Analyzing Energy Company Moving Averages and Broker Estimates
Phillips 66 nearing 100-day moving average
Phillips 66 (PSX) was at its 100-day moving average on March 1, 2016. Since December 28, 2015, PSX had struggled to stay over its 100-day moving average. On February 16, the stock moved above its 20-day moving average. Since then, PSX has converged toward the 100-day and 20-day moving averages.
PSX is above the important psychological technical level of $80. PSX is currently 11.3% below its 52-week high and 19.5% above its 52-week low. PSX’s trailing PE (price-to-earnings) ratio is about 11.7x compared to its estimated forward PE of 12.74x.
The downstream companies shown in the above chart are trading at an average of 19.1% below their 100-day moving average. Among the downstream companies, CVR Refining (CVRR) and Alon USA Energy (ALJ) are trading 43% and 32%, respectively, below their 100-day moving averages, the highest in the group.
Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates
The Wall Street analysts’ consensus median estimate suggests a 34% upside for these US-based downstream (XLE) companies on average. Based on Wall Street analysts’ median estimates, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66, Valero Energy (VLO), and Tesoro (TSO) could rise by 63%, 11%, 26%, and 35%, respectively, from their current levels.
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