Humanity faces a perilous future, marked by an explosion of disinformation turbocharged by artificial intelligence and the devastating effects of climate change.
The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks.
According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. About 30% expect the same in the next two years.
While the report does not define a “global catastrophe,” it describes “global risk” as an event that would “negatively impact a significant proportion of global gross domestic product, population or natural resources.”
In a statement, the WEF said its latest report “warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.”
Results from the survey “highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term,” it added.
The report, which comes ahead of the WEF’s glitzy annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week, is based on responses from 1,490 risk experts primarily from business, but also academia, government, and civil society. The survey was launched on September 4 and closed on October 9, 2023, two days after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel.
Misinformation threat in huge election year
For the first time in the survey’s near-20-year history, experts identified misinformation and disinformation as the most severe risk in the next two years. That coincides with an unprecedented year for elections globally, with close to 3 billion people expected to head to the polls in 2024.
The American Psychological Association defines misinformation as “false or inaccurate information — getting the facts wrong.” Disinformation, on the other hand, “is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead.”
AI has made it much easier to spread false information in order to influence voters, including through the use of deepfakes, according to Carolina Klint, one of the report’s authors and chief commercial officer for Europe at Marsh McLennan, a professional services firm.
“There’s a fear we’ll see much more of it (this year),” she told CNN. “That could potentially (call) the elected government’s legitimacy into question, which could then in turn impact societal polarization.”
Extreme weather events were ranked the number two short-term risk, demonstrating heightened awareness about the environment and climate change in a year plagued by rising temperatures and rampant floods and wildfires. Last year was the hottest on record.