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If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL) shareholders. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 72% drop in the share price over that period. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 25% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 12% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 9.8% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, PostNL's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 57% each year. In comparison the 35% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on PostNL's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for PostNL the TSR over the last 3 years was -65%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that PostNL shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 13%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that PostNL is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...