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It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really bad investments should be rare. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN), who have seen the share price tank a massive 79% over a three year period. That'd be enough to cause even the strongest minds some disquiet. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 63% lower in that time. Furthermore, it's down 31% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
Since Peninsula Energy has shed AU$25m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Peninsula Energy
Because Peninsula Energy made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
In the last three years, Peninsula Energy saw its revenue grow by 28% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. So why has the share priced crashed 21% per year, in the same time? You'd want to take a close look at the balance sheet, as well as the losses. Sometimes fast revenue growth doesn't lead to profits. Unless the balance sheet is strong, the company might have to raise capital.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Peninsula Energy
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 9.0% in the last year, Peninsula Energy shareholders lost 62%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Peninsula Energy better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Peninsula Energy (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.