In This Article:
The global PC market started 2025 on a strong note, with first-quarter shipments increasing 4.9% year over year to 63.2 million units, according to the data compiled by International Data Corporation (“IDC”). The data was impressive and marked the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. However, the near-term prospects of the PC industry seem highly volatile, given an uncertain environment triggered by the U.S. government’s new tariff policies, inflationary concerns and shifting PC upgrade cycles.
First-Quarter Growth: A Pre-Tariff Rush
At first glance, the first-quarter shipment data suggests strong momentum in the PC space. However, much of this growth appears to be driven by strategic stockpiling by vendors and buyers to have front-loaded orders ahead of new tariffs announced by the U.S. government in early April, according to IDC. These tariffs, which are expected to directly impact hardware imports from China, could raise costs for both suppliers and end-users in the coming quarters.
Per IDC, many players in the PC supply chain made calculated decisions to accelerate shipments in the first quarter to avoid additional tariff pressure. This makes the first quarter look stronger than it might have otherwise been. However, this elevated first-quarter performance has introduced uncertainty about how the rest of the year will unfold once the full impact of the tariffs takes hold.
Computer - Mini computers Industry 5YR % Return
Computer - Mini computers Industry 5YR % Return
Commercial Demand Still Intact
Though the first-quarter performance benefited from a pre-tariff stockpiling strategy, there are signs that some underlying drivers of PC demand remain healthy, particularly for commercial PCs. The demand for commercial PCs is likely to be driven by two structural tailwinds.
First, businesses are likely to refresh PCs ahead of the end of Microsoft’s Windows 10 support in October 2025. Second, rising interest in PCs equipped with on-device AI capabilities could be a major demand booster for the PC industry.
These trends have helped sustain steady demand in the first quarter. It is most likely that even if consumer sentiment weakens due to pricing pressure, the enterprise refresh cycle and AI-enabled device innovation could provide some insulation for PC manufacturers.
Vendor Performance and Market Share
Among the top five vendors, Lenovo LNVGY retained its market-leading position with 15.2 million shipments and a 24.1% market share, up from 22.8% in the same period last year. HP Inc. HPQ followed with 12.8 million shipments, gaining modestly from last year, while Dell Technologies DELL posted a smaller increase of 3% to reach 9.6 million units. HP and Dell Technologies had a market share of 20.2% and 15.1%, respectively.