Pending home sales drop to lowest level in over 20 years

Contract signings for existing homes logged their slowest pace in more than two decades in October.

Home sales under contract dropped 1.5% from the month before, according to the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. The 71.4 index reading is the lowest since the index's founding in 2001. An index level of 100 is equal to the pace of contract activity in 2001.

Still, the results were better than the 2.0% decline that Bloomberg economists had estimated and come after a bigger slide in new home sales that same month.

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The drop in the index, a leading gauge used to assess the housing market’s health, still reflects how rising rates in October again unnerved budget-sensitive buyers and pushed pending sales in the resale market down by 8.5% annually.

“Rates were hovering around 8% in October. They were the highest in 23 years, which pushed affordability to a record low,” RSM US real estate senior analyst Crystal Sunbury told Yahoo Finance ahead of the release. “We'll see pending home sales falling accordingly in October.”

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage surged a half-point during the month, jumping from 7.49% in the first week to 7.79% in the last one, according to Freddie Mac. (Since then, rates have fallen back.)

The yield on the 10-year Treasury — which fixed mortgage rates tend to follow — momentarily eclipsed 5% at the end of October for the first time in 16 years as concerns piled on over the Fed’s stance that interest rates will remain "higher for longer."

That meant only 37% of homes sold during the third quarter were affordable to families earning a typical income, down from 40.5% in the second quarter, per the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index.

Many buyers, as a result, scurried away.

Contract signings in the West fell 6.0%, while pending sales dropped 0.4% in the Midwest. The South also recorded a monthly dip of 1.9% in pending sales in October. Only the Northeast saw a 2.7% gain in activity with sales under contract, but that was still down 6.5% from a year ago. The other three regions also registered year-over-year declines in activity.

SAN ANSELMO, CA - MAY 22:  A sale pending sign is posted in front of a home for sale on May 22, 2013 in San Anselmo, California.  According to a report by the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes inched up 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million, up from 4.94 million in March, the highest level since 2009.  (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
A sale pending sign is posted in front of a home for sale on May 22, 2013, in San Anselmo, Calif. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) · Justin Sullivan via Getty Images

Another major headwind remains the limited inventory on the market. In fact, higher rates are to blame because they are dissuading many homeowners from listing their properties for sale, exacerbating long-term inventory issues.

“Limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied," Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, wrote in the release. "Multiple offers, of course, yield only one winner, with the rest left to continue their search."