Pfizer PFE will report its first-quarter earnings on April 29, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the first quarter is pegged at $13.88 billion and 67 cents per share, respectively. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2025 earnings have risen from $2.97 to $2.98 per share over the past 30 days. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
PFE Estimate Movement
Zacks Investment Research
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PFE’s Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 44.16%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 31.25%, as seen in the chart below.
Zacks Investment Research
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What Does Our Model Say?
Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of -7.23% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 or #3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Shape PFE’s Upcoming Results
Pfizer’s non-COVID operational revenues improved in 2024, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products from Seagen. The trend is expected to have continued in the first quarter.
We expect Pfizer’s several newly launched drugs like Velsipity pill for ulcerative colitis, pentavalent meningococcal vaccine Penbraya and new gene therapies for hemophilia, Hympavzi (marstacimab) and Beqvez/Durveqtix to have contributed to top-line growth.
The Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is likely to have impacted sales of higher-priced drugs, including Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz.
Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care Segment
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID vaccine, Comirnaty, are likely to have declined similar to the past several quarters due to lower vaccinations globally and lower contracted doses. However, sales of its antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, improved in the fourth quarter of 2024. It remains to be seen if the improved trend continued in the first quarter of 2025.
Sales of Comirnaty and Paxlovid have become somewhat stable due to their commercialization in both the United States and international markets.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $279.0 million, while that for Paxlovid is $629.0 million.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $209.9 million, while that for Paxlovid is $523.4 million.
While alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are likely to have risen, sales of key vaccine Prevnar are likely to have declined.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $2.0 billion, while our model estimate is $2.28 billion.
Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.7 billion while our model estimates Prevnar family vaccine sales to be $1.73 billion.
Expectations for PFE’s Oncology Segment
In the Oncology unit, sales of key medicine, Ibrance are likely to have been hurt due to lower demand trends globally due to competitive pressure and price decreases in some developed international markets. Sales of Xtandi, Lorbrena and Braftovi/Mektovi are likely to have increased. The antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs — Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak — added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the Seagen acquisition in December 2023 are likely to have boosted Pfizer’s oncology sales.
Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care Segment
In the Specialty Care unit, while sales of Vyndaqel are likely to have remained strong, sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel are likely to have declined.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.42 billion while our model estimates the same to be $1.37 billion.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.
PFE’s Price Performance & Valuation
So far this year, Pfizer’s stock has declined 13.7% compared with a decrease of 3.6% for the industry.
Pfizer Stock Performance
Zacks Investment Research
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From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its 5-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the shares currently trade at 7.54 forward earnings, lower than 14.88 for the industry and the stock’s 5-year mean of 11.03. The stock is also much cheaper than that of several other large drugmakers like Eli Lilly LLY, Novo Nordisk NVO, AstraZeneca, AbbVie and others.
PFE Stock Valuation
Zacks Investment Research
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Investment Thesis on PFE Stock
After witnessing possibly its worst slowdown in 2023/2024, the company seems to be gradually making a comeback and entering a transition phase. Last year was a strong one in terms of performance and execution by Pfizer, even though its stock took a hit in 2023 due to a decline in revenues and profits. It saw improved performance of its new products, gained and maintained market share of some of its core brands and made rapid pipeline progress in 2024.
Pfizer faces its share of challenges, the key being declining sales of its COVID-19 products. Pfizer also expects a significant impact from the loss of patent exclusivity in the 2026-2030 period, as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi will face patent expirations. The Medicare Part D redesign under the IRA is also expected to hurt sales of Pfizer’s higher-priced drugs like Vyndaqel, Ibrance and Xeljanz in 2025.
The company has also faced its share of setbacks. Earlier this month, Pfizer said it is discontinuing the development of its GLP-1R agonist, danuglipron, which was developed as a weight loss pill. Pfizer took the decision after one of the participants in the dose-optimization studies developed a potentially drug-induced liver injury, which resolved after danuglipron was discontinued. Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the obesity market with their GLP-1 injections.
However, with COVID-related uncertainties diminishing, its revenue volatility is declining. Its non-COVID drugs and contribution from new and newly acquired products should continue to drive top-line growth in 2025. Also, Pfizer expects cost cuts and internal restructuring to deliver savings of at least $6.0 billion. Continued growth in non-COVID sales and significant cost-reduction measures should drive profit growth.
The company continues to pay regular dividends. Its dividend yield stands at more than 7%, which is quite impressive.
Bet on PFE Stock
No matter how the first-quarter results play out, investors may consider buying Pfizer’s stock at the present cheap valuation for long-term gains. It will be a great pick for value investors, considering its cheap valuation, as well as for income investors due to its sky-high dividend yield.
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