoon but its decline against the euro has continued. It is now 1.2pc lower at €1.246 against the euro.
Health care stocks drag down US indices after opening bell
US markets have edged down this afternoon with health care stocks unsurprisingly taking the biggest knock from Donald Trump's stumbling health care reforms and the resultant political quagmire. The Dow Jones Industrial is suffering most with financials also dipping as earnings seasons gets in full swing.
Mr Trump has responded the only way he knows how, through his Twitter account:
Here's some reaction to the Goldman figures from chief trader at Ayondo Markets Jordan Hiscott:
“With their shares just $20 away from their all-time high of $255, there were certainly high expectations going into the Q2 update from Goldman Sachs. The headline figure was impressive, with Q2 income coming in at $3.95 per share - well above the analysts’ expectations of $3.39 per share.
Goldman Sachs traders turn in worst first half in Blankfein's rein
Goldman Sachs Group traders turned in their worst first-half performance since Lloyd Blankfein rose from that business to become chief executive officer in 2006 as second-quarter revenue from the fixed-income unit plunged 40pc.
Revenue from trading stocks and bonds in the first six months of 2017 tumbled 10pc, dropping to the lowest level since before Blankfein took over from Hank Paulson 11 years ago.
“A mixed operating environment persisted into the second quarter as conditions continued to support underwriting and M&A, while constraining certain market-making activity,” Blankfein said Tuesday in a statement.
Report by Bloomber
America's CH2M confirmed as winner in race to run multi-billion Parliament restoration
American infrastructure and engineering group CH2M has officially been awarded a contract to manage the massive refurbishment of the Houses of Parliament, beating domestic rivals to the multi-billion pound deal.
A second contract for architectural and design services was handed to international consultancy BDP for the programme, which is running late.
The Grade I-listed Palace of Westminster is falling into disrepair with many of its major systems not having been updated or overhauled since construction in the mid-1800s.
Estimates on how much the work will cost vary, but one of the most definitive projections comes from Deloitte. The consultancy said shutting Parliament and relocating MPs while the work was carried out would result in a total bill of £3.5bn and take six years.
Read Alan Tovey's full report here
US markets will fixate on Trump's struggle to pass reforms; Carney to speak soon
US markets will open any minute now and IG chief market analyst has previewed the action on Wall Street:
"US investors will have one eye on this and the other on Washington, as the administration falls into yet another quagmire over its healthcare plans.
Just a reminder that Bank of England governor Mark Carney is due to speak at 2.30pm at the launch of the £10 note. Whether he will speak on today's inflation figures is unknown but it must be tempting given the (now seemingly premature) calls from hawks for Mr Carney and the other members of the MPC to vote for an interest rate rise in order to head off inflation.
Knock-out blow? IP Group raises offer for rival Touchstone to £490m
IG Group shares
IP Group has raised its offer for rival science commercialisation outfit Touchstone Innovations to around £490m and secured the backing of the target company’s founder Imperial College in an effective knock-out blow in the hostile takeover battle.
The news takes support for the deal to 89.7pc, allowing IP Group to de-list Touchstone from the Aim market and squeeze out any remaining opposed minority shareholders.
FTSE 250-listed IP Group originally tabled a firm all-share offer worth £466m for Touchstone on June 19, but the value of the deal crashed below £400m over the intervening weeks as the share prices of both firms fell.
Touchstone’s board rebuffed the original offer and its chairman David Newlands wrote to shareholders to say it was “unwelcome”, arguing it undervalued the company, was a bad fit for the two firms, and risked driving out quality staff.
Read Lucy Burton's full report here
British Land risks repeat of 2007 with £300m share buyback programme, analysts warn
British Land has launched a £300m share buyback despite warnings that it risks repeating a similar lacklustre programme from 2007, which failed to improve its share price.
In a sign that the cost of UK commercial property is dramatically diverging from firms’ share prices, British Land’s chief executive Chris Grigg said buying its own shares was better value than investing in physical assets.
The company will buy back the shares during its current financial year, which ends in March 2018, using proceeds from the sale of its 50pc stake in London’s Cheesegrater skyscraper earlier this year.
In doing so, it becomes the first real estate investment trust (REIT) to buy back shares in almost a decade.
Shares have risen 19.5p, or 3.2pc, to 623.5p, making British Land the top gainer on the FTSE 100.
Read Rhiannon Bury's full report here
British Land
US preview: Investors will be eyeing bank earnings and Washington quagmire
Investor focus stateside will be on president Donald Trump's failure to pass health care reforms and earnings from the US' top banks this afternoon, according to analysts.
Overnight the dollar suffered at the hands of the floundering reforms, dropping to a fresh 10-month low against a basket of the 10 leading currencies.
CMC Markets analyst David Madden explains:
"This makes Mr Trump look weak because even Republicans won’t support his policies, and it make traders wonder what else they won’t support.
House prices continue to stall with fears a 'fresh slowdown in London could be under way'
House price growth has continued to stall, according to official figures, with the monthly rate nudging up just 0.5pc.
The annual rate of growth in May was 4.7pc, down from 5.3pc in the year to April, bringing the average UK house price to £221,000. Analysts at PwC have forecast it will slow to 3.7pc in 2017, while Capital Economics has said it could reach 2pc by the end of the year.
The slumping growth rate comes amid a general slowdown of activity in the housing market: last week, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found that the number of properties for sale per branch is at a record low, with the levels of new buyers and agreed sales also depressed, particularly in London.
This suggests "that a fresh slowdown could be under way [in the capital]", said Hansen Lu of Capital Economics.
Read Isabelle Fraser's full report here
European markets 'suffering under a weaker dollar'
While the pound's drop today inspired a rise on the FTSE 100 index, the weakened dollar is having the opposite effect on European markets, according to head of research at Accendo Markets Mike Van Dulken.
He said:
"European equities are suffering under a weaker USD after the Republican healthcare bill once again failed to achieve US congressional approval, denting hopes of Trump stimulus and adding to poor US data that has cut the odds of a September rate hike.
Oil prices have rebounded during the morning, lifting energy shares into positive territory. The less pronounced bounce in other commodity prices mean that the mining stocks are continuing to drag on the blue-chip index but to less of an extent to earlier..
Half-time update: Pound falls as surprise UK inflation drop dampens rate rise hopes
Pound / dollar exchange rate
The pound has fallen this morning after a surprise drop in UK inflation to 2.6pc in June, dashing the odds of an early interest rate rise.
The 0.3 percentage point fall from May's figures has strengthened the hand of the dovish side of the Bank of England's MPC, which wants to be more cautious with rate hikes to stop the economy from stumbling.
Bank of England governor and dove Mark Carney will be speaking later at the launch of the new £10 note but it is not know if he will mention today's data or the central bank's monetary policy.
The pound has dropped 0.35pc to $1.3015 against the dollar since the ONS released June's data.
The FTSE 100 started today's session poorly before recovering, inspired by the pound's fall. The benchmark index is now flat with Royal Mail the top gainer following strong first quarter results and mining stocks retreating from yesterday's highs.
This afternoon, US earnings season will continue with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs due to report their latest results.
Here's the current state of play in Europe:
FTSE 100: -0.08pc
DAX: -0.86pc
CAC 40: -0.59pc
IBEX: -0.35pc
Inflation reaction: economist forecasts keep missing
Broker RBC Capital Markets has pointed out that UK inflation has evaded economists' expectations quite frequently of late:
"It would be easy to over-interpret a 0.3ppt drop in CPI and miss versus consensus expectations of the same magnitude. However, it is the fifth time in nine months where the actual CPI inflation rate has deviated at least 0.2ppts away from the Bloomberg consensus forecast (in either direction).
Just how late is your train? New data to lift the lid on tardy service
Train passengers irked by delays will now be able to see more detailed figures about their service under changes aimed at making the UK rail industry the most transparent in Europe.
The Rail Delivery Group, which brings together train companies and Network Rail, said train companies would now publish the proportion of trains arriving early, within a minute of their scheduled time, and within three minutes.
The present requirement means short- and long-distance trains are considered ‘on time’ if they are five or 10 minutes late, respectively. The new data means customers will be able to see more detail on how train companies are performing.
Read Bradley Gerrard's full report here
Royal Mail receives election boost as international business drives revenues
Royal Mail’s first-quarter revenues were boosted by an increase in political mail during last month’s General Election and a strong performance in its overseas business.
In the three months to June 25, Royal Mail’s group revenues rose 1pc thanks primarily to a 5pc growth in volumes in GLS, its international parcel delivery service.
The General Election helped to soften the decrease in revenues from letters in the UK, although total letter revenue was still down 4pc.
The company said that decline would have been worse without “higher than expected revenue associated with the UK political parties’ 2017 General Election mailings”.
"GLS continues to be a driving force for the group,” said chief executive Moya Greene. “Its ongoing, focussed international expansion is increasing our geographic diversification, scale and reach.”
Shares are up 13.3p, or 3.3pc, to 412.1p.
Read Sam Dean's full report here
Royal Mail share price
Inflation reaction: Lower inflation and weakening business sentiment backdrop will slow rate rises
Tim Wallace's full report on the surprise drop in inflation can be read here
Oil price weakness and a stabilising pound underpins today's inflation figures, said Wisdom Tree analyst Nick Leung.
He added:
“Alongside a divided UK cabinet that is yet to adopt a coherent Brexit strategy, ongoing political uncertainty will continue driving volatility in the pound and UK inflation over coming months."
Here's some more reaction from the Twitterati:
Carillion wins two more Government contracts
Troubled contractor Carillion has been awarded two further Government contracts worth a combined £158m.
The company has been picked to deliver facilities management services at hundreds of military sites across the north of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The Ministry of Defence contracts will see Carillion deliver services such as catering and leisure as part of a joint venture, employing more than 2,500 people across 130 military establishments.
Shares are up a further 12.1pc this morning after rebounding yesterday following the award of the HS2 contract.
Read Sam Dean's full report here
Carillion
Inflation still to rise to around 3pc by the end of the year, according to Nomura
Consumer price inflation
Inflation will still rise to 3pc by the end of the year despite today's surprise fall, according to George Buckley at Nomura. He pointed out that only two of the 12 major components that make up the inflation data were responsible for today's decline: transport and recreation.
Mr Buckley added on where inflation could end up by the end of the year:
"We continue to look for a rise in inflation to around the 3% mark by the end of the year, following which we think the fading impact from sterling’s past declines will end up pulling inflation back towards its target.
Dip in German investor sentiment in July, according to ZEW survey
Just to avert your eyes away from today's UK inflation figures momentarily, there is also an economic sentiment survey out of Germany this morning. Here's Reuters' report on it:
The growth outlook in Europe's biggest economy continues to be positive, Germany's ZEW institute said on Tuesday after publishing an index which showed a fall in economic sentiment in July from the previous month.
Jennifer McKeown, chief European economist at Capital Economics, commented:
"July’s dip in German investor sentiment presumably reflects the recent tightening of financial market conditions, but we do not think that it is a sign of an economic slowdown to come.
Ms McKeown notes, however, that this index has been much less reliable than other business surveys such as the Ifo.
FTSE 100 rises as pounds weakens on inflation data
The internationally-focused FTSE 100 is now in positive territory after a poor start to today's session. Its recovery this morning has come in tandem with the pound's fall in reaction to the drop in inflation.
Miners are still the biggest drag on the index retreating from yesterday's China-inspired rally.
IG's chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp has lamented the blue-chip's attachment to movement on the currency markets:
"While the bounce in the FTSE will be welcome it still seems like we are at the mercy of currency fluctuations, with little in the way of fundamental news to drive the market higher.
Inflationary impact of the pound's depreciation 'seems to have lessened'
Shilen Shah, Bond Strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment, argues that the impact of the pound on inflation is falling:
"The inflationary impact of Sterling’s fall following the Brexit vote seems to have lessened following the recent one-year anniversary of the Brexit vote.
Inflation explainer
Here's a quick inflation explainer put together by our video team.
Inflation reaction: Today's slowdown should 'squash' August rate hike
An August interest rate rise looks very unlikely now, according to ETX Capital market analyst Neil Wilson.
He commented:
"Today’s slowdown in price growth should squash any speculation of a rate hike for the time being.
Dip in UK inflation 'only temporary', says Capital Economics
Today's drop in UK inflation, the largest month drop since February 2015, is "unlikely to mark a turning point", according to Capital Economics UK economist Ruth Gregory.
She added:
"Note, though, that this was in line with the Bank of England’s latest forecasts. Although annual food inflation has risen to its highest since November 2013 in response to sterling’s fall, this was more than offset by falls in a number of other categories, notably fuel prices and toys and games.
Key takeaways from the inflation release
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Inflation decreases in June to 2.6pc from 2.9pc the previous month
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Pound drops following the release to below $1.3030
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Falling prices for motor fuels was a key factor for the decrease
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Certain recreational and cultural goods and services price drop also contributed
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The decrease was partially offset by rising furniture and furnishings prices, according to the ONS
Inflation reaction: May's inflation rate 'could well be the high water mark' for inflation
CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson commented that May's rate could be the high water mark:
"The squeeze on real wages doesn’t appear to be getting any worse after UK CPI for June came in at 2.6%, 0.3% down from May’s 2.9%, which could mean that this could well be the high water mark as far as imported inflation is concerned given that the exchange rate comparatives are likely to be less severe for the July numbers than they were for June, as the Brexit referendum effect starts to drop out of the calculations in the coming months."
Worth mentioning on the pound's fall that it is now only 0.25pc lower for the day. While this a low for the week, it is still above last week's performance.
Inflation falls to 2.6pc; pound slips against the dollar
Inflation has fallen to 2.6pc in June from 2.9pc in May.
The pound has slipped against the dollar following the release. The pound is currently around $1.3030 against the dollar. That reading should hold off the hawks for at least the August MPC meeting.
Pound dips ahead of inflation report
The pound has eased off slightly from this morning's highs against the dollar ahead of the inflation figures.
It is currently around $1.3075 against the greenback after briefly spiking above $1.3120 earlier today.
Why a rise in inflation could put pressure on the doves at the Bank of England?
Three Bank of England rate-setters (out of eight) voted for an increase in interest rates, which are currently at 0.25pc, in June's Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Since then the central bank's chief economist Andy Haldane has signaled that he would vote for an interest rate hike "relatively soon" in order to head off the effects of inflation caused mainly by the depreciation of the pound.
Last week, deputy governor Ben Broadbent came out on the side of the doves, saying that it was "tricky" to raise interest rates just yet, while external MPC member and hawk Ian McCafferty, who voted for a rise in June's meeting, said that the Bank of England should follow the example of the Federal Reserve in the US and start unwinding its quantitative easing programme.
Above-target inflation won't force monetary policy to tighten, says Reuters poll
Interest rates against inflation
An interesting poll of economists conducted by Reuters has concluded that the Bank of England will not tighten monetary policy in 2017 or 2018 even if inflation remains above the central bank's target rate.
It reported:
Only two of the 80 economists polled in the past few days expect the MPC to tighten policy when it meets on Aug. 3, but they are joined by four others who expect an increase by end-December. The chances of a hike in August are only one-in-five, according the poll.
Inflation rise will 'resuscitate' BoE hawks
An inflation reading above 3pc will "likely resuscitate the BoE hawks and could trigger a decent rally in the pound markets", according to London Capital Group analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
She added:
"In opposition, a softer-than-expected inflation would give reason to the BoE Governor Mark Carney, who has been predicting a slowdown in inflationary pressures due to the decline in real wages.
An inflation rate in line with market expectations will have 'limited' impact on the pound, says ING
ING's economists are expecting UK inflation to remain "perilously close to 3pc as the effect of the pound’s depreciation continues to filter its way through to prices". Should it hold steady at 2.9pc, the impact on the pound will be "limited" with "Brexit political noise" becoming the main driver of movement once again.
Any deviation from expectations could influence MPC members, according to Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell.
He commented:
"The Bank of England is so conflicted about what to do in regards to interest rates at the moment that a significant move in the inflation reading, be it up or down, could help push undecided MPC members in a hawkish or dovish direction ahead of the next meeting in early August."
UK inflation preview: A rise 'could push the pound towards $1.33'
The pound could push past $1.33 against the dollar if there is any indication that "prices are likely to remain sticky", according to Michael Hewson, CMC Markets analyst. The pound's recent advances on the greenback have been mainly the result of a weak dollar and hawkish murmurs from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members. Those murmurs will become a little louder if inflation rises.
It's also worth mentioning that Bank of England governor Mark Carney will be speaking at the launch of the new plastic £10 notes featuring Jane Austen later this afternoon. Whether he will speak on monetary policy is another matter.
Mr Hewson points out that Mr Carney steered well clear of anything policy related at last year's £5 note launch just before the EU referendum but "he was on the receiving end of large amount of opprobrium" for intervening in the campaign.
Agenda: Surprise UK inflation rise could cause pound to spike
Overnight Asian stocks retreated following a six-day winning streak while US equities closed flat as president Donald Trump's healthcare reforms floundered.
Mr Trump's struggle to persuade Republican colleagues to back his efforts to amend Obamacare sent the dollar sliding back to a ten month low, also on the back of concerns that weak inflation will slow the pace of interest rate hikes at the US Federal Reserve.
After the closing bell in London, Brent crude slipped back below $49 per barrel after the US Energy Information Administration said that it foresees an increase in oil production in August as shale drilling in the Permian Basin in Texas picks up.
Today's main event is UK inflation figures for June from the ONS, which will drop at 9.30am. Analysts expect year-on-year inflation to hold steady at 2.9pc but any surprise rise will embolden the hawks calling for a sooner interest rate hike.
The pound will likely spike if the ONS reports an increase in inflation and anything above 3pc will mean Mark Carney will be writing a (probably quite short) letter to chancellor Phillip Hammond explaining the reasons why it has deviated so far from the Bank of England's 2pc target.
The pound is already pushing the $1.31 mark against the weak dollar this morning while it has settled around €1.1370 against the euro. The FTSE 100 has opened around 0.3pc lower with mining stocks retreating from yesterday's gains.
Full-year results: NCC Group, IG Group, Ideagen, Castleton Technology
Interim results: Synectics
Trading update: BHP Billiton
AGM: Bloomsbury Publishing, Wizz Air, Summit Therapeutics, British Land Co
Economics: House price index y/y (UK), producer price index input/output m/m (UK), consumer price index y/y (UK), retail price index y/y (UK), import prices m/m (US), consumer price index y/y (EU), ZEW economic sentiment (EU)