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The Perils of Trump's Proposed Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (opinion)
A drawing of a bald eagle carrying a bitcoin
Illustration: Joanna Andreasson; Source images: iStock

Fourteen years ago, bitcoin was an experimental obscurity mainly popular among cypherpunks and libertarians, trading for less than a U.S. dollar. Since then, it has proven its success as a mostly swift and affordable way to move value globally, while experiencing unprecedented leaps in exchange value for dollars—as well as massive volatility. (Bitcoin first broke $100 in April 2013 and as of this writing is above $54,000.) Former President Donald Trump recently suggested that it's time for the United States to form a bitcoin strategic reserve.

"The government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin," said Trump, speaking to the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July. He vowed if he's president again that the U.S. will "keep 100 percent of the bitcoin [it] currently holds or acquires into the future" instead of, as it now does, occasionally auctioning it off through the U.S. Marshals service that confiscated much of it from accused criminals who, in some cases, stole the bitcoin. The government already possesses around 200,000 bitcoin.

This boosterism was a change of heart: In 2021 Trump called bitcoin a "scam" and a danger to the dollar's international dominance, but he seems to have realized his political coalition includes cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R–Wyo.) has introduced a bill to make that strategic reserve real, working toward government ownership and stewardship of a million bitcoin—nearly 5 percent of the total amount that will ever exist, via purchases of 200,000 bitcoins a year for five years. The cost of that yearly purchase as this is being written would be $11.2 billion.

To finance these purchases, Lummis suggests revaluing Federal Reserve gold certificates to current market value (rather than the $42 an ounce established decades ago) and requiring the Fed to kick back to the Treasury in newly created cash money the amount of the increase in value of the certificates.

A previous huge and important U.S. strategic reserve was for petroleum, founded in 1975 as a response to price and supply disruptions after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. (The federal government also stockpiles medical supplies, foreign currencies, materials of military manufacturing importance, grains, and gold.) The way the U.S. has handled the petroleum reserve doesn't indicate it'd be a smart steward of any future bitcoin one.

As economist Alan Reynolds explained on the Cato Institute's blog in 2022, the government has mostly continued to buy more petroleum even at higher prices (which made the reserve, Reynolds concludes, "in the early 1980s….in effect, a price support program for OPEC oil") and to sell, when it does, at lower prices than the petroleum was bought for.