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Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN) shareholders, since the share price is down 49% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 3.6%. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 8.1%. But this could be related to the soft market, which is down about 10% in the same period.
Since Persimmon has shed UK£307m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, Persimmon's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 30% each year. In comparison the 20% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Dive deeper into Persimmon's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Persimmon's earnings, revenue and cash flow .
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Persimmon's TSR for the last 3 years was -40%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Persimmon shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.9%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Persimmon better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Persimmon you should be aware of.