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How Should You Play AAL Stock Post the Narrower-Than-Expected Q1 Loss?

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On April 24, American Airlines AAL reported narrower-than-expected loss per share for the first quarter of 2025.  However, the loss widened on a year-over-year basis. Revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate despite the tariff-induced uncertainty.

The narrower-than-expected loss meant that AAL maintained its earnings surprise record, having surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters.

American Airlines Price and EPS Surprise

American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American Airlines price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Quote

AAL expects earnings per share to be between 50 cents and $1 in the second quarter of 2025. However, given this uncertain scenario, AAL decided against giving guidance for a longer period and withdrew its 2025 financial guidance. Management stated that it would provide an update later in the year as visibility improves.

With air travel demand on the domestic front slowing down, led by the tariff-induced weakening of consumer confidence, AAL is not the only player in the Zacks Transportation- Airline industry to withdraw its full-year guidance. Delta Air Lines DAL, while kicking off the first-quarter 2025 earnings season on April 9, had also withdrawn its outlook for 2025 due to the uncertainty. Southwest Airlines LUV, which, like AAL, reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 24, also did not reaffirm its guidance for earnings before interest and taxes for 2025 and 2026. Southwest Airlines’ management stated that “Amid the current macroeconomic uncertainty, it is difficult to forecast given recent and short-lived booking trends.”

(See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

American Eagle Flight 5342’s Mishap Also Hurt Q1 Results

In the first quarter of 2025, AAL’s operating revenues decreased 0.2% year over year to $12.55 billion. Passenger revenues, accounting for 90.8% of the top line, decreased 0.6% year over year to $11.4 billion.

Apart from the well-documented tariff-induced slowdown in domestic air travel demand, results were also hurt by the American Eagle flight 5342 mishap. American Eagle, encompassing regional carriers, is a subsidiary of AAL.

On Jan. 29, an AAL regional jet collided with a U.S. Army helicopter in Washington, DC. The collision with a military helicopter killed all 64 people on board. Three people who were aboard the helicopter also died. This was the first major commercial airline crash since 2009. The aircraft went down in the Potomac River, breaking into multiple pieces.

The flight data and cockpit voice recorders were recovered following the deadly midair collision. The National Transportation Safety Board led the investigation into this deadly crash.