The polls are swinging against Hillary Clinton because she gave voters reason to distrust her
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton

(Hillary Clinton.Alex Wong/Getty Images)

A few weeks ago I had an argument with a former colleague from my days as a real-estate banker who thought I was being too hard on Donald Trump.

I asked him whether he would extend a mortgage to Donald Trump. The mantra we were taught at Wells Fargo was "people, credit, real estate" — which is to say, you don't make loans to people you don't trust, even if they have strong finances and good property.

The obvious answer to that question is no, you don't give Trump a mortgage. Indeed, as BuzzFeed reported last month, Trump's difficulty getting access to credit from regular banks may be why he was so interested, some years back, in doing a business deal with Muammar Gaddafi.

Similarly, I believe trust is a deal-breaker with Trump the politician, and you can't vote for him even if you agree with his stated policy positions.

But the more I thought about it, the more I realized I wouldn't give a mortgage to Hillary Clinton, either.

At a bank, if you have mortgage applications from two unsuitable borrowers, you can reject both of them. Elections don't work like that. And in November, I'm going to be tasked with choosing between two candidates who fail my loan test.

That doesn't mean the vote choice is close or difficult for me. As I have written before, Trump poses unacceptable tail risks to the country. I would be less uncomfortable extending a mortgage to Clinton than to Trump, and I would be much less uncomfortable with her as president than with him.

But I get why so many voters look at these two candidates and say they can't trust either. And I shouldn't have been as surprised as I am by the latest polling, which shows Clinton's numbers softening. In the CBS/New York Times poll out Thursday, which has the race tied at 40-40, 67% of respondents said they did not find Clinton honest and trustworthy.

Back in May, I wrote that I would believe the presidential election was close to tied if the polls still showed it close to tied on July 1.

They didn't, but now they do. Something has changed. It was her damn emails.

Clinton's "favorable" and "honest and trustworthy" numbers have worsened since FBI Director James Comey's characterization that she had been "extremely careless" in handling her email server, even though he was in no position to indict her.

Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Old State House in Springfield, Illinois, U.S. July 13, 2016. REUTERS/Whitney Curtis
Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Old State House in Springfield, Illinois, U.S. July 13, 2016. REUTERS/Whitney Curtis

(Thomson Reuters)

It's far from the first time the Clintons have put voters in the position of deciding how much we're going to care about a decision that wasn't indictable but that does cast doubt on their transparency and their willingness to be bound by the spirit of rules.