Peralta Community College District, CA -- Moody's assigns issuer rating of Baa2 to Peralta CCD, CA and downgrades GOULT to A3, 2005 OPEB bonds to Baa1, and 2011 Taxable Refunding bonds to Baa2; outlook negative

Rating Action: Moody's assigns issuer rating of Baa2 to Peralta CCD, CA and downgrades GOULT to A3, 2005 OPEB bonds to Baa1, and 2011 Taxable Refunding bonds to Baa2; outlook negativeGlobal Credit Research - 19 Jan 2022New York, January 19, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Baa2 issuer rating to Peralta Community College District, CA. Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded the district's 2005 Other Postemployment Benefits (OPEB) bonds to Baa1 from A3 and downgraded the 2011 Taxable Refunding bonds to Baa2 from A3. The outlook has been revised to negative from ratings under review for the district's OPEB obligations. This action concludes the review for downgrade initiated on August 4, 2021 in conjunction with the release of the Higher Education Methodology. Moody's has also downgraded to A3 from A1 the general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) bonds. The outlook on the GOULT bonds is negative.RATINGS RATIONALEThe assignment of the Baa2 issuer rating incorporates the district's location within the dynamic and growing economy of San Francisco's East Bay and its role as a low-cost provider of higher education and dual enrollment programs. The rating also reflects favorable "hold harmless" state funding, one-time federal grants to address the coronavirus pandemic, and voter support of additional parcel tax revenues that serve to support financial operations in the face of ongoing enrollment declines exacerbated by the pandemic. These factors serve to balance weaker credit considerations including the probationary status of the district's four colleges, a governance consideration that we view as a key credit driver, budget gaps exclusive of one-time revenues with weak liquidity and elevated leverage, with substantial exposure to variable rate debt and swaps associated with the OPEB bonds.The A3 rating on the district's general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) bonds reflects California CCD GOULT bond security features that include the physical separation through a "lockbox" for pledged property tax collections and a security interest created by statute.The Baa1 rating on the 2005 OPEB bonds is based on the combination of the underlying credit fundamentals of the district combined with debt instrument considerations. The one-notch distinction incorporates the legally available revenue of the district and the additional pledge of available funds in the district's Retiree Health Benefit Program Fund or Trust I.The Baa2 rating on the 2011 Taxable Refunding bonds reflects the legally available revenue of the district but the lack of a pledge of Trust I funds.RATING OUTLOOKThe negative outlook reflects the challenges that the district faces in restoring balanced operations in the face of declining enrollment prior to the end of California's "hold harmless" levels of state funding that will end beginning in fiscal 2026. The outlook also incorporates risks in the district's ability to maintain a stable management team to engage in multi-year planning and implement these reforms.FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATINGS- ACCJC determination of accreditation without sanction- Sustained improvement in financial performance and liquidity- Significant reduction in leverageFACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS- Loss of accreditation- Ongoing declines in enrollment- Declines in EBIDA margin, reserves or liquidityLEGAL SECURITYThe Series 2005 B-3, B-4, B-5 and B-6 OPEB obligations are secured by all legally available revenue of the district. The bonds are additionally secured by a lien against the assets of the Retiree Health Benefit Program Fund ("RHBPF") or "Trust I," which equaled $224.7 million as of July 22, 2021.The Series 2011 bonds are payable from any lawful available monies of the District, but do not benefit from a pledge of the RHBPF. The bonds refunded the outstanding balance of the 2009 Taxable OPEB Refunding Bonds.The general obligation unlimited tax bonds are secured by the district's voter-approved unlimited property tax pledge. Alameda County (Aaa stable) rather than the district will levy, collect, and disburse the district's property taxes, including the portion constitutionally restricted to pay debt service on general obligation bonds.PROFILEThe district serves six East Bay Area cities including Oakland (Aa1 stable), Piedmont, Berkeley (Aa1), Albany, and Alameda in Alameda County. The district operates four colleges: Laney College in downtown Oakland, College of Alameda in Alameda, Merritt College in the Oakland hills, and Berkeley City College in downtown Berkeley. The district operates one community education center in Oakland's Fruitvale neighborhood. The district also offers an Aviation Maintenance program through the College of Alameda at the Oakland International Airport.The district's four colleges are accredited by the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges ("ACCJC"). The district's accreditation at all four colleges is currently in probation status.For fiscal year 2022, the district's enrollment is estimated at 14,917. This is up somewhat from 13,185 in fiscal 2021 during the height of the pandemic, but down significantly from historical highs of over 20,000. The district has experienced a long-term trend of declining enrollment, and enrollment remains below a target of 16,000.METHODOLOGY The principal methodology used in the issuer and other notched general government ratings was Higher Education Methodology published in August 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1257002. The principal methodology used in the general obligation ratings was US Local Government General Obligation Debt published in January 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1260094. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies. REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. 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