The 2018 midterm elections are “a referendum on President Trump,” USC Professor of Public Policy Communication Sherry Bebitch Jeffe said on Friday.

“The irony is that I think he made the decision to make it a referendum on him and on immigration,” the Los Angeles-based political analyst told Yahoo Finance’s Market Movers. “But control of the referendum has shifted. It is now a referendum on leadership, on character, particularly in the wake of the most recent events, and that’s not good news for Donald Trump.”

In the last few weeks, in an attempt to rally his base, President Trump and allies have pushed alarmist theories about a caravan of migrants seeking asylum that is slowly making its way through Mexico and toward the U.S. border. The rhetoric has continued despite a mass-shooting On October 27 in Pittsburgh that seemed partly inspired by anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about the caravan.

Trump also recently told Axios in an interview that he was preparing an executive order that would attempt to end the constitutional guarantee of birthright U.S. citizenship.

‘Focus on the economy’

Instead of making the midterms a referendum on him, Bebitch Jeffe said Trump should instead “focus on the economy.”

“The economy is one of the major concerns of American voters, but I think Donald Trump is stepping on his own ability to communicate that message because he isn’t focusing,” she said. “The economy is good, it has been good and he still isn’t very solid with regards to his job approval rating.”

The Labor Department offered another reminder of the labor market’s persistent strength on Friday: 250,000 jobs were added in October, and the unemployment rate is at 3.7 percent.

Even with a strong economy to tout, Bebitch Jeffe said that Trump shouldn’t underestimate the power of early voting.

“Don’t forget people have been voting for a long time now, all before this news came out, so we’ll see how many people are left to vote on election day,” Bebitch Jeffe said.

‘Could bring the Democrats right up to the gate of control’

With more than 28 million ballots already cast nationwide as of Friday, early voting is at a record high. In 2014, 27 million ballots were cast early.

Ultimately, Bebitch Jeffe thinks California and other historically blue states will make the difference during the midterms.

“It’s amazing that there are at least seven districts statewide Republican held now that are really really in play in California,” she said. “The Democrats need only at least 23 Republican-held seats to take control of Congress and anywhere from 7 to 10 of those are in California. Look at California, look at New York, look at Pennsylvania. Those three states alone could bring the Democrats right up to the gate of control of Congress if those Republican-held seats are flipped.”

Read more:

• U.S. midterm elections will be, by far, the most expensive ever

• Democrats and Republicans agree on 2 things about the economy: Survey

• Former Fed SVP: Trump’s attacks are ‘the worst possible outcome’

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