Traton SE (ETR:8TRA) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 41% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Traton
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Traton saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 32% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 16% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Traton's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Traton, it has a TSR of -34% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
The last twelve months weren't great for Traton shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 34%, including dividends. The market shed around 19%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. The three-year loss of 10% per year isn't as bad as the last twelve months, suggesting that the company has not been able to convince the market it has solved its problems. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Traton better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Traton you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.